Transcripts For CSPAN2 C-SPAN2 Weekend 20090912

>> [inaudible conversations] >> thank you, all, for coming. to this first talk of the year in school foreign service asian studies program series. i am jordan said, the chair of the east. it is a pleasure to introduce our colleague, michael greene, to enlighten us about the japanese elections. mike and associate professor of international relations here at georgetown. he's also the japan share at the center for strategic and international studies. mike has worn many hats, and has a remarkable career both and academics out and i guess we call it e real world and politics. he is the author of "hermene japan" 1998, and more recently "japan's reluctantealism to" 2003, and numerous other publications on the japanese policy and international relations. he has served in several capacities on the national security council, was a fellow for the -- in the council for foreign relations. he's also been a stafford in the japanese national diet, which means we are heari from a person who can speak from the inside as well as an expert from the other side of the pacific on today's topic. he's a journalist for numerous nepapers, both in japan and here. fulbright fellow at tokyo university, and the list could go on. but i have to tell you that mike myriad's legend preceded all of this in my own career when i was starting out in graduate school around 1990, 1991. i have not met the man, but he was already known as the victor in an international debate competition held in the japanese language along tms of non-native japanese speakers in which the legendary mike green wiped out the canadians and the italians and the frsome nada nationality team andas a victory and everybody was talking about his achievements in japanese because we were all struggling with the language of the time. so i have known michael greene just as a figure in the very long time and have gotten to know him as a colleague and i am very eager to hear it as i am sure you all are how he wl enlighten us on thi interesting moment in the japanese party politics. perhaps the most interesting moment in our lifetime at least michael's and mine. so without further ado, i give you michael greene. [applause] >>hank you, jordan, very generous. for those of you here that for my students i can tell you you can find the te of the show and it does not -- it is indefinable. i am glad to see that japan is gathering so mh attention and so much interest. this is a really fascinating election and fascinating kind in japanese politics. it is also ihink a good chance for us to remember how important japan is. you often hear this phrase japan passing these days and worry that china is getting all the attention anpeople don't care about japan anymore. there's a lot of good reasons why that's the case. japan got a lot of attention in 1988 and 99 in the united states because people tught japan was a major threat and there were pools where four americans said japan is a threat than the soviet union, our major in any of the day. today, americans in polls like the chicago council or her pew rate japan as the third most trustworthy country in the world after great britain and canada. so, and some ways the lack of tension japan hasn't been because japan is it important, 's because things are going pretty well but this election has added spice and excitement as a time to remember how important japan as. i want to get into debate about purchasing power and other things but japan is still the second or if you like the third largest economy, second largest contributor to the world bank imf all the major institutions that uphold the new liberal system. the basis for american presence and engagement in asia and quietly one of the closest partners the united states has been the key 20 process and the g-7 process. and in the security counci when japan is on the security council. wh i want to try to answer today are four questions which are onveryone's mind i think, first how did this happen? how did the ldp go from 300 seats and theowerouse, the 480 seat which is the more powerful house, the part of the diet that besides the prime minister, how did it go from 300 to 119? and how did the opposition demoatic party go from 112 seats to 308 basically switching positions? secondly, what does this mean for the future of japanese politics we at the beginningf the end, the end of the beginning, this revolution, where does this put us in terms of the next epoch in japanese politics? third, what does this mean for japan's foreign policy relationship with the united states with asia and the japanese economy, and fourth, is it true that mrs. yukio hatoyama was sent to zenas on a space ship where she met with two weeks with tom cruise? [laughter] i will begin with i don't know. but it's one of the more -- she is a former television personality and has gone out and said she was in fact abducted by aliens. mr. yukio hatoyama said she had a dream. it's one of the more colorful aspects. in the united states we often have presidents with brothers or mothers w are colorful and interesting and we have here definitely interesting character in the japanese political world. to sta on why this happened in a lot of ways you can answer this one would be to look at the post or structure of japanese politics. the so-called 1965 system called the 1955 system because that is the year the liberal party and democratic party came together ad formed, you've got it, the liberal democratic party which to confuse you is the conservative party in japan. the ldp survived and basically dominated japanese politics until this election. they fell out of power once in 93 brief a interesting precedent to look at when we look what's happening thi time but they came right back and dominated the political world and japan. sometimes people compare to the pri or the cdu in germany or democratic party on the united states before world war ii but it was in many ways even more dominant than those examples. if dominated because ihad a fairly simple governing philoshy which is aligned with the united states opposed mmunism and grow the economy and what the bureaucracy and business show their excellee. and in many ways the ldp benefited from the fact that it reflected the international structure. e bipolar structure where in asia the u.s. is dominant and when the cold war ended, it was quite logical that the domestic politics were also change because it was a reflection of e collision between communism and democracy between socialism and free markets and so forth. the ldp did collapse within a few years of the end of the cold war, and prime minister formed the government in '93 by pulling together a variety of smaller parties, new parties and defectors from the ldp and he stayed in power about two years before h was felled by scand and the ldp came back in collusion with their enemies as socialists. and that lasted about a year and then the ldp down to the socialists and dominated anderson's butt in many ways, when the cold war ended, the liberal democratic party was a dead man walking, was a corpse that was like a chicken with his head cut off, still moving. it was increasingly corrupt, bankrupt for new ias, tied to economic model that wasn't working in any mor particularly afte the collapse and the@@x x t. one of the few ldp candidates that made it easier to the ldp by running against it. he was a maverick and got elected in april, 2001, not in the traditional way that leaders were elected to talk show politics buty appealing to the rank and file members of the rty and public and he stayed in power of the factional balance but public opinion, dynamism, his popularity is what kept him the prime minister, and he left quite popular. he said he would leave in 2006 and he did and his popularity is quite high but the key was he ran against the party. he didn't care if the ldp died. he wanted to reform and change thearty. he wanted to break the old dinosaurs. wanted to bring more fluidity to the japanese politics, younger politicians, when an. precisely the kind of people that came in with the dpj. and in 2005 he n the enormous victory until this victory by the dpj was one of the biggest in postwar japanese history and he won by kicking opponents of reform out of the party, standing in elections on number dynamic interestingeople known as [inaudible] children and fighting against his party while the democratic party watched on the selines and couldn't get into the fray. but when he stepped down, his successors, all good men with good ideas but one fundamental flaw, they didn't run against the ldp. they referred tohe old style of factional politics. they were a huge mistake popularity when they were elected and they waited and waited and the popularity went down and in all three cases was in the teens or 20s and than they had to step dn. had any one of the three politicians immediately called election this most recent election might not have happened because the ldp would have had for years of control. the reason they didn't is because they were afraid of losing their majority. the hat to a third majority which allowed them to override the upper house, which was controlled by the opposition after 2007. and they were thinking things would get better as the water steadily filled up and the next guy came so it was almost inevitable as they were ralyd afraid to call an election until last minute to basically required by the constution. forced to push bills through with enormous political capital and years two-thirds majority the upper house coul block them. it was almost inevitable this wouldappen. it was made even worse by the economy, 1.9% average g growth since 1991 the gap between the rich and poor in japan looks pretty good. it's gone up but it's not gone up as much as most of the modern industrial countries. such as france where it's gone down below japan petraeus o.d. corporation when you look at it on the chart it goes up a little bit but not as much as the u.s. or u.k. or other countries. but inapan where the ldp success was a part based on the idea economic growth would benefit everyone, the gap was big enough to start to cause a backlash especially against his reforms which started to become popular. people wanted change. but they began to worry that too mu change, too much market reform and market principles was creating these on just gaps of income in japan and the democratic party capitalize on that. on the financial crisis also as yo can imagine was a huge blow to the government of japan, the economies shnk more than any other in the oecd. you can't win elections given all the other problems you can't win when that is happening. is the economy people vote on. so, the japanese people were fed up ahey were fed up when he came and promised reforms and big change and breaking up the old system. t they didn't trust ldp to do that anymore and wanted to throw the bums out. to give you some numbers that bear this out, 69%, can't read my and writing, 69% of the voters said recently in one poll the change of government was a good thing. 69% means a lot of people who voted for the ldp also said, you know what the change of government as a good thi. thisad to happen. the old system wasn't working for us. .. >> they want the two-party system. 46% said the democratic party will n change japanese politic s. 66% said the dpg won too big, too much. what the japanese public careerly wanted was to throw out the old ones and create a competitive dynamic two-party system. the poll suggest they wouldn't necessarily be unhappy. they just don't want the same ldp. as one friend of mine put it, regime change in japan, dot, dot, dot, details to follow. this was mostly about throwing out the old, breaking up the system. opening up japanese politics. the ldp was not delivering. it was not in my view an overwhelming endorsement. the japanese public has real questions about the dpj can deliver. that goes for many of the people. but they wanted to deal a real blow. so in one sense there is a revolution. the japanese people for the first time have really cut through the ballot box, forced regime change. 1992 was different. 1993 was in die coalitions formed, it was a not popular vote in the change. this is a popular vote creating regime change. so in that sense, it' a real revolution. but there were questions about what really changed. so the next thing is the question of what will change? what's new in japanese litics? i think there are going to be some important changes, at least in politics. policies is another question. but in politics there will be some changes i think. first the democratic party ran one of their principal themes was anti-bureaucracy. it got a littleingly too ties. but the public is really frustrated. especially the bureaucracy that manages tensn. they are not as unhappy with defense or finance. buthey are pretty darn unhappy with the bureaucracy that manages tension. the dpj is going to me constitutional changes. they have announced they are eliminating what is called the meaning of deputies. the top in parliamentary system the top are politicians. but the administrative vice minister, what we would call the deputy secretary in this parliamentary system, is the top bureaucrat. and the politicians come and go. bu the bureaucracy kind of runs itself. especially each bureaucracy has its own corporate powerful ethic or what some people call stove piping. what former national security .dvisors . some japanese scientists have argued that it has been a feudal society with warring clans. presentence pa. closure bureaucracies. 200 years . go it was samurai, but it's bureaucracy. but the clan culture is more powerful some argue than modern western institutionalization. it's a little overblown. but there is something to it. the dpj wants to break that. which is the meeting of the vice ministers. anin this meeting the vice minister of trade and finance and farm city a health and welfare, they cide what goes to the cabinet. typically they have a veto. especially the powerful industries. t@ey come out with a conclusion i'm not going to touch your rice bowl if you don't touch my rice bowl. there are a lot of issues today that are hard to solve because of this stove piping. and the dpj says no more. from now on the politicians will meet and we will decide how we're going to resolve these disputes. and we're going to force bureaucracies to work together. we are going to ta power and give it to anoer. that's going to be a real shock to the japanese bureaucracy they've also said they are going to put 100 appointees in. at first a lot of people worried that they would be chopping off the top 100 burucrats. and as much as bureaucracy is popular in japan, the reality is japan has no strong think tanks. the dpj has with few exceptions never been in government. they won't be able to run the country. if they had fired 100, it would have been absolute chaos. as one friend of mineaid like monkeys trying to fly an airplane. which shows you what the bureaucrats think o the politicians. what they are going to do is not invite all the bureaucrats but have lots of politics watching over them and keeping tabs on them. and the bureaucrats won't like it. and it's going to force them to respond more and more to these political appointees. there are about 70 now, so 100 while it sounds like a lot. the politicians wille there. who had a much cozier relationship. the dpj has created or will create the national strategy buy or. the nfc, the national economic council, and putting themn one office under the prime minister. why? so they can control decisions. and the first thing it will do is decide on the budget. they are going to have to decide over the course of the fall what the budget priorities are. right away they are going to be from the requirement office telling the bureaucrats the funny priorities. now the bureaucrats have already put forward the proposals. it's not clear how much they will change. it's no doubt the ruling party will want to make its mark. the head of the knew bureau is deputy prime minister. anso it will have a lot of power. anothdr thing that's going to obably change is the ldp. you don't lose an election this badly and just sort of keep whistling past the grave yard. i don't think he's going to tie or go away. t it is going to haveo rejuvenate itself. and they will have their own election for their new leader. and one thing to watch for is whether they pick somebody young and dynamic. people talk about older or more younger leaders. the ldp is probably going to have to change because of this if it's going to remain competitive. which the japanese people say they want. big business is going to have to change. the business federation has been extremely cozy with the ldp. they started giving money to the democratic party when they realized they might win. for most of this 1955 system they gave major funding to the liberal party. mainly to be left alone as much as possible. let the ldp gerrymander, keep their majority by keeping the rule voters happy, and big business will contie exporting and focusing on production over nsumers so is that they continue growi the japanese ecom