Abnormal Distribution

3/7/2021 – Michigan 64, Michigan State 70 – 19-3, 14-3, still Big Ten regular season champions This game was in the 17%. That's the shot Kenpom gave Michigan State at a win, and that's what it felt like: a somewhat functional basketball team playing over its head as Michigan played under its level and escaping with a win. This stands in marked contrast to the Illinois game, which was not in the bin of regular-ass outcomes. That felt like a paradigm shift in which previously unkillable Michigan—nevermind that Minnesota game—was brought low and showed an Achilles heel. Maybe an addressable one, down the road. A long-term issue. One that would be difficult to replicate, but a worry whenever a team with some athletic guards and a mountain shows up. Meanwhile this game was clearly one of Those Games from the drop. Eli Brooks left and did not return five minutes in after coming down on Marcus Bingham's foot. Rocket Watts went 7/11 on midrange shots—virtually all of them off-the-dribble long ones. cumong basketball gods [Campredon] Hunter Dickinson was stuck on 3 points for much of the game, less because of anything MSU was doing and more because he seems stuck in a late-season funk. Dickinson eventually scored on this possession but his first shot going off the side of the backboard was ominous: The officiating managed to provide MSU with six more FTAs (before Michigan put MSU on the line six times in the last minute) despite Michigan having six fewer fouls and seven more attempts at the rim. A typical passage of play was Michigan missing a decent look and MSU canning a bad one. I mean. Okay. Have a day, I guess. I'm not going to put a whole lot on a game where Michigan State shoots midrange twos at the same clip (50%)Michigan shoots at the rim. All of the above takes some remembering since the last time Michigan lost a relatively competitive game was last season. Everything else has been a win or a 20-point loss, the latter occurring just twice. So things could be worse. [After THE JUMP: closeouts on midrange jumpers should be de minimis for centers.]