it is not going to save the local markets or the regional markets in the west, thatjust isn't going to happen, so i'm afraid that the uk, germany, the united states are going to have to go through these recessions, most likely because of the inflation and the central bank's attempt to tamp that inflation back down. steve 0dland, thank you very much. that's the view from america, but what can we learn from people on the ground? let's go to beijing and the managing directorfor greater china for the economist group, qian lu. welcome to the programme. you are in beijing. is there an atmosphere of revenge spending in the air there right now? absolutely. the economic recovery in china post—covid has beenjust impressive, but the more fundamental question is, how sustainable is this? we at the economist intelligence unit are looking at china's gdp growth to be 5.7% this year, much higher than the government
target of around 5%. in fact, the 5.7 already points to the fact that china will contribute to one third of the entire global economic growth this year, so that is quite impressive. that is a very significant contribution to the world economy. qian, are chinese consumers more interested right now in spending at home, or are they also looking to spend abroad once again? the question is both, but we need to look at the short term and a bit of the longer term. so for the short term, especially this year, the absent majority would be domestic spending, but going forward, especially when it comes to tourism and travel, outbound, that will start to pick up but most likely from the latter half of 2024. in the rest of the world of course we're dealing with a pretty dire cost of living crisis, and i wonder if chinese consumers are looking at what is happening elsewhere and that's adding to that sense
right now? absolutely. the economic recove in right now? absolutely. the economic recovery in china _ right now? absolutely. the economic recovery in china post-covid - right now? absolutely. the economic recovery in china post-covid has - recovery in china post—covid has been _ recovery in china post—covid has been impressive, but the more fundamental question is that how sustainable is this? we at the economist intelligence unit i looking — economist intelligence unit i looking at chinese gdp growth to be 5.7% looking at chinese gdp growth to be 57% this_ looking at chinese gdp growth to be 5.7% this year, much higher than the government— 5.7% this year, much higher than the government target of around 5%. in fact the _ government target of around 5%. in fact the 5~7 — government target of around 5%. in fact the 5.7 already points to the fact the 5.7 already points to the fact that — fact the 5.7 already points to the fact that china will contribute to one third — fact that china will contribute to one third of the entire global economic growth this year, so that is quite _ economic growth this year, so that is quite impressive. that is a very significant — is quite impressive. that is a very significant contribution to the world — significant contribution to the world economy.— significant contribution to the world economy. qian, chinese consumers _ world economy. qian, chinese consumers more _ world economy. qian, chinese consumers more interested i world economy. qian, chinese i consumers more interested right world economy. qian, chinese - consumers more interested right now in spending at home, or are they also looking to spend abroad once again? also looking to spend abroad once auain? , ., , , again? the question is both, but we need to look — again? the question is both, but we need to look at _ again? the question is both, but we need to look at the _ again? the question is both, but we need to look at the short _ again? the question is both, but we need to look at the short term - again? the question is both, but we need to look at the short term and i again? the question is both, but we| need to look at the short term and a bit of— need to look at the short term and a bit of the _ need to look at the short term and a bit of the longer term. where for the short— bit of the longer term. where for the short term, especially this year. — the short term, especially this year. the _ the short term, especially this year, the majority would be domestic spending _ year, the majority would be domestic spending -- — year, the majority would be domestic spending —— so forthe year, the majority would be domestic spending —— so for the short term. going _ spending —— so for the short term. going forward, especially when it contes_ going forward, especially when it comes to —
beenjust impressive, but the more fundamental question is, how sustainable is this? we at the economist intelligence unit are looking at chinese gdp growth to be 5.7% this year, much higher than the government target of around 5%. in fact the 5.7 already points to the fact that china will contribute to one third of the entire global economic growth this year, so that is quite impressive. that is a very significant contribution to the world economy. qian, chinese consumers more interested right now in spending at home, or are they also looking to spend abroad once again? the question is both, but we need to look at the short term and a bit of the longer term. so for the short term, especially this year, the majority would be domestic spending, but going forward, especially when it comes to tourism and travel, outbound, that will start