You have it, you have far more. Its like mice, when you see one, you know you have 50 behind the skirting board. Having watched this drama u nfold board. Having watched this drama unfold in china, we are now in the eye of the storm, pretty much everywhere else, and it will develop very fast and have very long term consequences as it will in china. What are you expecting, marc, as you look at this . France is an example ofa look at this . France is an example of a country where the impact is being felt, not as dramatically as in italy, but fairly fast with the progress of cases and with the acknowledgement of the French Health minister on friday, we are not talking enough with other countries and come out with plans to help us coordinate how we can respond this. For europe, it is a disaster. Europe is coming out of any recession, population is on a wayne, and now we might have a recession. Populism is waning. We need to coordinate a European Response and a gh response. For instance, in 2008, you had missed your cliche who brought everyone together, a quickfire of the saving of the banks. Today, there is a new of the european commission. There is a new president of the ecb. The members are divided, they dont have the money, as we see with the budgetary crisis to have a big fiscal stimulus, and also, you cant work on Interest Rate to zero, so cant work on Interest Rate to zero, so the situation is really bad. You cant see, having the system in 2008. Stephanie, that is one striking example of that, the fed goes ahead with rate cut, and there has been no consultation with other Central Banks around the world. There is no sense this is part of a concerted effort to shore up what could be a real hit to the global economy. Right, and it was the first emergency rate cut since the 2008 financial crisis. The fact of the matter, as marc pointed out, a lot of Central Banks around the world do not have the room to manoeuvre like they did in 2008. You have the ecb and the bank ofjapan in negative territory. It is limited how much Monetary Policy can be effective in this crisis. Interest rates are not going to restart the Global Supply chain, sol going to restart the Global Supply chain, so i think it really does rely on some sort of fiscal stimulus. I think next week, when we have the uk budget, we might consider a kind of coronavirus budget. What steps are they going to ta ke budget. What steps are they going to take to help Companies Get through what could be as short but very sharp crisis . Delaying Corporate Tax payments for instance, other measures to shore up lending to companies, i think there are steps they can take, and i think to prevent Companies Like flybe for instance, companies that are operating on edge, get through the crisis. This is a uk Regional Airline that has collapsed, already in trouble but this finished it off. This is a very interesting point. It was going to be a british project about infrastructure of the long term future and even in that the economy and developing the more north of england more effectively. Now it is going to be a short term budget about an immediate crisis and everybodys froggatt has narrowed. Budget about an immediate crisis and everybodys froggatt has narrowedlj think everybodys froggatt has narrowed. think you are saying that around the world, particularly in china. China is thinking about a lot of things this year, including hosting the first biodiversity conference. The prep meeting for that had to be moved to rome, and the chinese couldnt participate because they couldnt participate because they couldnt travel. All these big events, the big calendar events this year, they are already being impacted, and you know these big conferences, if they produce a result, it is a result that has been negotiated for the six previous months. If that isnt happening, you are going to have, for example, the Climate Conference in glasgow which is already under pressure, it is going to be very difficult to produce a result, so anywhere you look, you see things beginning to unravel in unfamiliar ways. Obviously travel and tourism are going to be hit in china, and there are going to be so Many Companies on thin margins which arent going to survive. That means that there has to be domestic stimulus, some sort of clu b to be domestic stimulus, some sort of club crowd pleaser. Trying to avoid blame as well. The publishing event, you might not be preferred for is the production of volume that describes how the heroic fight was laid against the coronavirus which is going to be published in many languages. In biodiversity, you could have saved that tree, but it is going to come out. The chinese effort to seize the narrative is one of the Main Elements in this since the beginning, and you can see that organisations like the who are acting as vector orfor organisations like the who are acting as vector or for chinese propaganda. It is extraordinary. We havent heard much from russia about the coronavirus. Are there no cases there or is this something that the country doesnt watch to publicise . Iam country doesnt watch to publicise . I am amazed there is so much panic about this, because i remember that the first article, was it New York Times that was published, and it was immediately picked up by the media and politicians seem to be have been forced to react, and now we have a very strange situation when we are talking about a deadly virus which isa talking about a deadly virus which is a strain of flu, sort of, and very strange ideas are coming out. Suddenly we have ministers saying you have to wash your hands. You think, how does that help . Because they got virus it flies, it doesnt sit on your hands, and i think that personally a lot of governments are jumping on this bandwagon because they are hiding bad news. It is a wonderful opportunity. Public information point of view, we are not Health Experts so we would leave it to the Health Experts to explain why washing their hands is a good thing, but i think youre making a serious point about the reaction. Is it easier to control a reaction. Is it easier to control a reaction in a country like russia or china or even iran where you have much more central direction, people are used to being told what to do, thenit are used to being told what to do, then it might be in the us where people are not used to that direction and having to do what they are told . I think in russia, they are told . I think in russia, they are writing as much as any other media about the problem. I think it is not like anybody is hiding it, but i think it is way over in some countries, and i think the government, some governments are blatantly using this to cover up bad news because the economy was already going down. To say that the coronavirus. So this would be going down. To say that the coronavirus. So this would be used as an excuse. I coronavirus. So this would be used as an excuse. L was coronavirus. So this would be used as an excuse. I was going to say the us has done the opposite, saying the virus is contained. Trump has made a series of misleading statements, including telling people they should go to works if there symptoms are mild and a miracle will happen and it will disappear. Because the weather is going to get warmer. The reality is that there are so few to cases in the us because of low testing. They have wasted three months, completely unprepared for this, and they are having extreme difficulty getting these tests ready and out, and ifear that once they do get testing up and running, you are going to see a massive spike in cases, and the us will show up how wea k cases, and the us will show up how weak the Us Public Health system is. You have 28 million americans uninsured, ii you have 28 million americans uninsured, 11 million undocumented immigrants who are too scared to go in and use Public Health facilities. This could turn into a Public Health crisis in the us, unlike what we have seen in europe, because they have seen in europe, because they have National Health services. dont think we have seen much sign of the Surgeon General of the United States are saying to calm down and this is what you need to do. You do have a war of words between what trump is saying and what Public Health officials are saying, and he really needs to stop talking and allow the Public Health officials that are running the cdc. It is interesting because it is election year, and that is the other thing we are going to be talking about today between now and november, and this week. This week, mrs war week. Decided her profession is no longer president ial candidate. Michael bloomberg returned to reporting news rather than making it. Pete buttigieg began the search for anotherjob to add to his long and varied cv and amy lets get to work klobuchar concluded this is nojob for her. Smiling all the way to the democrats nominating convention in milwaukee in july is joe biden, the former Vice President provided he can shake off Bernie Sanders. What we can say with some confidence is that the next president of the United States will be a white, male septugenarian. How did he manage it, this allows a right lazarus like resurrection . That is going to go down as one of the most remarkable comebacks in american history. Everyone was counting him down and out, he lost the first four states of the democratic primary and running out of money. Polls were indicating he would do well in south carolina, but not anywhere near the resounding victory that he recorded. I actually thought he would do well. I didnt think he would do this well, but amongst all the democratic primary candidates, he was the only one with solid support amongst African Americans who are the backbone of the Democratic Party. Having served as Barack Obamas Vice President for eight years, there is a huge amount of goodwill for him amongst the African American community. Bernie sanders doesnt have that. He has made inroads with latino voters, but if you look at the contest ahead, they favour the kind of electorate thatjoe biden does well with. This includes more state with a disproportionate number of African American voters. Tuesday is michigan, which has 125 delegates up forgrabs, michigan, which has 125 delegates up for grabs, Bernie Sanders won michigan in 2016 running against Hillary Clinton. Butjoe biden has an enormous amount of goodwill there for having pulled off the saviour of the auto industry. It was our rust belt state. He does do well. It will belt state. He does do well. It will be interesting to see how he does they are. It is still a two man race at this point, but i thinkjoe biden has the edge. I think it will be ha rd has the edge. I think it will be hard for Bernie Sanders to catch up, and the real question is how does Bernie Sanders handle that . Does he go on and complain about this being a rigged primary and the Corporate Democratic Party being against him, or does he really rallied behind who isjoe biden, or does he really rallied behind who is joe biden, who or does he really rallied behind who isjoe biden, who looks like he has this nomination . But you know, i am getting 70, and i can see there is a role for us, so this is the good news. You will be on this programme even when you are 80. In this world, the most powerful country of the world, who has a septuagenarian, there is nothing wrong with that. I can disagree, because the problem Withjoe Biden can disagree, because the problem with joe biden is can disagree, because the problem Withjoe Biden is that he presents himself with a special interest other coalition with americans, some latinos, jews, unions, educated young tech people, but on the other side, you have trump who has this very solid coalition of working class, lower middle class and rich people, and if the economy is doing well, that. That is a good point, because Hillary Clinton had the African American vote because of bill and the history, and it wasnt enough when it came to it. He she won the popular vote, but didnt have enough electorates for the electoral college. didnt have enough electorates for the electoral college. I am struck by the contrast between these old white men, if you like, and the midterm. What did the midterms returned to congress. They return to this rainbow, young, Diverse Group of people which seemed at one point to express what the Democratic Party was going to be about once it moved on, and now we have gone back into this. The other thing is, when you look at how trump is reacting to this, his line is he is trying to provoke bernie into saying it is rigged and unfair. He is saying it for him in his rallies. There you see the democrats, per bernie, he cant get in. The third thing is they are going to now spend eight months hammering away atjoe biden and investigating all of that, and that will just not and investigating all of that, and that willjust not go away. Ifjoe biden cant cool that off now, it is going to be a serious drag on his campaign. The democrats are can the democrats are content with losing. Would you ever fit joe democrats are content with losing. Would you ever fitjoe biden to fight trump if you are not expecting to lose . Fight trump if you are not expecting to lose . It fight trump if you are not expecting to lose . It is remarkable, and what i find even more remarkable is how different President Trump is. He is trying to get his troops out of afghanistan, failing, they lost a war which lasted 19 years. He is printing money like mad, pumping into wall street. Nobody says a word. He says ive done this, i have done that, we are living better. No, nobody is living better, but nobody objects. This is absolutely amazing. In that sense. You think he will win again . I think he will win again because, excuse me joe win again . I think he will win again because, excuse mejoe biden, because, excuse mejoe biden, because donald trump is weak in one point the economy might collapse. He is pumping the money in not because he wants to give more money. Last point, the unknown factor that could mess up the political pattern. The thing trump had going for him was the economy was very strong, and with coronavirus likely to possibly a recession, going into the 2020 into november, that puts him in a weakened position no doubt. november, that puts him in a weakened position no doubt. I wonder if that is why mike pompeo has started to talk about the china virus rather than coronavirus. Look, trump has not expanded his base. He has never gone above 50 approval rating. He won the 2016 election by 80,000 votes. Lets face it, it doesnt take that much, and i think there is a huge amount of motivation to get rid of trump who ever the candidate is, and you have seen the turnout in the democratic primaries has been out of this. Turnout in the democratic primaries has been out of this. He is like tony blair, saying something that is no true and nobody questions it, and i find it remarkable. He got for pinocchio is for claiming. I refer you to the wonderful Washington Post pinocchio count. They set all the time. A week from now will be the ninth anniversary of syrias civil war. In idlib, they wont be celebrating. Thousands of people have been displaced as syrian troops advance on rebel positions, their way cleared by russian bombardment from the air. After the syrians and the turks clashed with bloody consequences, president s erdogan and putin negotiated in moscow for six hours and then announced a ceasefire. Neither appeared to think it necessary to invite mr assad. Alexander, if putting is able to engineer a ceasefire which isnt holding 100 but better than whats prevailed before, why doesnt he just make the decision that this war needs to end now and use his considerable firepower, his considerable firepower, his considerable economic power and influence, to bring that about . First of all, i think that putin cant stop this war, because when the russians moved in, basically the assumption was very will be out in about two or three months. That is what the generals were saying. U nfortu nately, what the generals were saying. Unfortunately, it didnt work out that way because there were too many countries in the world. Its not like one force fighting another. There is about a dozen others involved, somebody is supplying someone with arms, and so on. This situation with erdogan, basically just took upon himself to match, because he went to nato for help, everybody said, sorry, we can say things, but we are too busy and cant help you stop he went to the eu for help, no, not really interested. He did upset europe by opening orders and refugees flooding m, opening orders and refugees flooding in, so there was no mood to help him. Now he found himself in a very delicate situation, so i think putin use this against him, as i know erdogan was actually promoting an meeting in ankara to resolve the issue, and putin said he was too busy. Eventually, we realised that asa busy. Eventually, we realised that as a erdogan is coming to moscow. That is the point. Everybodyjumps to putins tuner right now, not because of the west, and. Europe and the us is out of the middle east, but the problem is the deal with erdogan is dead, as the greek pro minister said yesterday, and that means europe will not help turkey to keep migrants in, and as a result, all the money of europe is now going to greece in order to shore up the frontier, because the la st shore up the frontier, because the last thing europeans want in this climate of possible recession, populism, so have a new reliable arrival of refugees, and the priority is not turkey. The priority is grace. Isnt that the reason that it was thought britain post brexit worried about the issue of immigration, western europe worried about immigration, the eurozone and economy there, and because it had political toxicity, that would be a huge incentive for them to want to be involved in the middle east to cut off the demand, as it were, by reducing their instability in countries like libya and syria . com pletely countries like libya and syria . completely agree, but i think looking back on previous conflicts, what you find, for example in the balkans, that the europeans, they are not very effective until the americans come in, and it is the americans come in, and it is the American Power to mobilise others, to coerce, too casual. That is the power. It didnt happen, there was lots of concern, but nothing happened. The real absence here is the United States. The troops in the balkans where europeans who kept pace. Yes they wear, but they didnt end the war until the United States came in. The us withdrawalfrom syria means that this has just came in. The us withdrawalfrom syria means that this hasjust been left to be fought out as a proxy war between russia, iran and turkey, but there is a huge humanitarian crisis building on the border that europe will eventually have to deal with. I agree with you, the 2016 agreement seems to have fallen apart completely. Turkey accused the eu of not honouring the financial obligations under the deal, but we are going to hit a crisis point again, and use our eu Foreign Ministers meeting this week in zagreb, talking about a possible buffer zone to protect civilians in idlib, but they admitted they had no mechanism to enforce or achieve that, so what do they do once you have hundreds of thousands of people streaming across the border . I dont think sending Border Defence guards to greece is going to solve this. The European Union dont want these refugees because it mixes. From africa and the subcontinent. The fa ct africa and the subcontinent. The fact is europe doesnt want it and europe doesnt have room for it, and as was europe doesnt have room for it, and as was said, the german example showed that a sudden influx of a million or so syrians would provoke an extreme surge of the extreme right, and this is what we want to avoid. I think what erdogan was hoping was not to use the threat of refugees as blackmail, but also to put pressure on the eu to internally put pressure on the eu to internally put pressure on putin to pull back on forces backing assads assault on idlib, and turkey is in an impossible situation right now. When you say a sads attack on idlib, it is his territory. It is syrian territory, so you are basically saying they are taking turkish territory. You have made the point that russians would be in and out quickly. History proves that in this case, but even so, they are the biggest player in that, so what will putin say to assad to bring this conflict to an end to allow putin to get out . Assad is now completely russias creature, there is no question of syria as an independent nation not looking to moscow as support. Lets make one thing clear. Russia moved in because the mess was created by the request. You made that point. Given time is against us at. Russia could not afford to have another libya, so to say that russia should pull out. Russia wants to get out, so what do they need to do to do it . The fact is. The fighting of many sides has to start. The west did not provoke the syrian crisis, the appeal well with the syria in the spring and then the atrocious suppression of the Syrian Regime provoked. It is not the west. The crisis with the iraq war. There is one guilt in syria, and it is russia in iran. Both assad and putin are using people as weapons of war. They are creating migration, desperate refugee flows as a weapon to use against the European Union. In assads case, to preserve his position, as putins case, to preserve his position in europe. As i was told a few weeks ago, there are work claims being committed in idlib, so we have given it a small bit of attention, so hopefully there will be more information on this, andi will be more information on this, and i am very grateful to you all. Thats it for dateline london for this week. Were back next week at the same time. Goodbye. Hello there. After the lovely sunshine that we had in many areas yesterday, todays weather looks very different. Have a look at the satellite picture first of all. This stream of cloud is coming in from the atlantic. It is going to bring with it some rain. Most of the rain on that weather front there is coming into western parts of the country today. Thatll then sweep eastwards over night tonight, clearing away on sunday morning to be followed by sunshine and showers and some slightly cooler and fresher air as well. But this is the picture through the rest of the day, and we have more rain to come in scotland, particularly in the west of the country. Heavy rain, too. Some sunshine around moray firth. It will turn wetter later across Northern Ireland and there will still be some drips and drabs of rain and drizzle across england and wales, mainly over the hills in the west. For all of us, the winds are strengthening through the rest of the day. Maybe touching gale force in parts of scotland. To south westerly wind, so it is slowly lifting those temperatures to around 11 12 widely by the end of the afternoon. But this wet weather continues to affect scotland and Northern Ireland into the evening, and then overnight sweeps its way eastwards towards england and wales. It is going to be heavy rain over the hills, and very quickly, we see a whole rash of showers coming in from the west. It will be windy overnight, quite a noisy night, much milder than it has been of late, mind you. We will still have some rain to clear away first thing from the south east corner of england, and then essentially on sunday, it is a day of sunshine and blustery showers. Not too many showers across eastern scotland, eastern england, where we will see the best of the sunshine. Further west, more frequent, heavier showers. Hail, thunder, snow in the scottish mountains and temperatures away to around 7 9 degrees in the afternoon. It is mixed weather over the weekend. It doesnt get any better for the start of next week. Another strong jet stream, fishing very quickly this wetter weather in across the uk. Another area of low pressure, while eastern areas on monday might start to dry with some early sunshine, it will cloud over. We have rain arriving during the morning in the western side of the uk, pushing into eastern areas in the afternoon. Again, the rain heavier over the hills, all adding to that risk of further flooding, and temperatures of 9 10d typically. Very windy into tuesday as well, very mild across the southern parts of the uk. It does cool off as the week goes on further north. Essentially, it is an unsettled week ahead. Sunshine or longer spells of rain. This is bbc news. The headlines at midday a second person in the uk has died after testing positive for coronavirus. Milton keynes hospital is isolating patients or staff who came into contact with him. 21 people have the virus on a cruise ship off San Francisco around 140 britons are on board. All passengers and crew will be tested for the coronavirus. Those that need to be quarantined will be quarantined. Those that require additional medical attention will receive it. Scotland womens six nations match with france has been postponed after a home player contracted the virus. After 1pm, well be putting your questions and concerns to a virologist specialising in coronavirus
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