third round of talks between iraq and six major world powers is getting underway in geneva with mixed messages coming from those taking part us getting a deal would be quote very hard while russia has been considerably more well two weeks ago the talks came very close to reaching what's being described as an interim deal on a bronze nuclear program. the aim is to build confidence between the two sides before they can seem a long time. it's going around itself. ayatollah khamenei said he supports the call but has criticized israel which has been skeptical about the entire process. we're from our correspondent in geneva after this report the negotiators are back in geneva. the is catherine ashton is representing the six world powers over the next three days. less is keen to keep preure on to ron that sanctions will be tough and while president barack obama give diplomacy a chance to bear fruit. all this. as pres the united states me maintaining all options to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons i think that is a task that is were conducted. the iranian nuclear program is spread over several sites. there's a nuclear power plant that will share as well as sites for uranium mining enrichment there are also research facilities which can manufacture fuel rods. and in twenty fourteen a reactor capable of making weapons grade plutonium is due to go on line in iraq. iran says its nuclear program is purely civilian in nature. but western governments suspect decide to also be used to develop and build a nuclear weapon. sanctions have hit the wrong heart the oil embargo alone has cost the country sixty percent of its international revenues those measures have brought him onto the table. iran once the negotiations to lead to an easing of sanctions. in return germany in the five permanent un security council members want more transparency. they also want all halted construction on the rr reactor and a freeze on uranium enrichment. iran's supreme leader remains insistent that his country has a right to a nuclear program. a digitally at club level. issued at eleven in a speech broadcast live on state television. i will not only the money he said he would not intervene and details of the negotiations that's being seen as a nod of approval that the escalation policy followed by a presenter on raw honey. come monday he said there were broken lines iran would not cross. so the positions are clear going into the talks the negotiators say the potential for a historic agreement is there. for the very latest from geneva less going out to our correspond to our entrees the author joins us from the talks. this is a high level of expectation. for these conversations will we see a breakthrough this time around. it is possible we have two more days to go with a us based occasion suppose from defenses but to demand that they have it would've meant to. it's not been constructed by the evidence some posts on the show was dissatisfied if it's only been up in the eu list and cocoa until the bills secondly in round one small section that to dispatch the farm cash money the reason all the bad and the best in the russian supper to cook it and said it's not clear yet but up to you a view on this is at the spy it is only giving it to the mission that good. yes it is unknown to you smoked of technology but not the specific guarantee that it also quotes the foam enrichment of doing what about the israeli position always call the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu has expressed vehement opposition to any deal would have invented the past. but seventy to stiffen the position of the french bid to reach that could already see at the restaurant in the fullness of our fabulous. and it did to the demands and brought healing and vanessa to reject or cut it. it is also the step of the poses of the us because yes president obama has said that congrats in his bed. woohoo was to name all sanctions and to applaud the nintendo could actually be irresponsible if it's a physio these talks. as most porous and geneva on the sides of her a suicide bomber in egypt's sinai region is attacked by scaring off duty soldiers reportedly killing eleven and seriously wounding another thirty four witnesses said that the attacker drove a car filled with explosives into military convoy on the road between iraq and al qaeda is so this will cause to begin a plate in the insurgency by militant islam is in sinai the region has seen a surge in violence since the minute the acid in the brotherhood that has come and more seem to mind. the european union has awarded its toll on us the human rights to the courageous pockets tony gill who has risked a lot in the struggle for adult education. sixteen year old manuel use of science despite being shot in the head by the taliban for that accepting that he is the sucker off prize in the name of god lala spoke out for the fifty seven million children worldwide deprived of education. also because of forced marriages and child trafficking sixteen year old mother of a youssef say was the center of attention in the european parliament and the teenage campaign a huge ten latest appearance in the spotlight to push the coolest the fight against the oppression of children in the struggle for more education. and the eye i own an xbox and pc edition art updates the restaurant. a bloke. and thank you song the speech that the deep impression upon them and the anyone who is just heard the girl and listen to her speech can only be deeply moved. i think we've seen a girl today who was more likely to defeat the fanaticism of the taliban and the drones up toward them the meeting with the meeting i feel motivated and inspired by his feelings young woman in the system or her wherever i have the possibility to have political influence. she's my hero. i ditched it the knot on the receipt that the use of the road rise to one of the fight against the oppression of women and killed by the taliban in pakistan's stopped fighting the irrigated got engaged and nearly cost her life some of the incumbent shorts had an impact on the school bus. since that attack. she's taken on the extremists. by spreading the message that knowledge is the best response. well is to do cod un climate talks in warsaw and there's little sign of progress. the stalks and laying the groundwork for a global deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions and teen years are one because of the pta is money well thanks to that extreme weather is causing almost two hundred billion dollars worth of damage every year. much of that damage to the pool countries that cannot afford to foot the bill as a result the demanding much more help from rich countries. here's the latest knock off two more germany's environment minister peter meyer have a clear message the delegates of the climate change convention. he said all countries has come to an agreement to combat climate change by twenty fifteen and warned of consequences if any it would be done. but darn it this agreement today six cents will be one of the biggest priorities for germany to cover the filling as it must apply to all countries even with the united states as well as china could be no exceptions that were working on it that's our goal the silks of exposed a rift between rich and poor nations developing countries to none more fun than today to deal with the effects of climate change they don't do the bulk of responsibility for the problem rests with wealthier countries insurance expensive already begun crunching the numbers of me i put on a global data bank so we can calculate the damage as a result whether to natural disasters around the world each year it will break that down to developing countries. and then except a certain portion of that bill we're looking at ten billion dollars sale last summer gemini seems keen to lead by example that smile just takes some thirty million euros to help developing countries fight climate change funerals have been held on the town and on into sunday and the victims of monday's intense storms sixteen people were killed when struck and cleopatra. dumped several months' worth of rain onto the island in the space of just a few laps the last night that weather system moved to the italian mainland being the capital rome and the silent force the country's top. emil should teach them some nbc gets an idea of the devastation. tony cummings is primary blue heels mad as in rent everything is now cement under a torrent of war tactics lounge said the north on sunday near the cleanup has peed on the downfall and massive amounts of mind and makes thousands of buildings streets and bridges across the island. that's the way it is all stitched each. nothing in the area is working properly. communication is difficult. i'm the greatest damage has been suffered by the inhabitants in the sixties that took place to do with this in my queue many beyond just coming to ten's meet the federal safety of monday's storm. these people have the lcd everything and some almost drowned in the inheritance i'm tired and i were able to swim through a window to escape if we've lost three cars at our house lies in ruins. i no longer have the light. you're not the italian government has promised twenty million units in emergency aid. but given the scale of destruction that one cannot steal. so i can see a pattern for new trainer didn't just mean its meeting of the contents means some businesses in our chairs and german steel maker to simcoe have been dropping after house talks to sell its loss making plant in the us state of alabama but not another problematic side in brazil which has been called as olson agreed to pay gem of a low rates until it upon him was the one hundred and fifty million euros into price fixing rao. the steel make it colluded with brussels the same time prices for reynolds when switching between two best one and two thousand and eleven. already pays at least two hundred million years in fines for price collusion. along with other members of a car. what does he hold has been watching the reaction to last on the mark is she sentences find out perfect. one simple with one bag. chairman steele egotistical finally made some progress to sell its us unit but the company has to keep its loss making brazilian steel make a way to understand sushi as well worst performance in the dax the german market didn't move that much say this is a pretty relaxed into buying the shares after reaching new all time high heel waiting for it to accept christ. she is so freaking cool made to perform very well the company is planning an ipo of its russian units which promises much needed money. total silence and lack of numbers into more detail than forty eight starting off in french that when the dax. ended the day it very slightly to tear a tree the sox fifteen supreme up slightly to the downside. in new york trading is still underway also pretty much slacked on the down at the moment and you're using that against the dollar at one dollars thirty four. well the tokyo motor show has been and is still mostly green cars catching the line might be things like the sand and clay i can be showcasing the electric drum about the future of the run of bells were small the ultra efficient. dr is child's play and i do mean that literally the single he just needs to human touch and off you go the steering wheel in these two it's a concept cars instead of dynasty is using phony movements which also controls the speech. the blog window it takes to drive installed wind and dust. it may lead some pics that elliot is sit in cars like this will soon be a common sight there are many devices these days you'll find a true human emotions such as smartphones or videogames with umno polls and the cars still use the old interface steering wheel and brake pedals on the other day we thought we'll then we can develop a new way to control cars more people even children can thrive in an american. we love the lord released on the tokyo motor show is the future with the loss of one of many going on two hundred and seventy nine to become a kid is applying for the eye amongst them they said they viewed it as it is ladies night out. it's aimed at people who want environmental friendliness combined with performance and styling. it's meant to give to and to run for its money. i'm mistaken clean break and that could be back in mn this time with him to look at the roundabout yemen where the sale society review and will be looking at trees lesions in brazil as a mentor is a soccer world cup all that and more in just one ew. fruit. the nice arms exports to allow to their lowest level in ten years that's according to the pool but does in the us and here in europe the net after my arms exports are increasingly focusing on other parts of the world and in two thousand twelve saudi arabia was its biggest customer level position cos he say that gemini should be providing weapons to countries that had some support human rights record. here is the biggest recipient of german arms shipments. no other country even came close in twenty twelve release exports to the gulf state which regularly shows off its military strength that greats like these are extremely controversial. critics high late saudi arabia's for human rights record and its role in suppressing dissent in the middle east the opposition green party of q's uncle americans government of violating its own ethical standards. new moon is the new and it would help the government has stressed that its ongoing elections and school kind kind that makes you right to decide. if you supply weapons to saudi arabia menu on serious about mankind on a new six feet in height and weight. the new government has countered that it considers a strong saudi arabia an important stabilizing factor in the region. it is on the unagi is saudi arabia is a pond in the fight against international terrorism. it's bound to hit some are in the g twenty one semi surreal this without even looking the fact that when it comes to human rights. barry white differences of opinion between saudi arabia and the german government. we reckon that the voice our opinions in his office to move into the game is in the open. germany's weapons exports may be an issue at home. but its arms remain in command abroad. income from military exports dropped by a quarter from twenty eleven to germany still sold nearly a billion euros worth of weaponry abroad the caretaker government in berlin has approved the twenty twelve report on weapons exports. but as coalition talks to form a new governing continue the social democrats have promised better communication regarding what the sales they see lawmakers and will be home more quickly. not only signed. let's talk about this in greater detail now we're joined by its legal correspondent peter craven to do that. the theory of germany's had very strict guidelines in place since the nineteen fifties. why is it shipping large quantities of arms to countries like saudi arabia. well the front of the mysteries of the most it did the guidelines stated that the accounts of the moment came into force in the year two thousand and one may stipulate east germany is only in principle at least allowed to export weapons to the eu and to its tomato comments. the woodland from this latest report is the gemini is in fact as sending fifty nine percent of its comes to a countries like saudi arabia to test if the policy countries that that is all a note according to the guidelines which again stipulate that jimmy connors expo to step up two nations is its own vital difference in security interests on a plane that's what the government argues that the country like saudi arabia's we see the government says it's a state of security and stability in the troubled region. not everybody agrees of course was told that the critic is one opposition force or another opposition voice saying she kind of magical time including behaves as if that has never been a matter of spring. she is becoming the arab despots favorite gill friends a very diverse opinions on a strong sentiment that peter briefly because you know if and when we see a new government to the sea change in the balls the promising more scrutiny the proof will be in the pudding brian and peter craven has ever peter thanks so very much one moment a look at how brazil hopes that affirmative action well and the nation's legacy of races the school is committed to some other news from a rental the un security council has condensed tuesday's suicide bombings in the lebanese capital beirut. more than twenty people killed when two attackers themselves up near the iranian embassy the lebanese based group with links to al qaeda has claimed responsibility the south african paralympic champion cost of the story this is on trial for the murder of the scope and has been formally charged with two additional gun related offences. the story is weak and blade runner after its fiberglass faces allegations of illegally discharging firearms on two separate occasions prior to kill. i headed to a us study says that children these days come from sponsors the parent or a boutique and his children apparently needed ninety seconds longer to run one point six km then that is thirty years ago the american house association compared data from millions of children around the well is playing for leeds fitness levels on a lack of activity the next two years. brazil is set to rise to the world's most prestigious fourteen cents to close the world cup in the lead paint. it's something to show the wealth of its entire lesson the diversity is writ large in brazil with a population made up of indigenous peoples of both african asian and european immigrants. but black brazilians are still under represented in the professions and among the financial elite. welcome to the change that affirmative action programs are being expanded. this black awareness day in brazil activists calling for more speed up in that box has this report. the role that de silva says brazil's tolerant multicultural society isn't it. for about ten minutes without parents in the north of rio de janeiro and says she was teased as a child in africa. nowadays she's more likely to encounter disapproving blonde says to beat in the way from my clubs these things. constantine your appearance or college the history confirmed he is buying a kit that moment i fell asleep. a lack of it all comes under attack. if only you. the prussian the baptist parents agreed that the eighteen races and is ready and brazil. but beneath the surface but deep cracks in brazilian society. on the average mom likes to ninety three fifths of what whites. they'll all say more likely to be its roots and die in the fridge is six years younger. watson has to be needed something to society cannot racism and the sale. almost everyone easel and it exists as an entity would admit to being racist and style. rabat to go to college mates puppy thanks to an official puts it the people of african or indigenous descent the government aims to increase the numbers and lights and let income students to fifty percent of the prestigious federal unit this tease like twenty sixteen. since moving to the re seasoning skin colors everywhere now. local news paper editorials and chat shows on radio and tv to take a bus somewhere you people talking about it with google to follow but it's become a serious issue for brazilian society that wants to be my mom. the principal effect these quarters of that principle has become far too much of it. will that sits in the final year of studies that one of the bastille faculties in the country. she wants to help change the society she lives in a dozen of them is realizing that we still have the same age as my experience with the new cathedral the important position. we can go in the genus the scenes diplomacy or does he have to stay to be treated by. i don't stay in hospital at a tennis court to me and i totally an intimate of contents or dad who was said biscuit or an email to boot well that's a mix that makes this will help break the glass ceiling in brazilian society for the good of a town's future generations. the upcoming world cup in brazil now in last four european teams have booked their tickets to see all of a playoff between portugal and sweden was billed as a class of two locals biggest personalities cristiano ronaldo. and last in for him the trees down and going out to me. i need to include the dates. there was no hiding for two dollars and forty and off the amazing comeback. it smacks of me standing just alcohol time when christiane and then down to cope with the swedish defence could go to kuching the he thinks he made it seeks to attain to. on a doctorate in something freaky for me santa to make it to one system the ingredients seem to be the scandinavians weeks. but the stamina of the ideas and scored twenty of meaning. in the night in the seventy seventh minute before grounding to keep it to seal it eighteenth and you could be taken too busy the portugal to as cleaning to do. the act was committed and the results of tuesday's playoffs. well we have that portugal was all topped off data from societies that critiques to progress thanks to the nelson piquet ukraine preparation crossed the atlantic hopes to book a place with a two nil victory good news for greece to use one or two and estimated completed before two aggregate win and three other nations to afford to brazil after winning their playoff gonna losing too long to egypt but when the seven three on aggregate. algeria progressing at the expense of the camp also. and mexico knocking out new zealand in their inter continental playoff team now reached fifteen of the twenty world cups. well funny for something truly love is at hand the colon in the final attack is underway in general for the next five days a wide range of art on display including being taken the big attraction at this year's canadian fine arts is to can say is the painter the nineteen sixty three painting is amazed by the political will to. but he did some eight point five million euros. recent years has seen a surge in playa contrast to the fact. you realize this as people that seem not to say that in times of financial crisis the police can that get the mom gets to the atlantic it's been growing strongly and consistently eighty s he's also a great way of discovering the edges of the content of time on the war but i can hang onto it and still have this type of investment. the novelty of the twenty fifth seems that it's a special exhibition style icons to get this highlights of oldsmobile design fashion and other objects from the nineteen twenties to the nineteen sixties. make sure lonely as his time on the agenda thanks much for joining us by the air. focus documentary series from which it though captivating documentary said reports covers business and finance alternative teaching historical and present day events as well as sports and leisure. in focus saturdays and sundays at four thirty pm the veto. so riveting that separates us with a camisole top model. he soon will miss out. isn't that a digicam with habitat for an encore to report that he was the detainees the beach asked. she's going to hit you on the up to the ddt activity. all you need intestines and one heck of a boss. maybe that'll be it a fantasy. the kids were misled over so my mom agrees she still says it over with all but one balls as of end of this lovable. due to it. when the robot. he isl it isix
46th president. days before an election. any magnitude. and get on with the people's this final full week of the and heaven forbid if something and every resource in the entire wednesday, where he really you put 15,000 national guard, business. situation. and we need to have a disaster trump administration begins happened to a justice tonight, pandistrict. they'll bring in federal law the criminal actions stop on the with, let's call it what it is. anywhere convenience. mind set. mitch mcconnell would be calling attacks his vice president everyday security. enforcement, there will be 20th at 12:01. what does that mean? the nation facing an active and the senate back into action against a crowd that he has that means we need to scale up the bad guys may see that and revved up and urged to fight. bankers here to help. intentionive air defense we have to get mr. biden and faster than donald trump can for wherever you want to go. coverage. utter a lie. move to the softer targets. he tells them to particular down chase. so 1,000 militia members armed vaccination, i'll get to what i dangerous domestic terror make more of what's yours. vice president-elect harris threat, bracing perhaps for even so trump might be like the hence you see the fbi bulletin to the capitol. he says i'm going to walking mean by that, and we need to with semi-automatic weapons through that eye of the needle. more violence. anti-george washington but mitch warning every state capitol and down pennsylvania avenue with align public policy with reality while the white house this week mcconnell will look like hussein you. could be dealt with. as it exists today. state house to prepare for he doesn't. he goes back to the white house. >> we hope our members of the goes about -- while the house violence. the first thing he does back at biden's life lnl be placed in this week goes about impeaching bolt in a second if something they've got intelligence audience listen to these two so on vaccination, how do we indicating plans. they'll harden the target in the white house is send out a gentlemen and otherwise, welcome donald trump for the second like that happened. danger. what i'm concerned with, we just time, the looting of our u.s. so there is a lot of delay going d.c. so good news, bad ugly tweet about how mike pence is watched this massive failure of to 2021. this is the america we're living scale it up? in. he needs to put us on a war capitol building as many have on on the republican side but i basically a coward and not doing intelligence in law enforcement general barry mccaffrey, michael think it is headed in the right something which we all know mike pointed out, is that rare event where the capitol, we narrowly beschloss, our thanks for footing. that means mobilizing all four direction and the vote. pence doesn't have the power to joining us and laying it out for that has grown in importance in do. to overturn the results of the we made usaa insurance for veterans like martin. avoided having vice president us. branches of the arm mobilize th coming up, how easy is it to the days since it happened. >> a terrific point about the election. mike pence or the speaker of the so as soon as, and the crowd, as house harmed, if not murdered, a become radicalized? when a hailstorm hit, well, a "new york times" new pictures and video only make supreme court. now to you, and your beloved we you said, they are channelling reporter is here to tell us national guard for covid he needed his insurance to get it done right, right away. few days ago. response. the event more depressing, hang mike pence. so what i'm concerned about, it about his former colleague who i say this as someone who has they are furious with him. darker, scarier, than it seemed so mike pence as soon as that usaa. what you're made of, we're made for. seemed to me if the inauguration was spotted storming the capitol last week. been deployed in that situation. to be even in the moment. first breach occurs, he is usaa is outside, we end up with the st week.e commission fees and account minimums. i have skin in the game here. and a warning for those of you whisked away to a secure we need that. post 9/11. joining us on the west coast location. while he is there, he is the one likelihood of a provocation of the military can stand up where little ones may still be i've heard it said this will be reaching out to military leaders so, you can start investing today, wherever you are - hospital facilities where they awake. this video is disturbing. and congressional leaders, an embarrassment, of a don't exist. even on the bus. the most powerful new imagery trying to mobilize the national triage, ye it. guard, trying to get demonstration, lasers, drones, we need that here right now. the most tense time since 9/11 download now and get your first stock on us. shows members of the mob quite but here's what they can't do information, trying to reassure war footing. should be able to be at an firecrackers, snipers on the literally under the badger of and correct me if i'm wrong. people. in short trying to do the job robinhood. the president should be doing. distant edge of the crowd, that if we have threats against 50 donald trump, beating police state houses from augusta maine, and the president knowing all of will be humiliating and officers on the steps of the this does not once call mike to tallahassee, to trenton, new embarrassing globally. screened in for training to give u.s. capitol. pence to check in on him or his so i think we ought to go with a week and a half to go jersey, to sacramento, that will shots under the supervision of t family. at one point mark pence' chief until the inauguration officials end up on police officers, inside. are trying to harden washington, put him in the capitol dome of staff calls the white house sheriff's deputies, perhaps after there's been no outreach where we can conduct a dignified d.c. the district of columbia is the state level to track and under a state of emergency as national guard, times 50. to offer up, don't worry, guys, the 15,000 agents of the fbi it you haven't asked but everyone ceremony with 30 tv cameras many as 15,000 national guard provide appointments for people seems to me cannot be used to is safe. the relationship is not good. then on policy really quickly could be on hand by january there. without which, mark me down as i'll say, brian, we need 20th. fortify state capitols. people were predicting as early concerned that what will happen. none of us will be surprised if as this morning before we knew the number grows higher than but talk about this unique set very small armst capable desperately to answer, to ask that. the fbi is warning law they had spoken, close allies of of committing murder but they the question. up of what is truly domestic both men. with this strain now enforcement agencies across the they might never speak again. are out there. and now they're going to be in circulating, we have to assume country about possible armed we now know they have spoken but it's here. 50 state capitols also, where and we know this strain easily protests at all 50 state it is basically four years, terrorism. the state and local >> not only is it truly domestic totally undermined by mike transmits amongst the younger capitols across our country, terrorism but we still don't generation. by the way, schools are starting saturday. have a law in the united states pence's adherence to the the bulletin also warns an armed reopening across the country for against domestic terrorism that law enforcement also are in-person instruction. will give the fbi and the prepared to deal with any level we have to get real about why group has threatened to travel to washington the same day to constitution. are we reopening schools right remainder of law enforcement the >> neal katyal, the d.c. of threat. now with 4,000 people dying a stage an uprising if congress investigative tools in the tool if they get the political kit that they need to counter attorney general is talking about a possible incitement direction to do so. day, and teachers not getting removes donald trump. this threat. in the middle of all of this, what they're telling me now, charge against the president of vaccinated even though they're the acting homeland security vulnerable. brian, is this threat is out in the united states. >> it's chilling to hear that so really being clear on what district of columbia as a we're doing with in-person secretary today abruptly front of them. nonstate in our union, as you from a man who has shed blood on announced his resignation. they are not out in front of instruction right now. this threat. know, has a kind of byzantine foreign battlefields for this chad wolf leaving with nine days and it is all hands on deck in while teachers are still waiting country, talk about the that vaccination. left on the job, happens to be way of charging and trying potential for combat in that's number one. every one of the 56 field and then number two, again, this the third cabinet member to step offices in the fbi. crimes with the feds involved washington, d.c. down since the riot. imagine the triage challenge of and i always discuss history has come to the point here of though his resignation letter there. with an historian cautiously. i'm not a lawyer or for that how do we make thei'll say this. made no mention of the siege at prioritizing which matter, a college graduate. but i've been thinking about the capitol. social media is aspirational, tell me how a local incitement earlier today, joe biden was which is the guy on the couch asked whether he is worried charge will leave a mark on 1945. the inauguration and it was a few colleagues of mine tried about his inauguration. with a bag of potato chips and to get licensed to help out in a whichh a collective hardly his first, of fdr, that donald trump. time, to in southern california. >> i'm not afraid. >> yes. there is a local incitement he chose to have at the white charge under the d.c. code for inciting violence. that's true in many, many states >> as federal officials track house. consolidate that to less than a and local jurisdictions. and ask your doctor about biktarvy. week so we can be where the that's the area what is later there is also federal counter became known as the troop an biktarvy is a complete, one-pill, crisis is. down more of the part statutes about incitement not inix weeks but now. once-a-day treatment used for h-i-v in certain adults. insurrectionists, there's word that at least two capitol hill such as conspiracy, encouraging balcony. it was war time. >> i'm glad you mentioned your and something else we did not know, he was dying. it's not a cure, but with one small pill, experience. police officers have been people to go and travel across he had just weeks to live after i'll going to do it anyway. state lines to commit a riot. biktarvy fights h-i-v the lift capacity of just your suspended. ten others under investigation. tim ryan of ohio who was a guest all of these are different. his, what turned out to be his to help you get to and stay undetectable. of ours last week told both federal and d.c. crimes. final inaugural. that's when the amount of virus is so low branch of the service, the is there a parallel here, united states air force. reporters, one of the suspended it cannot be measured by a lab test. you haven't lived until you've comes is the officer seen taking michael? research shows people who take h-i-v treatment every day seen a c-17 on a short takeoff, a selfie with the rioters. for d.c., what they're doing is >> i think there is. and i think i would go further the other was seen wearing a opening an investigation. than barry. fully loaded. and you know, this is something and get to and stay undetectable it is a thing of beauty. i think there is some risk even can no longer transmit h-i-v through sex. maga hat directing people inside that donald trump might be able doing it inside the capitol and but he can use the power of the building. to try to pardon himself for. meanwhile house democrats are serious side effects can occur, office, you're saying, he can ramping up their effort to hold 1945 shows that. including kidney problems and kidney failure. put 100 million shots in arms in there is an argument that that next week we'll be in a rare, life-threatening side effects 100 days. trump accountable. include a buildup of lactic acid and liver problems. all they need to do is work it. tomorrow the house is expected is an offense against the united potential war zone given the to vote on mike pence invoking states, which is something that threats in this country. is pardonable because d.c. is do not take biktarvy 1945, we were in world war ii. if you take dofetilide or rifampin. >> we have to think big, brian. part of the federal government. the 25th amendment on trump. tell your doctor about all the medicines and supplements you take, this is not the time to think and fdr's protectors felt that small here. we can't say, well, you have to if that doesn't happen, and it's they have to clean up and if you are pregnant or breastfeeding, not likely, look for an article even if he tries it, there is a investigate the mess that has it was too much to take the risk have some sort of health care or if you have kidney or liver problems, including hepatitis. training to be an immunizer. big debate. occurred around this tragedy of impeachment charging articles most people think you can't last wednesday and to have his car go up if you have hepatitis b, those days are done. pardon yourself if you're the do not stop taking biktarvy president and the justice pennsylvania avenue to the we need to think outside the box of incitement on wednesday. department already has an for another mobilization going capitol. without talking to your doctor. here. more immunizers. opinion on that. certainly to have him give a common side effects were diarrhea, nausea, and headache. one of three democrats who even if he could get away with in against the inauguration and you don't need health care drafted the article of it and try to pardon himself, speech on the front steps of the training. you need to be trained. we have 50 states now that all if you're living with hiv, keep loving who you are. you need to be under the all that would do is put capitol outdoors. impeachment. the whole thing was done at the supervision of someone else. >> donald trump called his may have different variants of white house. it was sworn. and ask your doctor if biktarvy is right for you. and let's use our military supporters to show up on january pressure on the georgia he gave a speech on the south investigation, the new york this on inauguration day. assets to help us here at home. 6th because that's where and they're waiting to happen by portico. i think that's an exact parallel we readily use military assets congress will formalize his loss investigation, into multiple and joe biden's win. parts, criminal parts of trump's here. the other thing, and i never one group or another. if you're living with hiv, keep loving who you are. - ( phone ringing )es offers - big button,lized phones... and volume-enhanced phones.nes. he then gave a speech telling wrongdoing. so it is probably the most thought i would be talking this get details on this state program. for the ebola response. them that the election was so you know, don't worry, donald let's use them here at home. stressful time for the fbi visit right now stolen. he told them to stop the steal, trump. you'll still have your day in since 9/11. way. the fbi, intelligence agencies, that's really key here. court. or call let's get vaccinations into the it is just more likely to happen >> clint watts. march down pennsylvania avenue, another veteran of the fbi. department of homeland security, arms of teachers before we before a new york or georgia there is evidence all over the department of justice, during business hours. go to the capitol, and to fight department of defense tonight, expect them to go for in-person like hell, and they listened. internet that far right those are still all in the instruction. criminal jury than in front of extremist groups have started to i've heard from teachers unions and the person responsible for control of donald trump. your supreme court justices.p r, and they will be until noon on across the country. inciting this insurrection is focus on inauguration day you need to see in the dark. it is outrageous that they're donald trump. the 20th of january, assuming expected to go into the that's why we need to remove him itself. our next guest, general barre to have the wisdom classroom without perfect ppe from office as soon as possible. that he stays in office. to understand multiple cyber threats. we're relying on that guy to and teach in a place where they >> "new york times" reports that could get the virus. mccaffrey wrote this. protect our new president, joe the precision focus to end attacks instantly. democrats as of today are, very dark situation. we need to protect all front >> three really important guests given the security threat to the biden, after the performance quote, confident they had the as we start this new week.way. inauguration, the ceremony on computers, mobile devices, servers and the cloud. line workers before we expect should be movedakss. last week? them to go into in-person votes to make mr. trump the i say, let's take a warning from first president to be impeached what we saw. discussion, there instruction. join the world's leading companies let's get real on public policy twice. house republican leader and loyal trump ally kevin mccarthy in our mission to defend. as well. discussions now of >> dr. vin gupta, always, we is now trying to keep that from president-elect biden being cybereason. sworn in outdoors at the thank you for your passion, for end cyber attacks. happening. nbc news reports he has proposed capitol. from endpoints to everywhere. your expertise, and thank you today it was announced by the trump be censured instead. biden inaugural committee that for taking our questions. good luck in your day job these sources say during a conference he and vice president harris will go to arlington national days. call today, mccarthy told his end cyber attacks. and accessoriesphones for your mobile phone. coming up for us, this cemetery to lay a wreath at the republican caucus that trump like this device to increase volume on your cell phone. mutating virus is getting better tomb of the unknown soldier with - ( phone ringing ) - get details on this state program at spreading than we are at bears some responsibility for former presidents. visit right now stopping it. the riot. it is a lovely symbol but our report that might be a one freshman republican house or call member peter meyer of michigan symbols are much too dangerous preview of what we can expect. was just four days sworn in when right now. we've got to keep the new vice during business hours. it comes from overseas. the capitol was attacked. president, the new president, as we'll have it for you after this. we'll have it for you after this i'm susan and i'm 52 he says he hasn't ruled out safe as possible. and i live in san francisco, california. voting for impeachment. if they have to be inaugurated in an underground cavern, that's i have been a sales and sales management professional >> that is something i am my whole career. strongly considering. typical day during a work week is i'm working again, i've had colleagues who fine with me. are objecting and twitter's decision to ban safety first. but first always going for a run or going to the gym. >> general, when you hear that donald trump is ricocheting i love reading. the now former capitol police across the internet. i love cooking healthy. process. parler, that site popular with a raising concerns on the chief was turned down in his it's super important to me. reception. i was noticing that i was just having some memory loss. i have not heard anybody raising lot of right wing extremists is concerns on thedisqualifying request to the pentagon for effectively shut down after it was really bothering me. guard troops because they didn't so i tried prevagen and it started to work for me. amazon kicked it off its servers and leave him unfit for office. like the optics of it, would you and apple kicked it out of the i wish i had taken prevagen five or ten years ago. not have preferred the optics of prevagen. healthier brain. better life. >> some senate republicans are guard troops and circling the app store. a do others have acted the same. said to be urging the house to keep the articles narrowly capitol as opposed to looters focused on trump's incitement of inside the capitol? >> oh no, question. the "wall street journal" the insurrection and leave out i think that statement about the police chief is utter mentions facebook says it is nonessential. swing states to move votes in the national guard are component soldiers. removing all content mentioning you don't whistle them up in 30 stop the steal. the election. today the incoming president was these days, media columnist for preparing for the possibility of a senate impeachment trial the "new york times." during his first few days of the ben, long time reader, first time caller. we're thrilled to have you on new administration. >> the question is whether or the broadcast. not for example, the house moves i want you to tell your story which you talked about in print. you're watching the looting of forward, with the impeachment our u.s. capitol on live tv standing over the senate. along with the rest of us. you notice something. whether or not, as to whether or talk about that and the lesson it taught you. not you can bifurcate this. >> well, i was watching on live can you go half a day dealing with the impeachment and half internet. and specifically on twitter and day getting my people nominated then over on a platform and also by the far right where this guy and confirmed in the senate as well as moving on it. was streaming live as he so that's my hope and occupied jeff merkley's office expectation. >> earlier this evening, trump and messed around with the met with mike pence for the phone, interviewed other feed. first time since the riot when rioters were heard in the capitol saying, hang pence. trump who has been holed up in a social media editor who had the white house for the past kind of come to prominence on several days, scheduled to go to texas tomorrow to view what the old video platform of mine exists of his border wall. he has taken time to give out where he had poured gallons of another medal of freedom of buckets of milk on his head. today he gave the nation's and it was somebody who, and i highest civilian honor to the called some of our old ardent trump defender, jill colleagues. i didn't know him then. jordan. the republican congressman from ohio. to say what was his deal? trump was also planning to hand the impression was that he had one to patriots head coach bill someone who followed the signal belichick. but tonight the nfl coach of the internet wherever it led declined to accept the honor, and he followed it to being an citing the attack on the capitol, he wrote in part this. anti-semite. he followed it and it led will hip here. i am an american citizen with >> what does that tell you? great reverence for our nation's values, freedom and democracy. >> i mean, i'm not sure. one other item that caught our you know, i think that the thing attention during today's push to that kind of, i was thinking get trump to resign. about was the extent to which we a state department website featuring the president's think about a kid in his bedroom biography suddenly changed this afternoon to read simply, donald watching msnbc, watching, you j. trump's term ended january know, videos. 11th, 2021.isuntled getting radicalized. watching youtube videos that push him toward al qaeda or employee at the state department toward the alt right. was and this is a situation. certainly doesn't appear to be this is different. the work of the gruntled. this is someone who got radicalized by performing. on that note, let's bring in our like he had an audience for this three terrific lead-off guests stuff and he was really on this monday night as we start reflecting back to this audience this new week. what he could feel they wanted. ashley parker, reporter for the that's in some ways so "washington post," neil katyal, horrifying. there's this huge audience former acting solicitor general cheering him on in racism and during the obama years. violence. he's argued dozens of cases >> meantime, dorsey and before the u.s. supreme court. and the former fbi assistant director for counter zuckerberg for years have intelligence. insisted, look, we're just small notably he is the author of a new book, the fbi way, inside time publishers here in bedford the bureau's code of excellence. falls. we're not responsible for the stuff we post. suddenly they've both found good evening and welcome to you religion and they have a lot of all. for all the reasons we just ashley, i want to read back to help. what do you make of them turning warned you about, the world you your own work with your off the spigots now and you know health organization is warning colleagues, rucker and dossy in a lot of. these new strains could further business is going to scatter to stress hospitals. now as this new mutation has the post tonight. the president safely ensconced been found in japan, the in the west wing. this was during the riot. >> i'm not sure how many of it consensus seems to be this was too busy watching fiery will scatter. pandemic will get worse before television images of the crisis donald trump sure hasn't scattered. he hasn't found a darker corner. it gets better. unfolding around them to act or these new strains will pose a even bother to hear their cries it is just gone. and it shows the power that huge risk. for help. facebook and twitter have and as we hear in this report from he was busy enjoying the youtube as well to kind of our chief foreign correspondent control his speech. spectacle. trump watched with interest, i mean, so much damage has been richard engel. >> reporter: the u.k. rolled out buoyed to see his supporters done. so much radicalization. there is so much poison in the mass vaccination centers. were fighting so hard on his air. health officials say the next i don't think, you know, they few weeks here will be the worst of the pandemic so far. behalf. has there been an attempt for could have had moderation a new strain up to 70% more his cover story on his role, his policies years ago to keep they behavior and his silence since? contagious has taken over. >> there hasn't. from growing. london's mayor warns 1 in 30 the story we reported in the it is unpredictable. people have a right to have people in the city may now have "washington post" that just the virus. posted this evening was a south african strain just as discomfort with a couple of basically inside those six hours executives making these incredibly important highly transmissible as the u.k. on the attack on the capitol geopolitical decisions, even wednesday from when the capitol unilaterally. variant is now dominant there. was first breached, a little i'm not clear who else there is to make them. a japanese strain was just before 2:00 p.m. until it was finally secured at 8:00 p.m. will they be able to find a confirmed today. and it is sort of a full system of rules or have one >> the virus has become much more efficient in terms of being accounting of what happened, imposed on them. transparent and clear. able to infect people. conflicted by no white house that's the question. >> please promise me you'll come he leads vaccine trials in south messaging or no spin or no back. i want to have a discussion on africa. >> reporter: do you think the attempts at explanation. fox news and news max and oan. in part because the president's south african variant is already in the united states. twitter feed and social media all your areas of study. >> i would be highly surprised presence has been silenced. and we'll shift our focus the because there hasn't been but more importantly, because exported to the united states. there is no explanation. this business, the business of i think it is just a matter of because as we wrote, donald television news and its days if not weeks. intersection of politics. but for now, the audience joins trump sat there, riveted, more >> reporter: south variants are like a viewer than a president genetic mutations of the by what he was witnessing on tv. me in thanking ben smith from original coronavirus. it's mutating more now because in some ways, even appreciating "the new york times." coming up, we turn to the the virus is so widespread. pandemic that continues to evolution sped up by the the fervence they were fighting ravage our country. pandemic. >> the larger issue is we will as joe biden prepares to use the for him and the people around see more and more mutations. power of his new office to him are to a person disgusted. this is just the start. i think the worst might still be does that mean they are vaccinate 100 million of us in ahead of us. resigning? not all of them. the first 100 days. the first 100 days are they speaking out by name? >> reporter: the current vaccines work against the u.k. not all of them. but things are falling away for this president in a way they have not during any other period of his presidency. variant. this virus is now a moving and there is simply no way you can spin that away. target. richard engel, nbc news london. >> neal katyal, of course, after wish we had better news for his role in incitement, the you. coming up, there were more malpractice compounds itself villains than heroes during the looting of our capitol building, knowing that he was one of us but at he's one hero is being watching the looting of the singled out. his story when we come back. st y is waiting to be shared. capitol and chose not to act. i assume you agree the way democrats have gone about this single article of impeachment and i assume all of this detail at ancestry.com that ashley and her colleagues have reported just tonight, in cranky-pated: a bad mood related to a sluggish gut. miralax is different. it works naturally with the water in your body to unblock your gut. free your gut, and your mood will follow. at fisher investments, we do things differently and other money managers don't understand why. because our way works great for us! but not for your clients. that's why we're a fiduciary, obligated to put clients first. so, what do you provide? cookie cutter portfolios? state of the art technology nope. we tailor 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[ engine revs ] a new era has begun so keep pushing forward... make a different future start different at godaddy.com nicoreyou get advice like: smoking is hard. just stop. get a hobby. you should meditate. eat crunchy foods. go for a run go for 10 runs! the vaccine into people's arms run a marathon. like we just did today. are you kidding me?! asidly as we can. instead, start small. we're working on that program with nicorette. which can lead to something big. now. 3,000 to 4,000 people a day start stopping with nicorette dyin new coronavirus last thing before we go tonight, the search for something, anything, someone to celebrate and hold up as an example after one of the worst and darkest days in our modern history, when our capitol, our capitol building was ransacked and looted by rioters, insurrectionis insurrectionists, military veterans, would be military members, confederates, antisemimites and other people who have been lied to about the election being stolen. two capitol police officers are dead. two suspended. one officer is being praised for heroic actions under threat to his life. he has now asked, if you can believe it, for the safety and that of his family that we no longer use his name. but here is what he did. he had been separated from his baton, which he bent over to pick up and while radioing his movements in real-time he determined the mob wasn't stopping and he realized in the moment his choice was move back or get beaten like his fellow officers were getting beaten. but this officer's key move came at the top of the stairs. he knew and luckily the rapidly approaching yahoos did not that the senate chamber was to the left. he saw no one standing post and, so, he led them the other way. the senate was in session. so we are lucky that officer worked that shift on that side of the capitol that day. just as we are lucky the trump inspired mob didn't bring long guns but even without them, the mob having erected a noose on the capitol grounds, our capitol grounds still found a way to beat police officers with an american flag, with crutches, baseball bats and a hockey stick. among the senators who were protected by that officer in that brave moment, those who returned to the chamber after the looting was over and still voted to overturn the results of our election. that is our broadcast for this monday night. as we start this new week, it comes with our thanks of spending your time with us. on behalf of all my colleges at nbc news, good night. c news, got a lot to get to tonight. we're going to speak live tonight with one of the members of congress who authored the new article of impeachment against president trump. we're expecting members of congress to be in washington tomorrow and tomorrow night. for them to start taking votes on this multi-pronged process of trying to remove president trump from office. in response to last week's attack on the capitol.
to the broadcast. dangerous domestic terror he is the former editor in chief for buzzfeed news. threat, bracing perhaps for even these days, media columnist for more violence. while the white house this week the "new york times." goes about -- while the house this week goes about impeaching donald trump for the second ben, long-time reader, first-time caller. we're thrilled to have you on time, the looting of our u.s. the broadcast. i want you to tell your story which you talked about in print. capitol building, as many have and that is you're watching the looting of our u.s. capitol on pointed out, is that rare event live tv along with the rest of that has grown in importance in us. you notice something. the days since it happened. new pictures and video only make talk about that and the lesson it taught you. the event more depressing, darker, scarier than it seemed >> well, i was watching on live internet. to be even in the moment. and specifically on twitter and and a warning, especially for those of you joining us on the then over on a platform favored west coast where little ones may also by the far right called still be awake. this video is disturbing. dlive. where this guy was streaming the most powerful new imagery live as he occupied jeff shows members of the mob quite merkley's office and sort of messed around with the phone, literally under the banner of donald trump, beating police interviewed other rioters. officers on the steps of the and it was in fact a guy i used u.s. capitol. to work with at buzzfeed who was with a week and a half to go a social media editor basically, until the inauguration, officials are trying to harden a guy who had kind of come to washington, d.c. prominence on the district of columbia is the old video platform of mine where he had poured gallons of buckets of milk on his head. under a state of emergency as many as 15,000 national guard could be on hand by january 20th. and it was somebody who, and i none of us will be surprised if called some of our old colleagues. the number grows higher than i didn't know him well then. that. to say what was his deal? and really their impression was the fbi is warning law he was somebody who had just enforcement agencies across the country about possible armed kind of followed the signal of the internet wherever it led and protests at all 50 state capitols across our country, found himself getting engagement starting saturday. by being an anti-semite. the bulletin also warns an armed he followed that and it led him here. group has threatened to travel to washington the same day to >> and what does that tell you? stage an uprising if congress removes donald trump. in the middle of all of this, the acting homeland security bedroom watching msnbc -- secretary today abruptly watching, you know, videos and announced his resignation. getting radicalized. watching youtube videos that chad wolf, leaving with nine push him toward al qaeda or toward the alt right. days left on the job, happens to be the third cabinet member to and this is a situation. this is different. e the ot, this is someone who got radicalized by performing. though his resignation letter made no mention of the siege at the capitol. earlier today, joe biden was like he was -- he had an audience for this stuff and he was really reflecting back to this audience what he could feel asked whether he's worried about that they wanted. his inauguration. and that's in some ways what's so horrifying. >> i'm not afraid of taking the is there was this huge audience out there kind of cheering him oath outside. on in racism and violence. >> as federal officials track down more of the >> meantime, messrs. dorsey and insurrectionists, there's word that at least two capitol hill police officers have been suspended. zuckerberg for years have insisted, look, we're just small ten others under investigation. time publishers here in bedford falls. we're not responsible for the congressman tim ryan of ohio, who was a guest of ours here stuff we post. last week, told reporters one of suddenly they've both found religion and they have a lot of the suspended cops is the help. officer seen taking a selfie with the rioters. what do you make of them turning off the spigots now and you know the other was seen wearing a maga hat directing people inside to scatter to even darker the building. corners. meanwhile house democrats are ramping up their effort to hold trump accountable. >> you know, i'm not sure how tomorrow the house is expected much of it will scatter. donald trump sure hasn't scattered. he hasn't found a darker corner. to vote on a measure that calls on mike pence to invoke the 25th amendment against trump. he's just kind of gone. it's wild. if that doesn't happen, and it's i think it shows the power that facebook and twitter have. and youtube as well. to really kind of control his not likely, look for a vote on speech. i mean, so much damage has been the article of impeachment done. so much radicalization. there is so much poison in the charging trump with incitement air. of insurrection on wednesday. congressman ted lieu, one of three democrats who drafted the article of impeachment. >> donald trump called his i don't think -- you know, they supporters to show up on january could have instituted a set of moderation policies years ago that prevented some of this 6th because that's when congress stuff for growing. was going to formalize his loss it's too late for that now. and joe biden's win. and i think it's unpredictable he then gave a speech telling what the consequences of it are. them that the election was stolen. people have a right to have discomfort with a couple of he told them to stop the steal, executives making these march down pennsylvania avenue, incredibly important go to the capitol, and to fight like hell, and they listened. geopolitical decisions and the person responsible for unilaterally. inciting this insurrection is not clear who else there is to make them. donald trump. that's why we need to remove him but i think -- will they be able from office as soon as possible. to find some kind of system of >> "new york times" reports that rules or have one imposed on them that's transparent and fair democrats as of today are, and clear? that's the question. >> please promise me you'll come quote, confident they had the back. votes to make mr. trump the i want to have a discussion on first president ever to be impeached twice. house republican leader and loyal trump ally kevin mccarthy all your areas of study. is now trying to keep that from happening. nbc news reports he has proposed trump be censured instead. and we'll shift our focus to this business, the business of television news and its intersection of politics. sources say during a conference but for now, the audience joins call late today mccarthy also me in thanking ben smith of "the told his republican causha new york times." for joining us tonight. coming up, we turn to the pandemic that continues to ravage our country. member, peter meyer of michigan, was just four days sworn in when the capitol was attacked.he has as joe biden prepares to use the power of his new office to voting for impeachment. vaccinate 100 million of us in the first 100 days. it's time for the lowest prices of the season on >> that is something i am again, i've had colleagues who are objecting and raising concerns on the timing. raising concerns on the process. raising concerns on the reception. i have not heard anybody raising concerns on the merits and i believe the president's actions last wednesday are disqualifying and leave him unfit for office. >> some senate republicans are said to be urging the house to keep the articles narrowly focused on trump's incitement of the insurrection and leave out trump's efforts to strongarm swing states to move votes in his direction and reverse the election result. today the incoming president was preparing for the possibility of a senate impeachment trial during his first few days of the new administration. the new sleep number 360 smart bed. >> the question is whether or what if i sleep hot? or cold? no problem, with temperature balancing you can sleep better together. not, for example, if the house don't miss our weekend special. moves forward, which they save up to $1000 on new sleep number 360 smart beds. obviously are, with the impeachment and send it over to plus 0% interest for 48 months. ends monday. vaccine into the senate -- as to whether or not you can bifurcate this. can you go half a day dealing with the impeachment and half day getting my people nominated and confirmed in the senate as well as moving on the -- so that's my hope and expectation. >> earlier this evening, trump met with mike pence for the first time since the riot, when rioters were heard in the capitol saying "hang pence." trump who has been holed up for several days, scheduled to go to texas tomorrow to view what exists of his border wall. he has taken time to give out today he gave the nation's highest civilian honor to the ardent trump defender, jim jordan. the republican congressman from ohio. trump was also planning to hand one to patriots head coach bill belichick. but tonight the nfl coach declined to accept the honor, citing the attack on the capitol, he wrote in part this. "i am an american citizen with great reverence for our nation's values, freedom and democracy." one other item that caught our attention during today's push to get trump to resign. a state department website featuring the president's biography suddenly changed this afternoon to read simply, donald j. trump's term ended on january 11th, 2021. there are reports a disgruntled employee at the state department was responsible. certainly doesn't appear to be the work of the gruntled. on that note, let's bring in our three terrific lead-off guests on this monday night as we start this new week. ashley parker, pulitzer prize-winning white house reporter for the "washington post." neal katyal, former acting solicitor general during the obama years. he's argued dozens of cases before the u.s. supreme court. and frank figliuzzi, former fbi assistant director for counterintelligence. notably he is the author of a new book, "the fbi way: inside the bureau's code of excellence." good evening and welcome to you all. ashley, i want to read back to you your own work with your colleagues rucker and dawsey in people's arms, like we just did the "washington post" tonight. today, as rapidly as we can. the president safely ensconced and we're working on that in the west wing. this was during the riot. program now. was too busy watching fiery television images of the crisis 3,000 to 4,000 people a day dying is just beyond the pale. >> joe biden says he will roll unfolding around them to act or out his new coronavirus even bother to hear their cries for help. he was busy enjoying the vaccination plan on thursday. spectacle. trump watched with interest, politico is reporting there's rising tension between biden and buoyed to see that his his own covid team over whether supporters were fighting so hard on his behalf. he can keep his promise and it is a lofty one. ashley, has there been an attempt at a trump cover story to use the power of his new for his role, his behavior, and his silence since? office to vaccinate 100 million >> there hasn't. of us in the first 100 days. the story we reported in the "washington post" that just that's why we thought of one of posted this evening was our favorite guests, dr. vin basically inside those six hours gupta, critical care doctor on the attack on the capitol specializing in these kinds of wednesday from when the capitol illnesses and an affiliate professor at the washington was first breached, a little institute for health metrics and evaluation. a young man educated at princeton, harvard, columbia med school, who also happens to before 2:00 p.m. until when it was finally secured at 8:00 p.m. serve in the u.s. air force reserve. and it is sort of a full accounting of what happened, doc, i saw a graphic tweeted conflicted by no white house tonight by dr. tom frieden, the messaging or no spin or no attempts at explanation. former cdc director, and it's breathtaking. in part because the president's this is the graphic of new cases per million people in the uk and twitter feed and social media presence has been silenced. ireland. but more importantly, because and it is straight up. there is no explanation. this is the new strains, i'm assuming. because as we wrote, donald how scared should we all be by trump sat there, riveted, more like a viewer than a president this? >> good evening, brian. it's an extremely urgent situation. and we need to have a disaster the fervence with which his mindset. supporters were fighting for what does that mean? him. and the people around him are to that means we need to scale up a person disgusted. now, does that mean they are vaccination, i'll get to what i resigning? not all of them. are they speaking out by name? not all of them. mean by that, and we need to align public policy with reality but things are falling away for as it exists today. this president in a way they have not during any other period so on vaccination, how do we of his presidency. scale it up? and there is simply no way you once president-elect biden takes can spin that away. office. he needs to put us on a war footing. that means mobilizing all four >> neal katyal, of course, after branches of the armed forces in his role in incitement, the addition to encouraging state governors to mobilize their malpractice compounds itself national guard. only seven national guards have knowing that he was one of us been mobilized for covid response as we speak. watching the looting of the i say this as someone who would capitol and chose not to act. get deployed in that situation. so i have skin in the game here. but we need that. the military can stand up i assume you agree with the way hospital facilities where they don't exist. triage, side effects from house democrats have gone about vaccination reactions, you name it. this single we need that here right now. war footing. we need to also redefine what an immunizer is, brian. have reported just tonight in a if you're watching this right way, literally and figuratively, goes into the record. now, you should be able to be screened in for training to give against him. >> yeah. shots under the supervision of someone who can respond to an emergency. so congress is basically like we also need standardized software at the state level to make sure we can track and we don't see from him. provide appointments for people he's doing nothing. but congress is moving really s for that first dose and that second dose. that's key. and then on policy really quickly i'll say, a the questi, focusing on inciting the riots. even liz cheney right now is signing on with other with this strain now circulating we have to assume it's here. republicans. so trump for once has managed to and we know this strain easily transmits amongst the younger unite democrats and republicans generation. alike on this. the question is whether or not and by the way, today schools to add more than that, to deal are reopening across the country with the georgia secretary of for in-person instruction. state and the abuses there or we have to get real about why are we reopening schools right elsewhere. now with 4,000 people dying a day, and teachers not getting i suspect that they'll probably vaccinated even though they're vulnerable. coalesce around this single article because it does, it's something that more people can so really being clear-eyed on agree on. what we're doing with in-person having said that, the senate is instruction right now while still -- you know, mitch mcconnell has said, well, i teachers are still waiting that can't start a trial till january vaccination. that's number one. 19th because the senate's in recess. and then number two, again, this has come to the point here of this is same guy who rammed the how do we make the movement of health care personnel easy. supreme court nomination through eight days before an election. brian, i'll say this real quick. a few colleagues of mine tried and we know heaven forbid if to actually get licensed to help something happened to a justice out in a hospital in southern on the supreme court tonight mitch mcconnell would be calling the senate back into action california. 's goi to take six weeks for us to do that. faster donald trump can utter a we need to make that time, to lie. so trump might be like the anti-george washington but mitcg consolidate that time to less than a week so we can be where the crisis is. not in six weeks, now. >> i'm glad you mentioned your experience. because i'm going to do it anyway. on on the senate republican side but i think this thing is headed in the right direction and the the lift capacity of just your branch of the service, the united states air force. >> a terrific point about the supreme court. you haven't lived until you've seen a c-17 on a short takeoff, fully loaded. now frank figliuzzi, to you and it's a thing of beauty. your beloved fbi. i know in your book you talk about the changes the fbi went but he can use the power of office, you're saying, he can through post-9/11. put 100 million shots in arms in 100 days. i've heard it said just tonight all they need to do is work at it. this will be the most tense time >> we have to think big, brian. for the fbi since 9/11. this is not the time to think but here's what they can't do small here. we can't say, well, you have to and correct me if i'm wrong. have some sort of health care training to be an immunizer. if we've got threats against 50 those days are done. we need to think outside the box state houses from augusta, maine here. more immunizers. to tallahassee, florida, from trenton, new jersey to you don't necessarily need health care training. sacramento, that's going to end you need to be trained. up on police officers, sheriff's you need to be under the supervision of someone else. number one. deputies, perhaps national guard and let's finally use our military assets to help us here times 50. at home. we readily use military assets the 15,000 agents of the fbi it for the ebola response. seems to me cannot be used to let's use them here at home. fortify state capitols. that's really key here. but frank, talk about this but then let's get vaccinations unique setup of what is truly into the arms of teachers before we expect them to go for in-person instruction. domestic terrorism. i've heard from teachers unions across the country. it's outrageous that they're >> not only is it truly domestic being expected to go into the terrorism but we still don't classroom without still not have a law in the united states perfect ppe and yet teach in a against domestic terrorism that place where they could get the virus. will give the fbi and the we need to protect all front line workers before we expect them to go into in-person instruction. remainder of law enforcement the investigative tools in the tool they could still do a virtual kit that they need to counter this threat. learning environment while they're awaiting that vaccine. what they're telling me now, so let's get real on public policy as well. brian, is this threat is out in front of them. they are not out in front of >> dr. vin gupta, as always, we this threat. thank you for your passion, for your expertise, and thank you and it is all hands on deck in for taking our questions. everybody single one of the 56 good luck in your day job these field offices in the fbi. days. coming up for us, this imagine the triage challenge of mutating virus is getting better prioritizing which threat on at spreading than we are at stopping it. our report that might be a social media is aspirational, i preview of what we can expect. it comes from overseas. we'll have it for you after this. actually travel and execute a these folks, they don't have time to go to the post office plan. this is a monumental task and it requires everybody to move in one direction with a collective they have businesses to grow customers to care for code of core values, just like lives to get home to they use stamps.com this country needs right now, print discounted postage for any letter and sadly, we're getting reports from numerous police departments across the country that they any package any time have opened investigations on right from your computer all the services of the post office their own officers to determine r d in get our special tv offer this insurrection in d.c. we understand that as many as 15 a 4-week trial plus postage and a digital scale capitol police officers have go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again. been either suspended or are under investigation and this is the threat facing us. it is an insider threat. and the perilous time over the next couple of weeks in this country cannot be overemphasized. >> frank, as your friend and someone who has known you a long time, the urgency in your voice is worrisome. a 4-week trial pwithout the commission fees so ayou can start investing today, what is your personal level of worry for this inauguration? for your country right about now. wherever you are - even hanging with your dog. so, what are you waiting for? >> here's the thing. when you harden the target, download now and get your first stock on us. robinhood. and we're going to harden the district of columbia, and it is do you have a life insurance going to have an almost policy you no longer need? now impenetrable perimeter, and you can sell your policy, even a every resource in the entire term policy, for an immediate panoply of government agencies is going to be deployed to the cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our district. the problem with that is the bad guys may see that and move to retirement. but we quickly the softer targets. realized that we needed a way to hence you see the fbi bulletin supplement our income. our warning every state capitol and state house to prepare for friends sold their policy to help pay for their medical bills violence. and that got me thinking. maybe they've got intelligence indicating plans. selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm they're going to harden the target in d.c. skeptical, so i did some so good news, bad news. research and called coventry i'm confident about a secure district of columbia for the inauguration. direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset not to say there won't be ugly that can be sold. we learned that we can sell all of our policy or keep part of it with attempts at the perimeter but no future payments, who knew? we sold our policy. now we can i'm less confident about the ability of state houses in as we had planned. if you have individual states to safeguard their buildings. one hundred thousand dollars or >> ashley, that's saying a lot. more of life insurance you may and over to you on the qualify to sell your policy. intersection of terrorism and don't cancel or let your policy politics. while the rioters were in the lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit capitol, donald trump was attacking his vice president on conventrydirect.com to find out twitter. if you policy qualifies. or call we later learned they were the number on your screen. chanting among other things, coventry direct, redefining insurance. "hang pence." ♪ ♪ oh, this is how it starts what reporting can you add tonight to what is left of the relationship between donald ♪ lightning strikes the heart ♪ the day has just begun trump and his loyal, to put it ♪ brighter than the sun lightly, vice president mike ♪ oh, we could be the stars pence? >> so the two men did finally ♪ falling from the sky speak this morning for the first time in the oval office. ♪ shining how we want it was described as a good ♪ brighter than the sun conversation. oroweat bread. gathering, baking and delivering but mike pence is really the the goodness of nature... ultimate cautionary tale. from one generation to the next and from seed to slice. you have to remember that the way all of this violence gets started is donald trump addresses the crowd on the mall wednesday, where he really attacks his vice president against a crowd that he has revved up and urged to fight. he tells them to march down to the capitol. he says i'm going to walking down pennsylvania avenue with you. he doesn't. he goes back to the white house. and the first thing he does when he's back at the white house is send out a tweet about how mike pence is basically a coward and not doing something which we all know mike pence doesn't have the power to do, which is to overturn the results of the election. so as soon as, and the crowd, as you said, they are chanting for all the reasons we just "hang mike pence." they are furious with him. warned you about, the world so mike pence as soon as that health organization is warning first breach occurs, he is whisked away to a secure these new strains could further location. stress hospitals. but while he is there, he is th now as this new mutation has been found in japan, the mobilize the national guard, trying to get information, consensus seems to be this trying to reassure people, in short trying to do the job that pandemic will get worse before it gets better. these new strains will pose a the president should be doing. huge risk. and the president, knowing all as we hear in this report from of this, does be once call mike pence to check in on him or his our chief foreign correspondent family. at one point mike pence's chief richard engel. of staff marc short calls the white house after there's been >> reporter: the u.k. today rolled out mass vaccination centers. no outreach to sort of offer up in racetracks and convention halls. don't worry, guys, you haven't asked but everyone is safe. a new strain up to 70% more so the relationship is not good. people were predicting as early as this morning before we knew contagious has taken over. they had spoken, close allies of both men, that this might be london's mayor warns 1 in 30 irrevocable, they might never people in the city may now have the virus. speak again. we now know they have spoken but it is basically four years a south african strain just as totally undermined by mike highly transmissible as the u.k. pence's adherence frankly to the constitution. variant is now dominant there. >> neal katyal, the d.c. and already jumped to nearly a attorney general is talking dozen countries. a japanese strain was just confirmed today. about a possible incitement >> the virus has become much charge against the president of more efficient in terms of being able to infect people. district of columbia as a >> reporter: shabir mahdi leads nonstate in our union, as you vaccine trials in south africa. know, has a kind of byzantine do you think the south african variant is already in the united way of charging and trying crimes with the feds involved states? there. >> i would be highly surprised i'm not a lawyer or for that if the variant hasn't been matter, a college graduate. exported to the united states. and i think it's just a matter tell me how a local incitement of days if not weeks. charge will leave a mark on >> reporter: both the south donald trump. african and uk variants are genetic mutations of the original coronavirus. >> yes. there is a local incitement it's mutating more now because charge under the d.c. code for the virus is so widespread. inciting violence. evolution sped up by the that's true in many, many states pandemic. and local jurisdictions. >> the larger issue is we will see more and more mutations. this is just the start. there is also federal counterpart statutes about unfortunately, i think the worst might still be ahead of us. incitement such as conspiracy, encouraging people to go and >> reporter: british officials believe the current vaccines travel across state lines to work against the uk variant. commit a riot. a pfizer study showed its all of these are different. vaccine appears to be effective both federal and d.c. crimes. against the south african strain. but this virus is now a moving target. for d.c. what the attorney general karl racine is doing is richard engel, nbc news london. wish we had better news for you. coming up, there were more opening an investigation. and you know, this is something that donald trump might be able villains than heroes during the to try to pardon himself for. looting of our capitol building, there is an argument that that is an offense against the united but at least one hero is being singled out. states, which is something that his story when we come back. a migraine hope from aimovig. is pardonable because d.c. is part of the federal government. even if he tries that, however, there's a big debate and most people think you can't pardon yourself if you're the president, and the justice department already has an opinion on that. and even if he could get away with it and try to pardon himself for d.c., all that would do is put pressure i think on the georgia investigation, the new york investigations into multiple parts, criminal parts of trump's wrongdoing. so you know, don't worry, donald trump. you'll still have your day in court. it's just more likely to happen before a new york or georgia criminal jury than in front of your supreme court justices. but either way, if you're donald trump right now, this is a very, >> three really important guests as we start this new week. ashley parker, neal katyal, frank figliuzzi. again, frank's new book is called "the fbi way: inside the bureau's code of excellence." and it arrives just about a time we could use a little bit more of the fbi way around here. thank you all. coming up, what the newly declared state of emergency means for the biden inauguration that we'll all be watching live four star general who warns us, it may not nearly be enough and later, imagine you're watching live tv coverage when you spot a former co-worker in the rampaging crowd at the capitol. we'll talk to someone who did and find out what drives a person to attack the heart of american democracy. all of it as "the 11th hour" is just getting under way on this monday night. just getting under way on this monday night i feel like we're forgetting something. to show up... ...for the sweet. the hectic. the tender. the tense. and the fiery. but for many, migraine keeps them... ...from saying... ..."i am here." we aim to change that... ...with... ...aimovig, a preventive treatment... ... for migraine in adults. one dose... ...once a month... ...is proven to reduce monthly migraine days. for some, by half or more. don't take aimovig if you're allergic to it. allergic reactions like rash or swelling can happen hours to days after use. severe constipation can happen. sometimes with serious complications. high blood pressure can happen or worsen with aimovig. common side effects include injection site reactions and constipation. it doesn't matter what each day brings. so long as you can say... ... i am here. aim... ...to be there more. talk to your doctor about aimovig. last thing before we go tonight, the search for something, anything, someone to celebrate and hold up as an example after one of the worst and darkest days in our modern history, when our capitol, our and looted by rioters, insurrectionists, qanon trumpers, militia members, would be military members, confederates, anti-semites and other people who have been lied to about the election being stolen. two capitol police officers are dead. two suspended. let me check. one officer, though, is being xfinity home gives you peace of mind from anywhere praised for heroic actions under threat to his life. with professionally monitored home security he has now asked, if you can built around you. believe it, for the safety and no, i think we're good. good. that of his family that we no longer use his name. so when you're away, you don't have to worry. but here is what he did. the tent. we forgot... the tent. he had been separated from his baton, which he bent over to except about that. xfinity home. simple. easy. awesome. pick up, and while radioing his movements in real-time he hey look, i found the tent! get xfinity home with no determined the mob wasn't term contract required. click or call today. stopping and he realized in the moment his choice was move back or get beaten like his fellow officers were getting beaten. but this officer's key move came at the top of the stairs. he knew and luckily the rapidly approaching yahoos did not that the senate chamber was to the left. he saw no one standing post and so, he led them the other way. the senate was in session. so we are lucky that officer worked that shift on that side of the capitol that day. just as we are lucky the trump inspired mob didn't bring long guns but even without them, the mob having erected a noose on the capitol grounds, our capitol they have to clean up and investigate the mess that has occurred around this tragedy grounds still found a way to beat police officers with an american flag, with crutches, last wednesday and they have to prepare for another mobilization baseball bats and a hockey stick. potentially going in against the inauguration, and we have 50 among the senators who were states now that all may have protected by that officer in different variants of this on inauguration day. that brave moment, those who returned to the chamber after and they're just waiting to get the looting was over and still voted to overturn the results of our election. so it is probably the most stressful time for the fbi that is our broadcast for this since 9/11. monday night. >> clint watts. as we start this new week, it comes with our thanks of colle another veteran of the fbi. there is evidence all over the internet that far right extremist groups have started to focus on inauguration day itself. at the networks of nbc news, good night. our next guest, general barry mccaffrey wrote this. and it caught our eye. tonight an "all in" -- to "given the security threat to the inauguration, the ceremony should be moved to a more protected location like the capitol dome. the capitol. not a signal of weakness. >> the second impeachment of i've seen a lot of combat. donald j. trump. this time for incitement of insurrection. i'm still alive because i react immediately to signs of danger." back with us again tonight, two tonight the desperate push to of our very, very best. secure the country as the fbi the aforementioned general barry mccaffrey, decorated combat veteran of vietnam. former battlefield commander in the persian gulf. former cabinet member. and our military analyst for good reason. also with us, the celebrated author, nbc news presidential historian michael beschloss, whose latest work is "presidents of war." gentlemen, welcome and good evening. general, i would like to begin with you. so we saw the yahoos make it with ease inside the wire. yes, some of them had horns, but others had zip tie handcuffs. given that, what are your concerns about security for inauguration day? and talk more about what you're suggesting. >> well, look, i think frank figliuzzi made the point that we're capable of securing the inauguration from any threat of any magnitude. guard, they'll bring in federal law enforcement. there will be intensive air defense members armed with semi-automatic weapons could be dealt with. biden's life will not be placed in danger. what i'm concerned about is we just watched this massive failure of intelligence in law enforcement where the capitol, we narrowly avoided having vice president mike pence or the speaker of the house harmed, if not murdered, a few days ago. so what i'm concerned about, it seemed to me if the inauguration is outside, we end up with the likelihood of a provocation, of an embarrassment, of a demonstration, lasers, drones, firecrackers, snipers on the embarrassing globally. so i think we ought to go inside. put him in the capitol dome where we can conduct a dignified ceremony with 30 tv cameras there. and key members of the government. without which, mark me down as concerned about what's going to happen. very small armed threat capable of committing murder. but they are out there. and now they're going to be in 50 state capitols also, where the state police and state investigative bodies and local law enforcement also are prepared to deal with any level of threat. if they get the political direction to do so. >> michael, it's chilling to hear that from a man who has shed blood on foreign battlefields for this country, talk about the potential for combat in washington, d.c. and i always discuss history with a historian cautiously. but i've been thinking about 1945. the inauguration, and it was hardly his first, of fdr, that he chose to have at the white house. that is the area just below what later became known as the truman balcony. it was war time. and something else we did not know, he was dying. he had just weeks to live after his, what turned out to be his final inaugural. is there a parallel here, michael? >> i think there is. and i think i would go even further than barry. i think there is some risk even doing it inside the capitol and 1945 shows that. next week we're going to be in a potential war zone given the threats in this country. 1945, we were in world war ii. and fdr's protectors felt that it was too much to take the risk to have his car go up pennsylvania avenue to the capitol. certainly to have him give a speech on the front steps of the cawhite house. he was sworn. he gave a speech on the south portico. i think that's an exact parallel here. the other thing, brian, and i never thought i'd be talking this way. you know, the fbi, intelligence agencies, department of homeland security, department of justice, department of defense tonight, those are still all in the control of donald trump. and they will be until noon on the 20th of january, assuming that he stays in office. we're relying on that guy to protect our new president, joe biden, after the performance last week? i say, let's take a warning from what we saw. there are discussions now of president-elect biden being sworn in outdoors at the capitol. today it was announced by the biden inaugural committee that he and vice president harris will go to arlington cemetery to lay a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier with former presidents. it's a lovely symbol, but symbols are much too dangerous right now. we've got to keep the new vice president, the new president, as safe as possible. if they have to be inaugurated in an underground cavern, that's fine with me. safety first. >> general, when you hear that the now former capitol police chief was turned down in his request of the pentagon apparently for guard troops because they didn't like the optics of it, would you have not preferred the optics of guard troops encircling the capitol as opposed to looters inside the capitol? >> oh, no question. but look, i think that statement by the police chief was utter nonsense. the national guard are reserve component soldiers. you don't whistle them up in 30 minutes to be over at the capitol. there was a deliberate collective decision to include by the congressional oversight committee that none of them wanted to get involved in lafayette square. and i do think the department of defense didn't want to have a militarized appearance to that weekend built in. we've got four squirrely lads in d.o.d., acting secretary of defense, sort of okay. they didn't want to incur trump's disfavor. so that's what set us up for this terrible failure. but i think to add to michael's point, which i totally support, we don't want an inauguration that looks militarized. we don't want fail phalanxes of bayon bayonet-carrying soldiers. get it inside, get it in a safe place. we can't use the white house because mr. trump, a lawless rogue, is in charge of that building until one minute before the swearing in starts. so we just -- we need to have an abundance of caution, have a dignifiede criminal actions stoe 20th at 12:01. we've just got to get mr. biden and vice president-elect harris through that eye of the needle. >> we hope our members of our audience listen to these two gentlemen and otherwise, welcome to 2021. this is the america we're living in. general barry mccaffrey, michael beschloss, our thanks for joining us and laying it out for us. coming up for us, how easy is it to become radicalized? well, a "new york times" reporter is here to tell us about his former colleague who was spotted storming the capitol last week. these folks don't have time to go to the post office they use stamps.com all the services of the post office only cheaper get a 4-week trial plus postage and a digital scale the hectic. the tender. the tense. and the fiery. but for many, migraine keeps them... ...from saying... ..."i am here." we aim to change that... ...with... ...aimovig, a preventive treatment... ... for migraine in adults. one dose... ...once a month... ...is proven to reduce monthly migraine days. for some, by half or more. don't take aimovig if you're allergic to it. allergic reactions like rash or swelling can happen hours to days after use. severe constipation can happen. sometimes with serious complications. high blood pressure can happen or worsen with aimovig. common side effects include injection site reactions and constipation. it doesn't matter what each day brings. so long as you can say... ... i am here. aim... ...to be there more. talk to your doctor about aimovig.
capitol, which they see as a success. investigators warn that online chatter is, quote, off the charts. the national guard is preparing to find improvised explosive devices like pipe bombs and molotov cocktails ahead of next week's inauguration. a federal law enforcement official tells cnn that the evidence suggests that the siege at the capitol was planned. we have brand-new video this morning that captures even more of how violent this attack was. this was not a protest gone wrong. the fbi says it has received tens of thousands of digital tips, including some that appear to show members of congress with extremists who later showed up at the insurrection. >> joining us now, cnn white house correspondent john harwood and cnn national political reporter, maeve reston. john, my question is, what happens now. what are the open questions you have about the senate trial that we now understand will not begin until joe biden takes office? >> well, the biggest questions, john, are how long the trial lasts and to what extent does it interfere with the open to joe biden's presidency. of course, there's also the question of whether donald trump is going to be the first president ever convicted by the senate. i would say that the chances of that are less than 50/50, but it's not impossible. and the fact that mitch mcconnell has maintained a strategic ambiguity is something that gives us all a question mark over that. my understanding is that senate democrats hope to get this wrapped up by the end of january, so it would only be about ten days if they can do that. ten days into joe biden's term. and obviously, he's going to need to stand up a government as rapidly as he can. and i think that's something that under the circumstances, republicans as well as democrats are going to share the desire to help him stand up, at least the national security elements of that government. >> maeve, here's how president-elect biden is feeling about this and the task ahead. he says, the nation also remains in the grip of a deadly virus and a reeling economy. i hope that the senate leadership will find a way to deal with our constitutional responsibilities on impeachment, while also working on the other urgent business of this nation. that sounds like a tall order. and i mean, this is the last thing that he needed, you know, as john said, in his first ten days or month in office. >> right, alisyn. i mean, as you guys have been talking about this morning, there is so much work to be done in terms of getting the nation up to speed on vaccinations, for example. joe biden wants to put forward another coronavirus relief bill. and has been in talks with lawmakers about that. and in part, the task is so big because president trump is not doing much work at all on those issues right now. and so this really complicates what joe biden had opened to do in his first hundred days, in part because impeachment is such a weighty matter that historically, the senate has been asked to really set aside other business and so, while a trial goes on, and so clearly, he is trying to get mitch mcconnell and then also the incoming leadership of the democrats to figure out a away o get his cabinet nominees confirmed, to get moving on his agenda while this is going on. and we know from the last impeachment that it eats up all of the attention in the either, and it will be very difficult for him to get americans focused on his agenda. so it's really a double-edged sword for democrats, who want to hold the president accountable, but have all of these other things on their plate, alisyn. >> john, what do you think donald trump's defense will be? donald trump, "the new york times" reports, is going around even this week telling people, i won, i won the election. we're reporting he doesn't want to pay rudy giuliani for being the lawyer who got him impeached twice. so i don't know if giuliani will stand up for him. we have some reporting that john eastman, who's the guy who questioned whether kamala harris could be vice president and the same guy, i think, he spoke at the rally on january 6th, and he continues to say that the people who invaded the capitol were leftist, he may represent the president. but what on earth are you looking for? what do you expect to see here? >> well, first of all, what you described with president trump is a reflection of how psychologically disfigured he is. he cannot accept responsibility for anything. and, you know, donald trump's -- the nature of donald trump is such that he is such a bad actor, that at some point, everyone around him is going to be asked to do something that they simply cannot do. so rudy giuliani cannot press forward successfully on this preposterous legal argument about trump winning the election, which he did not. so trump says, i'm not going to pay his bills. kevin mccarthy sticks with him on the idea that there's electoral fraud for weeks and weeks and weeks and finally facing the flight of corporate donations from his party, he stands up in the well, opposes impeachment, but says donald trump bears responsibility. now trump's turning on him. he turned on his own vice president, mike pence, who ate garbage from the president for four years and set a mob, excoriated him, blamed him for weakness. this is the nature of who donald trump is, so he's going to stew. but you have to think that one of the positive things is that he's lost the ability to communicate rapidly and inspire further acts of violence or at least, he's deterred from doing that. and the fact that he put out that statement last night, saying that he disavowed violence, is a reflection of the fact that he does respond to pressure. he is under intense pressure right now. >> yeah, i mean, but to be clear, our reporting -- sorry, it might have been "the new york times" reporting, was that it was basically an intervention. he had to put out that statement. he didn't want to, with you know, a week after -- >> oh, alisyn, donald trump will never do the right thing for the right reasons. he will do it if he feels forced to. donald trump is now staring down the barrel of legal problems when he leaves, even if he tries to pardon himself and even if he can make that stick, he's got state-level in new york city and new york state, state-level legal problems that are beyond the reach of a presidential pardon. he's going to come out of the white house owing hundreds of millions of dollars, and he's watching his bankers flee him. his brand is in tatters. he's got big, big problems going forward and it is the specter of those problems that finally gets people to be able to convince him to do something different. he may not mean it. in fact, he almost certainly does not mean it. but the fact that he did it is better than had he not done it. >> oh, for sure. but maeve, i mean, i think that -- i think that people who count donald trump out do so a little prematurely. because he still has all of these networks. yesterday, his preferred networks were not in special coverage about the impeachment. they dipped in and dipped out and maybe they showed it, maybe they didn't. i mean, there were times that oam was not even reporting on it. and so, it doesn't seem like the base that he has worked up to a lather, that are willing to go risk their lives for him and fight at the u.s. capitol, it doesn't seem like that's been diffused yet. and we just had this specialist that listens to extremists on, they were parsing everything he said in his statement last night for any clues about what he wants them to do next. >> right. i mean, the psychology of those people, i think it's -- you know, at this point, it may be absolutely impossible to change. but to your point, i mean, that sort of strikes at the heart of what democrats are trying to figure out, as they go forward with the impeachment trial is how many minds can they change at this point. donald trump's approval ratings are now in the mid- to high-30s. certainly more republicans have abandoned him. clear majorities say that he is responsible for the violence that happened at the capitol. but as much as mitch mcconnell would like to purge the republican party of donald trump, i mean, that's clearly not going to happen anytime soon, because the mechanisms are not there yet. certainly, we are seeing this huge corporate pressure campaign, people like kevin mccarthy, seeing the prospect of his, you know, his ability to raise money and corporate donations drawing up. and that is what's driving the behavior of some republicans now who have been openly questioning trump's actions. but until the primary system changes, where you don't have sort of the craziest extremists being the core of people that show up in primary contests, trump may be able to punish republicans for a long time to come. and his hold on the party will continue for a long time to come, unless we continue to see sort of an avalanche of pressure on the money side. and donors i've talked to this week have been talking about that. how to go forward, how to get the republican party to a better place. to keep more stable people in office. and i think that's a conversation we don't know the end to yet and we'll have to see how that unfolds. >> donald trump 2021 is a political loser. he lost a presidential election at the end of 2020. he lost every avenue of challenging that into 2021. he blew the georgia senate races. republican donors are fleeing. he lost ten house members. so why the other 197? what do they see as a reason for sticking with him? >> well, as maeve indicated, so long as 70% of republicans, which we see in polling this week, remain strongly behind donald trump, even after what's happened over the past week, what that means is all of those republican members who represent strongly republican districts are looking at a primary landscape that is tilted way in favor of people sympathetic with donald trump. it is remarkable that you got ten republicans. that's just 7% of the house republicans. nevertheless, that's more than you've had for bipartisan impeachment votes in the past in american history. you had them stepping up. you had liz cheney, an influential figure in the party stepping up. you have mitch mcconnell maintaining his silence about what he's going to do in a senate conviction. and i have to say that the fact that we were talking about the state president trump put out last night, that statement vindicated the decision by pelosi to impeach, by mcconnell to say, i'm not sure how i'm going to vote on conviction. by pence, even, to hold out the possibility for several days of the 25th amendment. all of that weighed on the president. that pressure weighed on the president and produced what he said on that video last night. >> john harwood, maeve reston, thank you both very much for being with us this morning. washington, d.c., it looks like the green zone in baghdad. this is what the green zone in baghdad used to look like when i was there in iraq after the invasion. security is increasing ahead of joe biden's inauguration. some 20,000 national guard troops are expected in the capitol for the swearing in next week. cnn's pete muntean live on the streets with what things look like this morning. pete? >> john, you mentioned the 20,000 members of the national guard, descending on washington right now, but along with it, this massive fence around the capitol. we are blocks away from the center of the capitol complex. and this is very big. i'm 6 feet tall. this is 8 feet tall. but if you have any questions about the threat here, it is very real, according to the latest intelligence. the secret service says it's monitoring online threats of possible armed protests here again. the pentagon says it's worried about improvised explosive devices, like we saw outside the rnc and the dnc. and the head of the metropolitan washington police department says he is concerned that things here could get very ugly. here's what he said. >> as the mayor has encouraged residents, as she has encouraged visitors from around the country, you know, we're not asking people to come to d.c. for this. this is a major security threat and we are working to mitigate those threats. so, again, we are just very intently focused on the job that's at hand. >> obviously, you're new as acting chief, but not new as mpd. have you ever seen this much help coming in for a large event? >> not at this level, no. >> reporter: downtown d.c. being cleared out right now. the members of the guard now, many times larger than are deployments of the military overseas. this is going to be an inauguration like no other. john? >> all right. pete muntean in d.c., please stay safe, pete. so did the insurrectionists have help from the inside? i mean, way inside. members of congress or their staff? well, now other members of congress are demanding an investigation, that's next. want to brain better? unlike ordinary memory supplements— neuriva 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received tours from some members of congress the day before the attack. one house democrat calls it a reconnaissance mission. joining us now is democratic congresswoman abigail spanberger, she's a former cia officer and one of the 232 lawmakers who voted to impeach the president. good morning, congresswoman. >> good morning, alisyn. thank you for having me. >> i'm sorry, i'm not really able to hear you. let me try to work on that. maybe you could just turn on the speakers overhead, bruce. i'm going to press on and hope they're going to turn the speakers on for me. let's start with what we need to expect over the next week. i know that you received a briefing from secret service. can you give us just a sense of what they're preparing for and what we all, as the public need to expect over the next seven days? >> so i think we'll expect to see it look very, very different over the next couple of days, from prior inaugurations. we've spoken with, and we've had briefings with secret service, fbi, and other law enforcement entities that are involved with preparing for the inauguration. they went through kind of the prioritization of what has been different -- since january 6th, some of the additional changes that they've made to their plans towards the inauguration. and you know, at this point, i would also like to just take a moment to thank all the national guard members who have come to washington earlier than normally would be the case with an inauguration, including so many guard members from the commonwealth of virginia. they are, i believe as you previewed in some of the photographs, working to make sure that space is safe. >> john was just saying that it looks like the green zone in baghdad right now. that's the show of force. but i mean, scale of one to ten, because you have experienced in your cia background, how concerned are you that we'll see some form of repeat, maybe not the level of what happened on the 6th, but something dangerous or destructive. and not just in the capitol, but in the 50 u.s. capitols that have now been warned to expect something. >> i think the large concern that i have is not about a particular date. it's not just about january 20th, it's not just about this upcoming weekend, where it's expected that there's going to be events, be they violent altercations or anything else at capitols across the country. the real issue that i think we need to focus on as an american people is that there is a violent and extreme ideology that has taken hold, that has been given safe harbor, if you will, in the political space. and we saw the results of what happens when that is able to ferris fester and come to the forefront. we saw those results on january 6th. we're certainly preparing for those potential results over the weekend at the inauguration. i'm a former cia case officer. my background is a focus on terrorism. and the domestic violent extremist who is took siege and executed an insurgent attack on the united states capitol, an insurrectionist attack are not just going away. so that's something that we need to contend with. we're going to need accountability. we're going to need leadership. because, really, that's the long-term challenge that extends, frankly, far beyond the 20th of january. >> absolutely. they killed a police officer. i mean, if that's not radicalized, i don't know what is. and i think you're right, in order to diffuse it, there's going to have to be a deprogramming. but i don't see that happening yet. do you have any thoughts on how that can happen? >> you know, i'll take you back to november. november, the election happened. took a little bit, but the election results were called by the media. the election results were called because there was no path for donald trump to win. and then we moved forward and in state after state began certifying their election. and in advance of, i believe, it was december the 8th, which was the safe harbor date for all states to declare their winners, i had many colleagues say, well, i'm not going to acknowledge that joe biden won until december 8th, because that's the safe harbor day, just in case there's a change. and people in my district or you know, my base voters, they're just not ready for biden to have won. so i'll wait. and december 8th came, right? and all of the states said, yes, here are the results. we've done recounts, we've certified it. republican legislatures and republican governors and secretaries of state said, yes, we've certified it. and then they said, well, we'll wait. december 14th, that's when the electoral college is meeting and voting. so some of my base voters, they're not happy, we'll wait until december 14th. december 14th came and many people chose still not to acknowledge joe biden as the president-elect. and then it was, well, we'll wait until january 6th. that's when we as members of congress acknowledge it. and every step along the way, when they had the ability to tell the truth to their constituents, when they had the ability to say there was no steal, the elections occurred, as brave people such as the secretary of state in georgia has done, when they had the opportunity, they didn't do it. and then in the lead up to january 6th. well, some people in my district feel that the results weren't fair. they feel that way, so therefore i'm going to contest the results. and so bit by bit, this is the problem, is when we have people in positions of leadership, who do not use their voice, this is what happens. we allow people the space to fester and foster these conspiracy theories that there was some steal that they need to rise up to. and i will harken to jamie herrera butler, a republican who voted for impeachment, the statement she said was, i'm not choosing a side, i'm choosing the truth. it's the only way to defeat fear. and her words, i think, are so truthful and so important, because it is in that truth in saying the truth to our neighbor, to our family members, having heard conversations within our communities, that we will be able to defeat what is an ideology that is based on lies and based on fear. >> congresswoman abigail spanberger, thank you very much for sharing all of your thoughts with us on this important day. >> thank you for having me on. thank you so much. this is the most bipartisan impeachment in u.s. history, even senate majority leader mitch mcconnell has not ruled out convicting president trump. where does the republican party go in a post-trump presidency? that's next. if these beautiful idaho potato recipes are just side dishes, then i'm not a real idaho potato farmer. genuine idaho potatoes not just a side dish anymore. always look for the grown in idaho seal. when you're through with powering through, it's time for theraflu hot liquid medicine. powerful relief so you can restore and recover. theraflu hot beats cold. there is no excuse for president trump's actions. the president took an oath to defend the constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. last week, there was a domestic threat at the door of the capitol and he did nothing to stop it. that is why with a heavy heart and clear resolve, i will vote "yes" on these articles of impeachment. >> that's republican congressman dan newhouse. he was one of ten republicans who voted in favor of impeaching president trump, making it the most bipartisan impeachment vote in u.s. history. never before have so many members of a president's party voted to impeach a president. joining me now is cnn political commentator and former republican congressman, charlie dent. so, charlie, there's two ways to look at this from someone's perspective like you. glass half full. the most bipartisan impeachment if history, ten is more republicans that voted for impeachment last time when it was zero. however, 197 still voted against it. are you glass half full or glass half mempty? >> i'm actually glass half full. i wish more had voted for impeachment. but john, i think it's fair to say that there were many house republicans who supported impeachment than who actually voted for it. so we should be clear about that. that those ten members who voted for it, i think, have a lot more support within the conference than people realize. don newhouse's simple eloquence stated it all, as did jamie herrera butler, who simply talked about truth over fear, and saying that donald trump, his actions were simply inexcusable. that kind of simple truth, i think, goes a long way with a lot of the members, even though others couldn't find it within themselves to support the resolution. >> it got to ten. it goes a long way. it got to ten. i'm not sure how it matter how many of the other 197 in their heart of hearts may have agreed with them if they're not willing to vote. >> like i said, that is disappointing. but, hey, it's a start. i am very pleased that we had these ten stand up, including a freshman, peter meyer. he's in his 11th day in the u.s. how votes for impeachment. i hope that this vote in the house will embolden senators now to convict. so let's see what the senate does. and you also have, i think, a dynamic in the senate where many of those senators seem to be even more angry with the president, because he cost them the senate and of course the events that occurred last week, where the president did nothing. and mcconnell, of course, senator mcconnell is also, you know, sent a signal to his members that it sounds like he could be supporting a removal from office, and i think that's very encouraging. >> on the other hand, there's already a movement in the house of representatives to take liz cheney, congresswoman liz cheney, who is the number three ranking house member, to take her conference chair title away. so again, if there is this movement, and i don't know whether it's going to have majority support or not, why is that a good sign? >> well, i think a few of the more extreme voices within the conference want to take down liz cheney. but i think they're underestimating liz cheney's strength was in the conference. even those who voted against impeachment will not vote to sack liz cheney. i think many will deeply respect her. and there is a fracture within the house republican conference. cheney representing the voice of how many felt, even if they didn't vote that way. and of course, the current leadership were in the other camp. i think cheney's in a stronger position than some folks realize. yes, there's a group, there'll be a few dozen who will want her head on a pike. but a lot of people in that conference who admire and respect her. and she is probably seen as the future leadership of the gop. >> i don't know. i mean, adam kinzing inger agre with you. he voted for impeachment. he put out a statement that he thinks that liz cheney is in a stronger position and kinzinger went on to suggest that he thinks there are many ranking members who actually fomented, perhaps, some of the actions that led to the violence, that they should lose their jobs. i just don't see it. i need you to convince me that there's actually going to be some change. because i saw a whole lot of jim jordan last night. i saw a whole lot of jim jordan controlling the vast majority of republicans in the house of representatives. and i don't see his power waning one little bit. and he's going to be a ranking member on a committee. >> well, look, the battle lines are drawn, john. clearly, the party is fractured. and, look, i'm with kinzinger and cheney on this. i want them to be stronger. i want their numbers to grow. i believe that they will over time. donald trump is still, obviously, a very dominant force within the party. but he is a bit of a diminished figure. and i believe that his power is going to continue to ebb over the coming months and hopefully years. many republican members right now are concerned because a lot of their financial support is being choked off because many business organizations and their pacs have declined -- or are suggesting they're not going to support members who voted to object to the certification. so i think there is a real problem within the gop about how they're going to fund themselves. this is a big problem, because the republicans don't have the same type of fund-raising capacities that the democrats do with their organization that can basically flip a switch and they can get, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of small contributions. the gop doesn't have that luxury. >> well, trump raised a whole lot of money for his whack-a-doodle attacks on the election after november 3rd. so there is a way to raise money in a certain group. axios/ipsos did a poll where they asked people who have been voting for republican whether they're a trump republican or traditional gop. right now, within that group, traditional gop is the majority. and within this group, trump should be removed from office for promoting unrest, 1% among trump supporters. 24% among traditional republicans. do you support trump's contesting of the election results? 91% among trump supporters. traditional gop, of which you consider yourself, charlie, it's 46%, which is still incredibly high. and trump should be the 2024 republican nominee among trump supporters. 92% among traditional gop. 42%, which again seems high. what do you see in these numbers? >> some of those numbers are actually a bit depressing, on the one hand, and others are encouraging. but my advice, again, to republicans is, donald trump lost an election. all of these other republicans down-ballot did very well. not one incumbent house republican lost, and the state legislative candidates did well. they are in a stronger position than they realize. and what is the point of following a man, you know, who has been defeated, who has been impeached twice, who continues down this reckless path, who is based upon all the comments i've heard from people close to him, they all believe the president is unhinged. i can't believe that vice president mike pence is feeling very good about donald trump right now after this mob went down there and was screaming to hang mike pence, i can't imagine any of these folks feel good about where they are. there's a blood letting that's going to occur. the reckoning is at our doorstep. and we'll see how this plays out. i think that the establishment will push back, if you will. bill kristol is out there right now, you know, raising $50 million to defend those republicans who voted to impeach and those who will vote to convict. so there are people pushing back. so now the fight, you know, counterforce is rising. that's a good thing and it will grow in strength, i would hope. >> charlie dent, thanks for being with us. appreciate your time. >> the country on high alert this morning, as federal officials warn of possible new attacks ahead of joe biden's inauguration. so what is being done this morning to prevent this violence? that's next. i feel like we're forgetting something. let me check. xfinity home gives you peace of mind from anywhere with professionally monitored home security built around you. no, i think we're good. good. so when you're away, you don't have to worry. the tent. we forgot... the tent. except about that. xfinity home. simple. easy. awesome. hey look, i found the tent! get xfinity home with no term contract required. click or call today. all right. federal investigators warning this morning that domestic extremists are more likely to carry out attacks. they are emboldened to carry out new attacks, perhaps in advance of the inauguration, this coming after the siege on the u.s. capitol last week. this morning, federal officials have uncovered ed that leads them to believe that that attack was, quote, planned. joining us now, andrew mccabe, the former deputy director of the fbi. the idea that they are saying this was planned, they're looking into that, andy. what should we take away? >> well, i think we should all assume that there was some degree of planning that took place here. i mean, we saw the weaponry, we saw the tactics used on the capitol. nobody came to the trump rally carrying ladders and bats and cudgels. all of those things were carried up to the capitol. so, that equipment had to have been planned for. it had to be stored somewhere, it had to be retrieved before they mounted their assault. so that gives you at least some very -- some very basic in indicators of organization and execution. >> so there was that question of, was it planned, and to your point, it sure looks like it since they brought stuff that you don't normally bring to a peaceful protest. and then there's the question of, was there some kind of inside help? we've heard from some lawmakers who say they have seen evidence of inside help. some of them suggest that some of the members of congress, some of the republicans, trump supporters, gave tours to some of these extremists the day before. and then there was a lot one of the extremists who planned this, said in a videotape that he put online, that he had coordinated with congressman mo brooks, congressman andy biggs, and gosar. so how do you go about proving that? >> well, i think the reports of what people saw the night or two before the attack are certainly suspicious, but there's a lot more we need to know about that. and i'm sure investigators are running in that direction. the comments by the extremists online about having coordinated with three congressmen, i mean, you know, as an investigator, you always, you know, thank the heavens every time one of your suspects does something incredibly stupid. and that's happened a lot here. but i can't jooveremphasize, alisyn, the most important source of information here will be the attackers themselves, as they get their hands on more and more people, many of them are going to talk. many of them are going to explain who they talked to, who they coordinated with, wihere they came from, and lay out all the details in an effort to save themselves some time in jail or reduce the penalties they face. and that's how we'll unwind this potential conspiracy behind the organization of the attack. >> what i'm most concerned about, andy, is what happens next. how safe will things be leading up to and during the inauguration itself. and president trump put out this video, we understand under duress last night, where he called on his supporters to not be violent, but he did not say, i lost the election. he did not say, i am in any way responsible for the violence and the insurrection at the capitol last week. you spent years fighting violence and terrorism all around the world. what do you think potential bad actors heard from that statement last night? >> well, john, president trump is a master at coded language and the use of dog whistles. and there is no question that that statement included some of those same references, simply by leaving out the comments that you've mentioned, he sends a signal to his folks to fight on. he has never come out and formally undercut the central theory of the this domestic terrorist rebellion, which is that the lie that the election was stolen from them. and his failure to do it last night is absolutely unforgivable. i dismiss that statement as a self-serving attempt at damage control. i think you're right to be thinking forward and far beyond d.c. i still think that the biggest danger that we face in the coming weeks is from the independent actions of small domestic terrorist groups, be they racial or alt-right or whichever your flavor of the moment, targeting softer targets in their home areas. those are statehouses, government buildings, things of that nature. d.c. will be a fortress for the inauguration. there will be some attempts to disrupt things, but i don't think they'll be successful here. they have the rest of the country to play with, and that's really concerning. >> before we let you go, we want to get your thoughts on jim comey, the former director of the fbi just gave an interview yesterday to the obambbc and he floated an interesting idea. weapon want to get your take. >> do you think joe biden should pardon trump ford did nixon. >> i don't know. he should consider it. i don't know whether donald trump -- he's not a genius, but he might figure out that if he accepts an pardon, that's an admission of guilt, the united states supreme court has said, so i don't know that he would accept an pardon, but as part of healing the country and getting us to a place where we can focus on things that are going to matter over the next four years, i think joe biden will have to at least think about that. >> what do you think, andy? >> you know, alisyn, i think -- i understand that argument. and i think that before january 6th, it's a pretty close call. i would have completely understood in those days before the tobacco on the capitol that the new president might want to move on from this incredibly challenged period that we've been living, but the attack on the capitol for me changed the calculus measurably. you have a president who provoked and directed and incited an assault on his own government, on the process of democracy itself. i don't think you can look away from that. as much as you might want to move on to political healing, this is an offense against this nation that has to be -- he has to be held accountable for this in some way. so i really believe that, you know, we should continue moving forward in that direction. >> andrew mccabe, thank you very much. we appreciate you being here. >> you guys are wearing the same glasses. just saying. >> yeah. >> the whole segment. >> is that right? mine must be very handsome. >> yeah. a major announcement coming today from president-elect joe biden on the next round of coronavirus relief. so we have the details on what he wants to include, so stick around for that. >> they're fetching. if these beautiful idaho potato recipes are just side 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>> alisyn, getting covid under control is obviously going to be joe biden's biggest challenges for him immediately when he takes office. and we have new reporting this morning from myself, sara murray and kristen holmes about state officials feeling skeptical and concerned about biden's stated goal of getting 100 million vaccine shots administered in his first 100 days in office. remember the biden team has had to lean heavily on individual states to get information about covid in large part because they have not been getting the cooperation that they have needed from the outgoing trump administration. now the repeated concern we've heard from our sources on the state level is simply that they do not have clarity right now on some key information about how these vaccines are going to be administered. so from everything, from these mass vaccination sites, how exactly is that going to work? what about vaccine supplies? this is simply the question of, will there be enough vaccine doses to do the 100 million vaccine shots in the first 100 days. funding is a big problem. a lot of states and local governments right now are extremely strapped for cash and they just don't know, how are we going to have the resources, including people to actually administer these vaccine shots to try to meet this goal. now one consistent thing we've also heard from our sources is generally a sigh of relief. people have described a night and day contrast between deal with the trump administration and the incoming biden administration. they have described generally that they have been willing to listen, that they have been a lot more engaged than the outgoing administration. so that has been a little silver lining that we have heard. i will just quickly note as you know, joe biden is going to be making a big announcement tonight here in wilmington about his covid relief package. what we reported last night is that biden advisers recently told allies on capitol hill that the price tag could be something like $2 trillion but i will emphasize that number could always change. alisyn? >> mj, thank you for all of that information. joining us to talk about it is cnn chief medical correspondent dr. sanjay gupta. sanjay, let's start there. this ambitious goal of joe biden, 100 million vaccinations into arms in his first 100 days. you just heard mj exclaim there, there are complications. so, for instance, not having enough people to administer the vaccine and, of course, thus far, the vaccinations haven't gone as well as projected and so do you think it's still realistic? >> i really still do, alisyn. and i know that there's been a lot of concern about this. i've been talking to people within all these sectors at the federal level, at the state level, but also the private sector level as well. it's going to come with bumps and hiccups and it's going to feel uneven. the way the system was set up was that "operation warp speed" was getting these doses to the states. they were tracking it through the software platform tiberius. after that it was left up to the state to handle it. we've seen what's happened so far. one thing to point out is that the major pharmacy, the major pharmacy organizations have been largely responsible for taking care of long-term care facilities. and they have been doing that and they expect that that should be done by the end of the month. the expectation was these major pharmacy -- these retail pharmacies would not start doing the general public until the spring some time. but that may change. if you look at their capacity and what they're possibly able to do here. there's a lot of ifs, but they could vaccinate up to 100 million people a month. how do you do that? you have to get more doses out there. that's part of what we're hearing. don't hold back the second doses. you have to widen the eligibility, which we're hearing that as well, so people over 65 in most states now can be eligible for the vaccine. and you have to bring these major pharmacies online. the vaccination fairs at dodger stadium, in pennsylvania, there's some skepticism about that because it's not just opening a mass vaccination site. you have to track all those patients. what's the software platform going to be? do you have enough personnel to actually be injecting these shots into people's arms? all of those are big concerns. pharmacies have a lot of that infrastructure already built in. they're going to have to ramp up. don't get me wrong. but this combination of the states and the private sector, i think, are probably going to be the answer. >> you have to get the demand to the supply. you have to get enough people to the vaccines where they are. "the new york times" reporting there's 24-hour vaccinations in parts of new york but overnight in the dead of night, no one is gettin getting vaccinated so you have syringes sitting there waiting to go in people's arms and it's not happening. >> right. that's exactly right. you also deal with these particular vaccines in that you have to use them once you start to thaw them. so you all of a sudden run into situations and i saw this at our hospital where you value of a sudden a bunch of doses at the end of the day and literally calling people and saying, hey come get a dose because we have these extra doses. they're going to go to waste otherwise. but just going back to the pharmacy thing, that is a structure that many americans are sort of used to as well. vaccination fairs, again, i think that may be a critical component, but what are people used to doing? making appointments with their doctor's offices. going to their retail pharmacy. they have relationships with people there. they can be tracked there. their medical information is already in these places. so how do you take what is necessary, this huge demand, and understandably so for these vaccines, and incorporate it into a system that people know and understand. >> sanjay, thank you very much. we'll all be watching what president-elect biden says tonight about all this because, obviously, it will have a big impact on all of our lives starting one week from now. appreciate it. "new day" continues right now. >> this is "new day" with alisyn camerota and john berman. >> good morning, everyone. welcome to our viewers in the united states and all around the world. this is "new day." this morning, congress moves toward the senate trial of donald trump for inciting the deadly insurrection on the capit capitol. but that trial will only begin after donald trump leaves office next week. house managers tell cnn they have not yet decided whether to seek witnesses and subpoena documents. overnight president-elect joe biden urged lawmakers not to let this trial get in the way of fighting the pandemic and resurrecting the economy. ten house republicans voted in favor of trump's impeachment. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says he has not ruled out voting to convict donald trump. as for the president, he has a new fall guy, rudy giuliani. our reporting is that trump does not want to pay his legal bills anymore. and the president is still debating who to dole out more pardons to. >> washington, d.c., looks like the green zone in baghdad. law enforcement troops just everywhere. developing this morning, new intelligence bulletin warns domestic extremists are likely more emboldened now after the insurrection last week. online chatter is, quote, off the charts. a federal law enforcement official tells cnn the evidence uncovered so far suggests the siege on the capitol was, quote, planned. brand-new video of all of this. we'll show you that in a minute. the fbi has received tens of thousands of tips, including some that appear to show members of congress with individuals who later showed up at the insurrection. >> joining us now, cnn white house correspondents john harwood and kaitlan collins. kaitlan, last night the president put out a video condemning the violence. you know, took a week. and he didn't take any responsibility for inciting it. and the reporting is he had to be pressured from inside by jared kushner, among others, that it was an i
again. >> the president of the united states incited this insurrection, he is a clear and present danger to the nation. ♪ welcome to "inside politics," i'm john king in washington. to our viewers in the united states and around the world, thank you for sharing your sunday. it is a very strange sunday here, the anticipation of a presidential inauguration clyding with palpable anxiety. what law enforcement sources tell us are credible threats of violence in and around the nation's capitol. there are 20,000 plus troops deployed here, fences, wire, blocked off areas where we would normally see crowds and celebration this is week. the coronavirus pandemic had already force add scaled-back inauguration. now the threat of domestic terrorism by supporters of president trump add unprecedented stress to what is supposed to be america's defining moment. >> there is a great deal of very concerning chatter and it's what you don't know that we are preparing for. so i don't know if anyone has raised their hand to say we are coming, we will be there, but we are preparing as if they are. >> president trump becomes former president trump in 76 hours. he will not attend the biden inaugural. he will leave office stained. the only president impeached twice, the second time this past wednesday, one week after the insurrection he inspired. a brand-new cnn poll releasing right now, you see it right there, pegs his approval rating at an all time low of 34%. his approval among republicans is also down from 94% to 80%. now, some republicans hope his influence evaporates now that he cannot tweet and because he leaves the white house so diminished. but insurrection, that insurrection of 11 days ago is just one glimpse of his legacy, the trump conspiracies and election lies that inspired that insurrection now have very deep roots in the gop. >> there is great suspect that there was massive voter fraud and other illegal casting of ballots. no one said having a republic was easy and the underpinning of a republic and a honest and accurate elections. we have to fight for it. >> that's a member of the united states congress repeating, repeating, repeating lies. the president-elect, though, voices confidence this moment will pass or at least begin to fade if his team can prove it will improve the economy for everyone and prove it can finally tame the coronavirus by quickly rebooting the sputtering trump vaccine rollout. >> our plan is as clear as it is bold, get more people vaccinated for free, create more places for them to get vaccinated, mobilize more medical teams to get the shots in people's arms, increase supply and get it out the door as soon as possible. >> with us this sunday to share their reporting and their insights, lisa lerer of the "new york times" and cnn's manu raju. lisa, i want to start with the president-elect who will be president in 76 hours. this should be his week because of the security, insurrection, impeachment trial still pending, president trump still dominating a lot of the talk in this town, but joe biden becomes president wednesday at noon. let's listen to a little bit about the tone. this is the tone he wants to set for the country at this delicate moment. >> well, we didn't get into all of this overnight. we won't get out of it overnight. and we can't do it as a separated and divided nation. the only way we can do it is to come together, to come together as fellow americans, as neighbors, as the united states of america. >> that's the tone he wants to set and with the new stimulus plan and amping up the vaccine rollout that's for everybody, but some of these first day actions we're learning about, the team -- the biden team put out yesterday, the list of executive orders he will take in the first several days in office, they include reversing trump's muslim travel ban, rejoining the paris climate accords, requiring masks on federal property, extending restrictions on evictions and foreclosures, extending the pause on student loan payments, there's also some immigration orders in there. much of what he wants to do right out of the box, he wants to show action, turn the page, there is a new president, but much of it also is a poke at the trump base. >> oh, for sure. look, i think joe biden ran on a message of unity and if you talk to people around him they will say that that message is even more needed than ever before, but, man, is that an awfully hard tone to strike given what happened in the past two weeks and also given the optics of this moment. he has essentially taken the oath of office in a capitol that looks awfully like a war zone and i don't think he can have an inaugural address that doesn't mention the capitol and the need for accountability for that siege. so i do think we will have to see a little bit of a bouncing of the tone and you're seeing that as you point out legislatively as well. he really wants to show action to try to move the country forward and he understands that getting through -- things through congress was going to be hard before, it's likely going to be even harder now because the senate is going to also be dealing with this impeachment trial which will not only take up time, but could potentially harden divides and make it harder for him to gain bipartisan support for his proposals. >> and, manu, that reinforces the crisis atmosphere in which joe biden will become president. yes, he would like to quiet the tensions in the country and get those trump supporters -- maybe not the ones prone to violence but other trump supporters to listen and give him a chance. the other agenda items joe biden's team says we have to do what we campaigned on. also complicating things is the looming impeachment trial. we don't know when it will be, we do expect nancy pelosi will send the article of impeachment in this week, the very week we get a new president. the question is the math. here are five republican senators we're watching, you see murkowski, collins, romney, sasse and toomey. all possible, possible votes for impeachment. not certain, but possible votes to convict the president in the senate, but that's five. you need 17 or 18 republicans depending on whether any democrats vote no. so you have this other group, there's 18 senators on your screen right now, the one you watch most obviously the leader, the republican leader mitch mcconnell who has said he's open-minded. right now it looks quite improbable there would be a conviction, is there any evidence the math is shifting? >> not yet because a lot of these senators will tell you that they are going to simply wait. it's easier for them politically not to take a position right now. they do say they want to listen to the arguments on both sides and a lot of it, john, will depend on the politics of the moment. where are we in two to three weeks, how does the country feel, what is the mood, have we learned more about this investigation, have we learned even more about president trump's role or reaction to his incitement of this insurrection? all of that will factor into how senators ultimately vote. now, can there be 17 votes to convict? that is going to be the big question over the next few weeks. the question, too, is exactly what is the case that house democratic impeachment managers bring, of course, a lot of it is public, we know what the president said publicly to incite that insurrection, what he said in the run up alleging fraud without any evidence about the election, trying to pressure georgia election officials, for instance, to overturn joe biden's win, but how do they present that case before the senate? will they bring in witnesses like georgia secretary of state brad raffensperger? those are questions that they have to decide. how do they convince senators who are trying to decide what to do and whether to convict, all big questions, but the political one, too, for mitch mcconnell is if you vote to convict what does that mean for the future of trumpism? does that make him more powerful as a convicted former president? does that push him aside and perhaps marginalize him even further heading into the 2022 midterms. those are key calculations that members will make, even though i'm talking to senators -- senate republican sources, john, virtually all of them believe that he committed impeachable offenses, but getting to the vote of convicting is still an open question. >> right. especially when you think about so many of those -- the seats up in 2022, 20 republican held seats now among the senate seats up in 2022, vote to impeach or vote to convict in the senate is what it is and you probably guarantee yourself a primary inspired by president trump, the question is will they have the courage if they get there. lisa, that is one of the big questions, you wrote about this with your colleague the other day, josh dawsey in the "washington post" quotes chris ruddy a close friend of the president in florida. we don't know what legal issues are going to arise but i think he's going to remain a global force, i think he's going to like being post-president more than president because you have a lot of the perks without as many of the restrictions. i think this is an open question, can the president use the bully pulpit when he loses? he's already lost twitter now he loses the white house. you wrote about this as well. that is the defining question of the republican party, does he fade, is he diminished, or does he find a way to reboot because he still has the loyalty of his supporters? >> look, flthere are a lot of republicans in washington who see an opportunity to move past trumpism and the trump era right now in this moment, whether that looks like impeaching the president in the senate or it just looks like people sort of repudiating him out in the states they are uncertain, but they feel that that opportunity is finally in their grasp. i'm just not sure they're being realistic about what their party actually is at this moment. i spent the past week or so talking to republican state legislators, state chairmen and what you see is that trumpism, the baseless conspiracy theories, is deeply embedded in the firm amount of the republican party at the local level and exorcising that from the party no matter what mim and people in washington may want to do is not going to be easy. so it really is how the republican party moves forward from this point really is extremely uncertain and i don't think anybody really has a clear picture of what that party is going to look like two years from now when we are in those mid-term elections. >> the question is how many republicans plant the flag and say we will not let him have any influence, we will fight any further influence, plant a flag and fight it consistently. the headlines in recent days, he has essentially surrendered his jobs, he's still spreading his lies, but the "wall street journal" trump spends final days focusing on defectors. pence calls vice president-elect kamala harris, the vice president doing what would happen weeks ago. trump explodes at nixon comparisons as he prepares to leave office. the question is what signal do the other republicans take. at the top of the show in the open we had congressman mo brooks who continues to repeat the president's lies that there was widespread election fraud. the conspiracy theories and these lies have deep roots, even as the president prepares to head to florida. >> yeah, no question. and what's remarksable to see is such a split within the congressional republicans. on the house side and the senate side. a majority of the house republican conference even after the riots, even after everything that happened on january 6th, that night into the morning of january 7th a majority of the house republican conference voted to throw out the electoral results from arizona and pennsylvania. on the senate republican side a vast majority voted to push back and respect those accusations of electoral fraud and to affirm joe biden's victory in those two states. and you're seeing that divide play out pretty starkly. no matter what happened on january 6th, there are still that contingent faction, very vocal faction of the house republican conference who will continue to side with the president's conspiracy theories and lies. you mentioned mo brooks. i asked him last week are you concerned at all about your role in the rally, going to the rally, inciting those rioters to come to the capitol when he was saying very provocative things at that rally. he said he was doing his duty. so there is no -- there's hardly any concern voiced by -- regret voiced by any of these members about their role in this. they are siding with the president. you're going to see this clash emerge between them and senate republicans, the question is how many will do it publicly and how many will continue to do it privately, john. >> when you take an oath to the constitution as members of congress do your duty is to respect the will of the people in a democracy, but some republicans don't want to get that message including the soon to be former president. grateful for your reporting and insights as we begin this fascinating week in washington. up next, we continue the conversation, the fortress inaugural. the capitol fenced off now from attack and there are more troops in washington, d.c. than in iraq and afghanistan combined. hi sabrina! >>hi jen! so this aveeno® moisturizer goes beyond just soothing sensitive skin? exactly jen! calm + restore oat gel is formulated with prebiotic oat. and strengthens skin's moisture barrier. uh! i love it! aveeno® healthy. it's our nature.™ aveeno® vicks vapopatch. easy to wear with soothing vicks vapors for her, for you, for the whole family. trusted soothing vapors, from vicks the new myww+ gives you more of what you need to help you lose weight! more simplicity with the what's in your fridge? recipe feature. and more motivation with 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with our partners we evaluate those threats and what kind of resources to deploy against them. right now we're tracking calls for potential armed protests. >> a new security bulletin warns domestic extremists unhappy with the election results are the biggest inaugural threat. president trump stoked that anger with his election lies. d.c. police officer michael fanone saw it up close at the capitol 11 days ago. >> some guy started getting ahold of my gun and they were screaming out, you know, kill him with his own gun. >> with us to share their expertise this sunday julian kayyem and jonathan wackrow former secret service agent who has coordinated security for major events like inaugurals and the u.n. general assembly. jonathan, let me begin with you. if you are watching around the country or living in this city which is a fortress right now you remember what happened just a little more than a week ago at the united states capitol when the dots were not connected, signals were missed, agencies were not listening to what the intelligence told them. are you confident things have been fixed for this inauguration? >> good morning, john. yes, i am confident and here is why. there is a big difference between what we saw in terms of preparation and response on january 6th and what we have right now moving forward into the inauguration. there is a construct called the national special security event as designated by the department of homeland security which is being coordinated by the u.s. secret service. what this means is that there is a comprehensive overarching security coordination that is applied to the inauguration that takes a whole of government approach and it brings together all of the resources of the federal government and local and state partners to put together a very comprehensive security plan that looks at everything from intelligence to operationalizing the security structure to consequence management. there are multiple layers of this security plan. there's redundancy, agility, the ability to quickly shift. and the reason why this nsse structure is so important right now is because what we're seeing. we are seeing a domestic threat coming in from violent extremists like we have never seen before. the reason why law enforcement is mobilizing to the degree that they are is that we know that this threat can manifest itself into violent acts and that's what worries law enforcement the most. >> right. and if you had any doubts of how it can manifest itself we saw it. we saw it and in some ways even though five people are dead and that is a horrific tragedy we're lucky. the vice president, the vice president-elect, speaker of the house, 500 other members of congress in that building at the time, we're lucky things weren't worse. that presents the challenge. this is from the bulletin that police intelligence memo warning, this is from before the capitol insurrection. supporters of the current presidency january 6, 2021 is the last opportunity to overturn the results of the presidential election. unlike previous post-election protests the targets are not necessarily the counterprotesters but rather congress itself is the target on the 6th. so they were warned then and as jonathan says security is different, it's coordinated by the secret service for a big event like this. so you have two challenges, stopping it from happening again now in the days around the inauguration, but then the bigger challenge of what's going on out there and how do you deal with it in the long term. when you hear the fbi director say we're picking up so much chatter, what are you trying to do between now and wednesday and what happens after? >> so now until wednesday we are fully in the tactical phase of the greatest counterterrorism effort since 9/11. we may not be calling it that, but it has a combination of the prosecutions and investigation, the security posture that you're seeing on the mall, but let's also add 50 state capitols, the deployment of the national guard, the private sector doing everything from deplatforming the inciter of all of this, donald trump, to bringing some of these horrible websites down like parler. actions by companies like airbnb which just simply canceled all of its reservations in d.c. and then of course the impeachment which the combination of these political, financial, economic, prosecution, security, all of them focused on not eliminating the risk, but minimizing the risk because of the big lie that donald trump continues to propagate. we can never forget that donald trump has not conceded this election nor has he called president biden. but if you think about terrorism in the future, we will continue to have a threat. this is a greater threat as the fbi acknowledges than international terrorism at this stage, but we have to have some hope about being able to control it. very small element of trump supporters are violent, you prosecute them, but the most important thing is we begin to isolate the president himself. he is the reason why the capitol was the focus according to that intelligence bulletin is because the president told them why. he said congregate on january 6th, fight for your right. he essentially told them that morning go -- you know, go up the hill and do what you need to do. so i think this continuing isolation of donald trump is at least a precondition and i think we will be surprised. i sometimes think the greatest gift that president-elect biden can give us is the gift to look away and i think that that will begin to happen. he will have his policies, they will be hard, we have a pandemic, but most people just want to live their lives and what we're seeing these last three weeks is no way for a great democracy to live. >> no, not at all. and, jonathan, so there's some people just say, well, there was a mob, they went up to capitol hill, then they got angry and had this spontaneous insurrection. no, if you listen to some of the people outside and listen here skom of them went there with a very clear plan. listen. >> i've been in the other room. listen to me. in the other room on the other side of this door. there is a glass that somebody -- and it's broken. you can drop down into a room underneath it. there's also two doors in the other room. one in the rear and one to the right when you go in. so people should probably coordinate together if you're going to take this building. >> that's frightening. that's frightening. that's somebody that has cased the building, somebody who has figured out how to move about to do what you're doing. you heard speaker pelosi this week saying she wants to find out if members of congress were accomplices, aiding and abetting. that is stunning to hear those worts and hear the depth and complexity of that planning. >> john, what happened on january 6 was not a spontaneous event, it was a well-coordinated attack on the u.s. capitol. we have the audio, we have all of the digital exhaust to actually prove it. we know that for weeks people were talking about storming the capitol. you know, what a lot of people are calling this an intelligence failure. actually what it is, it's a failure to act on the intelligence that was available. we're going to relitigate exactly what had happened prior to january 6 to ensure that it doesn't happen again, but right now i think we need to focus on today through the inauguration and bring some reassurance that those failures that we saw early on will not happen again. there are some challenges for law enforcement. i think that, you know, juliet's point was really well taken. we have wild card factors right now such as the encouragement from president trump on these potential violent extremists and really what is the unknown impact that the impeachment will have on mobilizing his base once again. law enforcement has to be keenly aware of those factors, they've put together the right plan right now to ensure that this inauguration is safe and secure. >> and then we will see how we do going forward. you both underscore a big challenge in the days and weeks and months and even years ahead. thank you for your insights as we begin this important week. up next for us, like the white house the senate flips from republican to democratic this week burks it's still hard to get big things done. and the second trump impeachment trial could make it even harder. when they told me my work wasn't essential walls enclosed around me with the words “you can't do this” tattooed to its surface. an unshakable feeling. pressure that swelled beyond my capable strength. how do i break through...alone? i don't... the strength to break through has always been built together. crafted with the people who stand beside us. introducing career services for life. learn more at phoenix.edu the new myww+ gives you more of what you need to help you lose weight! more simplicity with the what's in your fridge? recipe feature. and more motivation with 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he has an open mind, that makes trump allies in the senate furious. >> they will destroy the republican party if leadership is complicit with an impeachment or if leadership votes for an impeachment they would destroy the party. impeachment is purely a partisan thing, it's for these moral i'm so much better than you and you are a bad person because i'm so moral, these are the kind of people that are going to do this. >> impeachment complicates things for the new administration. the president-elect is asking the senate now to split its days, use mornings to confirm his cabinet picks and consider a new coronavirus relief package, have the driel in the afternoon. with us to discuss the challenges ahead senator angus king of maine, an independent who votes with the democrats on organizational issues. i'm grateful for your time this sunday. let's start with your take on the math. you are an independent who votes with the democrats on most issues, i assume you are a yes to convict on impeachment, but is there any way that you think you can get 17 or 18 republican votes, what you would need to convict the president? >> john, in talking to some of thigh republican colleagues i think there are two missing pieces of evidence. of course, a lot of the evidence is out in front of us and we all saw it in realtime, this is probably the first impeachment trial in history where the senate was also witnesses of what went on, but there are two missing pieces that i think could have a dramatic influence. one is what did the president know before he went out that morning to talk to that crowd. in other words, what was the intelligence and did he know that there was a likelihood of violence and a violent siege of the capitol. that's number one. number two, what did the president do that afternoon. and there are reports that he watched tv, the word i heard was he was delighted, and that he resisted any effort to try to ameliorate or mitigate the situation. if those two things are validated and it will take some evidence and then we are back into the situation we were a year ago of, you know, does the president stone wall and there are no witnesses and no documents, but if those two things are validated that he knew that there was a danger of violence and that he willfully and consciously refrained from stopping it, i think that could change some minds and make this a different discussion over the next several weeks. >> we will watch as that goes forward. you are on the intelligence committee so you have access to the classified briefings and even more we get scary information that's made public, you get access to much more of it. this is a freshman house republican peter meyer one of the ten who decided to impeach the president in the house. listen to how he describes his life right now. >> colleagues who have now traveling with armed escorts out of the fear for their safety, many of us are altering our routines, working to get body armor, which is a rei'm bus i recall purchase that we can make. it's sad that we have to get to that point, but, you know, our expectation is that someone may try to kill us. >> our expectation is that someone may try to kill us. that's a new member of the united states congress who took a vote, you can agree or disagree with it, he believes a vote of principle. what are you hearing about the threat against members of congress like yourself and against the capitol building and against the country? >> well, there's no question that there are threats out there. i mean, the blogisphere is full of talk of violent revolution and hanging traitors and those kinds of things. john, what's really awful about this is that this was created by the president of the united states. now, there was always, you know, these militia groups and those kinds of things, but by perpetrating the underlying lie that the election was stolen, that there was fraud and beating it into people's heads for two or three months, it created a situation. he could have ameliorated this, you know, a week or two -- let him sue. let him have his day in court. let him have his recounts, but around the first of december when all that was over, that was the time to graciously concede as virtually every other losing presidential candidate in our history has done and tamp down what's going on instead of trying to inflame it. there he was the morning of january 6th encouraging this crowd to go up to the capitol, his own vice president who has been incredibly loyal was at risk. this is in his control and he's done, you know, practically nothing. he does these pro forma be peaceful statements but there is always a wink and a nod and they're not -- it's not helping. that's what's so really awful about this is that he did this for so long. >> he does that when his lawyers tell him he needs to do it in case he gets sued or prosecuted it's not so much of a direct call. so one of the questions the new president joe biden will face when he takes office next wednesday is what to do about the former president. president trump's former deputy cia director -- dni, i'm sorry, sue gordon said joe biden should essentially cut off his access to any intelligent. trump has business entan entanglements, it's not sure he understands the trade craft of which he has been exposed. the reason and knowledge must be protected from disclosure. tts the president's call whether donald trump gets access to anything in the post-presidency. should joe biden say cut him off, he's dangerous? >> yes. i mean, there's a certain irony here because this is a president who has become somewhat famous for not paying attention to intelligence and not really taking the daily brief that he's supposed to take and not really being very interested, but, yes, there's a grave danger of him inn advertly or willfully revealing classified information that would compromise sources and methods and there is no upside, there is no reason that he needs to have this information, it's a courtesy that's been passed on from president to president, but there is no legal requirement and i think given his past history of being fast and loose with intelligence data, it ought to be -- that ought to be an easy decision for the incoming president. >> what is this moment for joe biden? he says he wants the senate in the morning to do some business, work on his new stimulus plan, confirm his team and cabinet, they released yesterday a memo that he's going to have a lot of executive actions out of the gate. he becomes president in a moment of so many crises. do you see a climate in the united states senate, many people say, you know, trump is going to stoke this, no, others say republicans want to prove washington can do such things. when it comes to new stimulus, biden agenda items, is there a possibility of progress at this moment or are we in our polarized even more so because of the trump effect? >> no, i think that there is an opportunity and i think that the case study was the stimulus package that we passed back in december which was based upon a bipartisan negotiation that took place during the months of november and december. so there's -- i can tell you there is a strong desire on both sides to get things done, so act like senators, do debate bills, to have amendments, to have votes on the floor and i think there's also a widespread realization that we need to do more in the way of stimulus and dealing with the virus. now, when you get to details, how much, how big, what should the stimulus package look like, what are the limitations, all those, there's going to be a lot of negotiation, but i do think there is an opportunity to really move forward and i think a lot is going to depend upon mi mitch mcconnell's attitude. if he takes the attitude which apparently he articulated back when president obama came in, we're going to do everything we can to stop this, to cripple this administration, to make it a one-term presidency then we've got trouble, but i think his caucus is not going to allow him to take that kind of straight up obstructionist position and i think you're going to see that there's going to be some pretty serious bipartisan negotiation. now, i'm an idealist, john, i always try to find the bright side and maybe i'm being too optimistic here, but i can tell you from talking to republicans and democrats there are a lot of people that want to move this country forward. >> we will get to put your optimism to the test in just a matter of days. we will see how it plays out. senator angus king of maine, grateful for your time on this important sunday. up next for us as the senator just noted joe biden takes office in a moment of crisis and history reminds us his inaugural address will help turn the page. >> homes have been lost, jobs shed, businesses shuttered, our health care is too costly, our schools fail too many and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our 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eye institute did 20 years of clinical studies on a formula only found in preservision. if it were my vision, i'd ask my doctor about preservision. it's the most studied eye vitamin brand. if it were my vision, i'd look into preservision. only preservision areds2 contains the exact nutrient formula recommended by the nei to help reduce the risk of moderate to advanced amd progression. i have amd. it is my vision so my plan includes preservision. joe biden will be a crisis president from moment one. a country on edge. a trump impeachment trial looming. a struggling economy and this raging pandemic. if you loo k -- under 130,000 americans hospitalized with covid-19, but, again, the statistics sometimes drop on the weekend. still horrific to be anywhere in the ballpark of 130,000 americans in the hospital, stressing hospitals across the country because of covid-19 just as joe biden prepares to take office and the death numbers are horrific, you see the rise, right? saturday 3,286 of our friends and neighbors, fellow americans, lost their lives to covid-19. 3,286. one giant challenge for the new administration, the trump administration started rolling out the vaccines, things have not gone as well as the trump administration had hoped. you can say that without a doubt. more than 31 million doses distributed nationally, 12.2 million, nearly 12.3 million shots going into arms, they're being distributed but not being administered quickly enough. joe biden says i will fix this but people need to be prepared, things are still bad. >> almost a year later we're still far from back to normal. the honest truth is this, things will get worse before they get better. i told you i will always level with you. you know, and the policy changes that we're going to be making are going to take time to show up in the covid statistics. they're not just statistics, it's people's lives. >> with us this sunday to share their insights the former republican congresswoman mia love of utah and david axelrod. david, i want to start with you as someone who has won presidential campaigns and helped a president prepare for the inaugural address. things are going to get worse before they get better is not the climate you want to be telling the american people to prepare for on day one. >> no, but it's important to set a baseline because things probably will get worse before they get better and i think he wants people to understand this is where we're starting. but, you know, it's interesting, john, four years ago president trump made an inaugural speech that will be remembered forever for its grimness in which he talked about american carnage, even as the country was in pretty good shape and recovering -- you know, having recovered from the recession and so on. now we have a president who is going to take office in crisis and his job is going to be to give people hope, to give people confidence that there is a way forward and that we can get there and we can get there together. the paradox is he's going to be doing it from within a green zone with 20,000 national guards surrounding the capitol. so, you know, i think this is a most unusual speech, but biden is an optimistic person, i expect him to be optimistic, but realistic in his inaugural address. >> one of the things he promises, congresswoman love, is to reach out to republicans and to try. he has a relationship of trust with the senate republican leader mitch mcconnell, they don't agree on much but they trust each other. the question i have is which republican party emerges as preeminent here as most powerful in washington. senator ben sasse of nebraska writing over the weektend, when trump leaves office my party faces a choice. we can dedicate ourselves to key depending the constitution and perpetuating our best american institutions and tradition or we can be a party of conspiracy theories, cable news fantasies and ruin -- and the ruin that comes with them. we can be the party of eisenhower or the party of the conspiracist alex jones. his point is that there are qanon members of the congress now. president trump has assigned him isself with the qanon conspiracy theory. ben sasse says they have to root them out. will they? >> i certainly hope so. the republican party has to root out the conspiracy theorists and get back to the ideals that the republican party platform is based on, a free market, free enterprise, freedom and getting people back to work and dealing with this. now, i understand that the administration has got a -- he is definitely dealing with some issues and is not going to be able to hit the ground running, but i think unity and even bringing in some republicans into the cabinet might be a great way to show that he is pushing all of this nonsense aside, getting rid of the donald trumps of the world and is doing what he can to work with republicans to move a positive agenda forward. >> and what do you do, david, if you are joe biden at this moment? a brand-new poll we released this hour, 99% of democrats believe joe biden legitimately won the election, 66%, two thirds of independence believe that, only 19% of republicans believe that. do you spend time trying to change their minds on the republicans or do you just go about your business and hope if you get a new stimulus plan passed, if you pick up the pace of the vaccinations, that people in america, democrats, republicans, independents actually see things getting better and maybe then some of that fades? >> yeah, john, i think plan b is the only one that you can pursue. you have to go about your business, govern the country. i think that if he is successful in getting this vaccine program on track and we can finally push back on this virus and get the economy moving again, he will have accomplished a lot to win over large segments of the country. not all of the country. 's always going to meet some resistance, but the request he is do republican legislators feel free to work with him and cooperate with him, or do they think that there is a penalty to be paid for doing is. and that's what we need to see. there are some decisions he's going to have to make right away about how to proceed on his relief package here which is twice as large as what the congress was willing to approve just a month ago and does he -- does he try and put together a program that republicans can support because there are elements of this that they were vehemently opposed to, like aid to state and cities and do you do that or do you go the route of reconciliation, budget reconciliation where you only need a majority to move forward, 50 votes, and you can do all democrats but that would send a signal that we are not beyond the kind of separation, the kind of opposition that we've seen in the past. so, you know, we're going to find out very quickly what we can do. he is someone who believes in working across the aisle, he did it all his life, did he it in the obama administration. he was the emissary to mitch mcconnell in the senate. we shall see. >> we shall see. i wish we had more time for the conversation this morning. congresswoman love, david axelrod, grateful for your time. we will continue this important conversation on both sides, how does biden perform and what do the republicans do. a special cnn look on kamala harris and her path to history. facing collagen that's all hype? new olay collagen peptide 24 with derm recommended peptides. hydrates better than the $400 cream. for visibly firmer skin. olay. face anything. the new myww+ is our most holistic weight loss program ever. you can choose any workout you want to fit with your time frame. there are a ton of zero point foods that i love. i never feel restricted. the new myww+. don't pay until spring! your first three months are free! . >>. history will record big things this week. the president on his way out by way of impeach the and blocking the transfer of power and record the first woman, vice president of the united states, a woman of color. abby phillip takes a closer look at 10:00 p.m. eastern. harris will be a trail blazing vice president but does have something in common with some of the men that held the job before her including joe biden. that is running for president and comieing up short. >> i'm suspending our campaign today. making a decision to get out of a race is probably as difficult as making a decision to get into a race. >> kamala harris is a glass ceiling breaker, name taking history maker. if someone like that can't make it that far what does it say about our country? >>. >> reporter: her career as a prosecutor became a source of criticism from both sides of the ai aisle. do you feel like you were misunderstood. >> there are a lot of things that are misunderstood as a prosecutor where america is coming to a reckoning on a lot of issues that deal with racial inju injustice. >> abby phillip is with us now. abby, looking forward to watching the hour tonight, how does she handle the history of this? there is so much going on. we learned she's going to resign from the senate on monday. she picked two bibles, thurgood marshall, soto mior, does she understand the history? >> she's constantly been the first woman, the first black woman, the first south asian woman to be in a number of the posts she's been in so she's pretty much used to that. what i found interesting talking to her is that she doesn't dwell on the degree to which she will be the first of her kind to inhabit that role. she's very much a forward charging type of person and it's just like i'm going to get the job done but you see her not only nodding to the history here but speaking to it directly, and i think she senses a sense of responsibility in speaking for the people that she represents as she takes on this new role. >> going to be a fascinating week and hour tonight and now something even for special to me before we go. this is nearly five years ago. look at this picture april 2016 where abby phillip made her first appearance here. abby will be in this chair next sunday, her first as the anchor of "inside politics sunday with abby phillip." it was a privilege to share sundays with you more than i can say. it's also a privilege and a pleasure to pass the baton and early wakeup call to abby phillip. you're going to love this job. >> i'm really looking forward to it and when i love so much about it, it's a continuation of a tradition of "inside politics" being sort of training ground. you've talked about how this was where you kind of learned the tv ropes. this is where i learned the tv ropes from you at that table all those years are ago when i was a little cub washington post reporter and later, a television reporter. so it a tradition i'm really honored to carry on. >> great reporter and better reporter now and you'll do just great in this seat. >> abby phillip -- >> and you'll enjoy your weekend. >> the other guy lost his twitter account so you need somebody to live tweet. that's it for us this sunday, it's been an honor to be with you sundays. i hope to be with you weekdays for "inside politics" at noon. up next, jake tapper and the incoming white house chief of staff ron clklain and mcmaster d senator dick durbin. enjoy your sunday and stay safe. between what is hoped for and what can be, there's a bridge. between endangered and protected, there's a bridge. between chaos and wonder, there's a bridge. there from the beginning to where we stand today. one company. one promise. if you can imagine it, we will build the bridge to get you there. cisco. the bridge to possible. dry, distressed skin that struggles? 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>> we have a great panel today i will let you talk about that we have great questions from you we will talk about what happened in midterm elections two days ago. i still cannot believe all that happened in this election. i think the most important take away is that -- i was right about the senate in that is where we should really marinate. that is the key art. [laughter] no, -- the amount of information that was revealed about the electorate was extremely high. we know a lot more than we did before and we could not have better people to talk about it with. we are extraordinarily lucky today. if you do not know him already, -- this is a leading -- leader in washington dc. -- political consultant for more than 30 years with experience in survey research and political campaigns. he is the author of 2015 and beyond -- and decades of polling trends in the way in which new towns can help republicans win the presidency in america. we appreciate him wearing a very republican necktie today so you can tell. -- he has high level of political commitment. after being a professor, i did not know this a 10 year professor in the department of government and international studies at the university of south carolina area i thought the rest of it was making it up as we go along. we will see how it goes. and -- he demonstrates i not wearing that necktie you know he is a democrat -- he is a fellow in the -- where he focuses on the transformation and the future of -- before joining that he was the senior american fellow in 2023 through 2020 -- the yankees got babe ruth from the red sox and we had a better trade with a rival organization. he is the co-author of -- elected one of the best books of the year -- and co-author of -- selected as one of the best books of the year by the economist. co-author in a series of books called states of change, his forthcoming book -- has the age of experience. two things i will tell you about is -- we do not call it a blog it is a subset. be cool. it is subset. we are not wearing neckties. his subset is -- should be a required reading it is excellent. we could not be more fortunate to have these two with us today. we are lucky to have you guys today. we've all taken us -- a little speciality here and don fortier is going to tell us what happened in the house of representatives. >> thank you let me mention one more logistical detail he will talk and then we will go to the audience. if you have questions in the audience from those watching a far can either email your questions to nate.org that avi.org or you can go to #twitter ai a lecture -- election comments. let's talk about the house nobody is interested in that nothing happened bear. before i step back, the one historical note and on election night, tuesday, we have the death of a famous person in election studies. david butler the british -- inventor of the term's apology. --term -- so follow g -- we have a book where he commented on in the late 70's. the reason i bring him up as he should be honored as somebody who studied the elections but he was famous for introducing to television the swing-ometer it looked a little bit like a dial made of cardboard. and he showed how sort of a natural swing from one direction would have real consequences across the election not just race by race. that never caught on, here. but i think that is something we should think about. what is the swing in this election? why didn't not swing as much as maybe some of us thought. in some ways it was a weird election and there were small -- strong swings in the other direction. so, let's start with what i think some of you are here for -- i was here a few weeks ago -- it looks as if we are going to see -- look as if --looked as if we would see a stronger swing and the fundamentals looked good for republicans. president biden was at a low level of approval. it was an average of 43% for the in -- incoming president. which leads to bad results in the midterm election especially for house of representatives for that party in the white house. and i laid out at the time what i thought would be a good night for democrats where we only lost 15 seats. that put republicans to 28 with the majority. well the democrats had a good night by that standard. we do not know what the final numbers will be, the likelihood is that republicans are still going to take the house. but i'm saying the likelihood there is a little bit of uncertainty that we are in lower territory for republican gains than we into supinated -- anticipated. >> can you give a number of what you think? >> i think it is probably like to 24 or 225 that would be on the high side. i think it is a low to 20's -- 220 but the low side star stuff where with 218 -- starts to flirt with 200 18. it is certainly a possibility. but i would say is there are a number of races out there and the big wildcard -- all the races we are wondering about our big states. especially california but also seats in washington and in colorado as well. most of the mail is in but those may take quite a long time if california is just radically different than we think, and a lot more democratic coming in the mail, that is when i think the low estimate for republican may come into play. where you may say maybe they will not keep the house. with that, as you know, with a very close house even if republicans have two hundred 22 or 223 that is a narrow margin. -- 222 or 223 that is a narrow margin. even seven or eight rebellious members may be able to undo what kevin mccarthy has tried to do. i am not predicting that but arguably the closer the election is the closer the margins are the more of an intense election we may have. and if the democrats held the house i would expect it to be by 1 or 2 seats. why did we not move as far in the republican direction as we thought? you can point to a lot of reasons but republicans didn't have a swing in their direction. they moved joe biden won the popular vote by 4.5 points. it is likely to be a republican majority by .5 or so. that is a 5 or 6 point swing. we were expecting a larger swing and that would have made a lot of difference. we look at the house of representatives and we say what if republicans won all the seats? they would have 224 se ats. that is roughly where we are and that is the swing we saw. a 7 point swing would be 230 seats --that is a kind of range we were talking about. while it does not seem dramatic republicans having a wave which it is a wave, they moved in the republican direction they moved about five points in the number was not there rather than moving 7 or 7.5 points was very significant. with that, there was not an even swing. most of you know this. surprisingly, the amount of it -- florida and new york were extremely republican. republicans did incredibly well. essentially, republicans gained -- one loss and one gain -- they gained three or four seats in each case -- that is the difference in the election out there. if republicans had not done as well on election night and if redistricting both in new york and florida look like it would have gone worse we would be talking about a democratic house certainly. two big pushes into states where most of the gains republicans will see will come from those two date. -- states. republicans were doing bad in some places but they did well in other places. i look at michigan -- in the house races as well there obviously was a ballot question on abortion in michigan and people have a look at that and see if that is the reason. that michigan is a place -- republicans speaking across the midwest, republicans did not do so well. a lot of seats they may have picked up seats that were trump seats they went right past. republicans were not winning in those places. and there were a few incumbents that republicans knocked off but it seems like a barrier also. if you look at it, i don't know if we have a final number, but we have about 4 incumbents that the republicans have knocked off. the number they could have sitting in trump seats like matt car right in pennsylvania or others -- most republican seat that is also something that kept back this. in the end of the day we saw a real swing for republicans, but that swing was smaller than expected. we saw strength in incumbency and democrats in the midwest. republicans should be thankful that they had big wins in new york and florida. those are probably things that will get them the majority. >> what was redistricting work in the end? >> it was not worth very much maybe 1 or 2 seats. if you look at florida ron desantis push for a more republican map and it was unclear if that would go through and that map plus his republican performance there was a lot that happened in florida and new york where the court pulled back -- i still think the net is out 2 or 3 seats in the republican direction but if you combine those two states it is a huge factor. >> i know it's too early to say because we have a jillion votes to count in california, but what do you think will happen? >> from 2004-2016 we have had a tremendous turnout. my mother is danish and danes blow off the way in terms of turnout we are not that high. for us, we have done very well. 2018 was the highest turnout for an election in modern history -- 11% in 2020. it looks like we will end up at 48% which is the second highest, very high but not quite the 2018 numbers we saw. >> ok. now let's talk about the united states senate. what you know? >> here is what i know right now. they are still counting the vote and a lot of races have been called, >> we will interrupt if there is a race call while we are doing this. we will interrupt. >> the performance general in these races i think they have legitimate expectations of taking back the senate. it looks like it did not happen and i think it is all about candidate quality trump candidates crazy candidates, weak candidates and incompetent candidates. all of those you do not want taking the seat from the other party. the one that people talk most about where the seats that the democrats wanted to flip which was pennsylvania, wisconsin, arizona, new hampshire, georgia, and nevada. we have called both these races in pennsylvania and wisconsin. in pennsylvania john fetterman does well against a bad candidate. look at arizona a bad candidate. in georgia bad candidate. new hampshire bad candidate. so we are certainly trying to win these races with a foot ways -- foot race with both feet tied together. i tried to look at the internals of the vote cast which i recommend to you is a fast -- fantastic data source and significantly better in my opinion than the polls tend to rely. and now the vote cast is started in 2018 so we have 2018 and 2022 which is the time series that allows for interesting comparisons. looking at that, one thing that was interesting about pennsylvania is that the nonwhite working class, the -- did far worse for fetterman than they did for biden. -- fetterman really did relatively well. it was not among working-class voters. it seemed like the candidate that the republicans nominated really did hurt them among that demographic. in general fetterman had an easy time winning. you have a reverse winning with mandela barnes. he was a weak on crime candidate and in other words too far left. in wisconsin he looked like the nonwhite boat held up well for the democrats but the white vote themselves -- that is why johnson had the victory. arizona has not been called out yet but some believe that mark kelly will win and actually so why did he win? he is running as a terrible candidate and awful candidate and he did in fact wind up selling. the big change is that hispanic vote held up. it made a contributed difference in kelly's win. there was a strong direction in the democrats of the -- this election. that is primarily the larger margin he will receive in this race compared to how biden did in 2020. it looks like they held surf. you had a terrible candidate, herschel walker, running against -- basically the parties went like this and it ended up being the same race that biden ran in 2023 and now it will run off. i think the expectation there is that the democrats will take the c. but it we will see that it doesn't really matter much probably because of nevada. ccm is how i prefer to say it it looks like she will hold on even though -- is ahead by 1.5 points because they are counting ballots. most people who look at this closely think in fact that ccm will have the victory. in that case, the runoff in georgia will not matter that much. it will matter 51-49 but the democrats will control the senate and i think that is likely. new hampshire, a seat that republicans thought they would have a good chance of taking, but again, a really bad candidate and assisted by the democratic party which is interesting -- democratic party . we see a lot of republican underperformance in the races that could contribute to the inability to nominate replacement level candidates. average good cases -- candidates in these cases. perhaps their vote minimizing candidates in these races. and surprise, surprise, they lost. even though democrats were not a voter -- voters in this state [indiscernible] we are on unstable delivery at american politics between the democrat and republican party. it has been a super closely divided senate and house. voters do not like either party very much. but in terms of the candidates they look forward to this election. -- i think this would be good for the republicans because the voices are in a crescendo in the republican party that this is not working. trump is not a winner trump politics is not a winner with the kind of candidates he favors. i think we need to change and do something differently. this will not pass. i think while trump will be hard to get out of the way with candidates there is a real emphasis they are to change the approach of the republican party. and above all nominate competent candidates who can compete effectively in an election and obviously that was not trump's highest priority. people are sick of it. on the other end i look at the demo rats and my take on what they will do is -- as joe biden eloquently put it. nothing. -- we did not get -- we had a relatively good it -- mid election and midterms. they hate party -- our party and biden they think the country is on the wrong track -- no problem. we did great. nothing needs to change going forward. i think the emphasis in the party -- they may have to push the party to the center on a lot of these issues. and it will be undercut by this election result. i think the left party advocating that this is an fantastic -- a fantastic victory. even though most voters do not know what this is they trust us and love us and we can cruise into 2024. trump who they hope is a nominee who i write about in my subtext this morning it is appalling the way democrats are rooting for trump to be the candidate now. they do not want to run against ron desantis or someone like that they want to run against trump so they can be them and trump endorsed candidates because they think they can beat them. they say democracy is on the ballot we have to preserve our wonderful democratic system again and leave this at the door. so which is it? come on. if it seems like you care about the health of the democracy you do not want trump to run in 2024. you want, but it candidates who understand the basic rules of the game. but that means the democrats may have to change from a nation. >> i want to ask you more about that, but i want to take the temperature of the other two people up here. -- you said you thought the democrats would be favored to win in the georgia runoff, do you think that is true, john? >> i think there's a different dynamic for the senate. i think he is right we are leading toward the not so decisive. but i actually do not think -- one thing we have in the last election was trump making a mess and continuing telling people -- you're saying telling people not to vote. and just continuing in a direction of the election. -- we do not have that here. i guess and think it is more of a neutral election than it was in 2020. >> republicans in georgia tend to win runoffs. -- the voter motivation gets harder and the electorate shrinks. it's harder to get low income younger voters to go in twice. >> are major race was paul coverdale in 1992 where he came back from being one point down and gained a couple points and one by one point two days before thanksgiving. this is a different environment. i think it is a coin flip. it looks from all the world like an even shot. i think you flip a coin and see which one wins. >> i have to think republicans. >> i think they revert to partisanship -- but for any georgians watching i am sorry for what you have to indoor after having a quarter billion dollars dropped on your head in ads and mailers. get ready for the last hundred billion or. and i do want to ask you, democrats propped up a bunch of real dirt bag candidates around the country. some of them were kooks -- and election deniers. these deniers around the country. from a cold, eye cool point of view -- point of view they succeeded. all of this candidates loss. >> they succeeded in brutal short-term election terms. i disapprove of it with a pro-democracy -- pro our society and i think it is a bit cold in the sense you can prop up these guys and now the republican party has gotten the best in they think they need to change. you are not in a position or you can effectively campaign against the other party. i think the republicans are uninterrupted at this point. they realize these kind of candidates do not work too well, therefore, we should not support this type of candidate. i think in the end this may turn out to not work out so well for the democrats. but in the short term, i think it will win. >> they are cynical as all get out. you either believe in democracy or you do not. >> peter meyer was one of the good guys. -- democrats intervened in his primary and got a right wing guy to beat him in the primary and yes, democrats won the seat. but one of the people who are helping make the system work is gone from the house because of a democratic intervention in a primary. i am sorry, either you believe in democracy or you do not. >> i think that is broadly true but i do think there are limitations on this. there are two super candidates out there who were talking republican majority if they run which is governor -- new in new hampshire and arizona. they were candidates that you can get. you do not always have those options. you think about pennsylvania where there has not been statewide holders. it represents a small's -- a small part of the state. you see candidates like ron johnson and i know people question if he's a good candidate or not but he is one elections against strong people not doing as well either. i think candidate quality is something that there is a trend to push down the numbers to help someone with more traditional candidates also myself. >> a good opportunity to talk about that with johnson -- one point. i take you through it quick run through the governor elections. and ballots around the country. we will do the referendum first which is that arkansas, north dakota, south dakota do not like weed. missouri and maryland like them up. they are on their way. that ratchet effect around the country with recreational marijuana continues. much like sports gambling has in california. i forget which i know california defeated both i think sports gambling, but the stuff happens that way one state gets it and then the other state gets the revenue and they say we will have to suck it up and do it because we want the tax revenue. abortion was interesting. michigan and california both put roe in both of their states constitution. california not surprising. roe passed 57-43 it is interesting to see michigan which is a roman catholic state and a conservative state. that number is tough. -- kentucky also were surprised they rejected a measure that would amend the state constitution saying there is no right to abortion. so if kentucky in appalachia the real threat was there. we will go through the governors quickly. democrats left maryland and acid tooth sits where republicans were playing out a position they had popular republican governors into of the most democratic states in the country. and they were term limited in maryland and retired in massachusetts without the unicorn candidates. they were bound to happen anyway. the impressive hole for democrats was wisconsin, kansas, michigan, and oregon. in all of the states the -- it was a factor. we saw in the states they had a referendum on the ballot they had in norma's turnout there. kelly in cans is definitely owes something to that. and so does witmer in michigan. and in wisconsin, to point out tony evers he outperformed mandela barnes by three points something like that. one of the big stories of the election this year is how much ticket splitting went on. there's a lot of under voting where people skipped over senate races where you had wacky doodle candidates. but you had georgia, pennsylvania is specially where you saw around the country people passing over and ohio with j.d. vance who sounded like he was a member of the chamber of commerce and rotary love -- club in his recession speech. i was like where have you been all this time? he trailed by thousands of votes in ohio. and what those groups or you results -- governor results in ohio show and new hampshire show two things that republicans could have had the senate. they could have had 53 seats of republicans if they would not have had weirdo candidates. and the second thing is clear that republicans wasted so much money. i mean enough money to burn a wet elephant [laughter] they spent money and ohio which is a very republican state. ohio has been very republican they had to go in and bailout date events who could not raise any money. -- i take real encouragement from the performance of -- whatever you think of ron desantis's politics whether you like him for president or not, leave that aside, floridians think he has done a good job as governor. they like the way he handled coronavirus, the schools, his physicians on crime, they think that. a lot of democrats voted for ron desantis and he will and among independents as well. he overwhelmingly won among independents. he a man who wins his first term by a point he wins the next term by 20 points. that is not just the state getting more republican that is people liking that result of the leader and what they are doing. when we look at charlie baker in massachusetts or larry hogan and maryland a democratic state people are still capable of choosing better choices. governors are different do not send a kook to washington before they have one govern their own state. the responsibilities are different but i take encouragement from these results in all of this splitting. now that i made you briefly optimistic, to talk about the consequences of the election of what will happen next. we go to wit. >> obviously ai has been the sanity -- aei has been the sanity among chaos. i appreciate being here. this is been a ran tsunami like -- a red tsunami like most of the people are seeing -- thinking. a lot of people are saying that it is a triumph over data but it should have been a tsunami, why? inflation is at a 40 year high and it is in -- fundamentally important to more abstract issues like democracy or climate change. it affects every single voter every single day. overall inflation did not begin to measure the inflation against the prices of groceries which are two of the things people feel most directly. we had 40 year high inflation and crime which was a real problem. it was not a trump-ed up problem so to speak. people are scared to go to -- because they are scared they will get shot. and crime affects people differently. the order looks completely porous at the moment. i guarantee you there is not in our that passed on fox news without another story of another group of migrants coming over the border. those issues alone should have led to a red tsunami. why did not happen? the first reason is dobbs overturning roe v. wade energize women and young people. the number one issue at 44% for young people under age 30 was abortion. that really did change the dynamic and it leveled the playing field on enthusiasm. the other issue even more important which we talked about is the candidate quality. donald trump endorsed and got through a bunch of primaries with people who are not ready for prime time. it is hard it is really hard to run a high-profile senate race with the eyes of the world on you if you've never done it before. like most of us, the first time we do something difficult we probably do not do it as well when we do it the second third or fourth time. there are all whole lot of new candidates out there. we mentioned masters and all kinds of places ohio, j.d. vance he managed to get through because of the republican lead of his state. pennsylvania -- there are so many places where there were not -- they were not ready for prime time candidates. half of my office consist of -- georgia bulldogs. i am not allowed to say a negative word about herschel walker. one of the guys has been wearing a herschel walker t-shirt i think since he was in kindergarten. let's put it this way -- herschel walker was carrying baggage across the line in georgia. it was pretty embarrassing. the combination of dobbs and the candidate quality meant that the red tsunami did not happen. but i think republicans will take over the house or it will be close. it is amazing to think about with joe biden's drop -- job approval in the low 40's republicans should have had a huge advantage for presidents who have job approval below 50%, this goes back to the truman era , the average loss of house seats is 37. that is average. the lowest loss of house seat for presidents who have job approval less than 50% is 13. that happen in 2014 with barack obama. the only reason they lost 13 is they lost everything they could have lost in 2010 when they had 63 seats. so the lowest loss of a presidents party in 50% going back to truman is 13 we can actually beat that this year and be lower than 13. but i do think republicans will eventually end up with controllable house. so the republicans in the house need to figure out why. the people who voted for republican candidates in the house it -- they voted for somebody to do something about inflation, crime, and border security. those are the reasons why voters voted for republican candidates for the house. what are not vote for them to do? they did not vote for them to ban all abortions and -- nationally, cut off aid in ukraine, in investigations of the biden administration and whine about elections they have not one. they have pressure to do all four of those things instead of focus on inflation, crime, and border security. if they give into that pressure, as they may, they will create a backlash that will put democrats back in control in two years. the real challenge for both parties is governing where most people are which is in -- the pressure on both parties is so great that the democrats had a governor from the left republicans from the right and people in the middle come along and threw them out again because that is not what they were looking for. we end up with a ping-pong government. in 2006 we had democrat. 2010 we throughout the dimmick yet -- the republicans. 2022 we will throw out the democrats. at least in the house. so there is a ping-pong government. the function of getting into power and governing from the wings rather than from the center where most people are. >> let's make other quick points and then we will open it up for discussion. pulling was good this year. there were a few high-profile misses but for the most part, polling was pretty good. it was sort of like 2018 where polling was pretty good. when you look at the polling, you would think brian camp was going to win comfortably in georgia and the senate race would be tied. you would think josh shapiro would win overwhelmingly in pennsylvania and federman would win a narrow race. you know that mike the lion was going to win a landslide for governor in ohio. and j.d. vance would win by single digits. you would think but in north carolina would win a narrow victory based on polling and he did. so, the problem with polling is a trump problem. it is a problem when trump is on the ballot. that is what we saw on 2016, 2020, there is a real bombing in polling with major issues. this year they recognize they actually did really well. final point, joe biden -- and brad raffensperger and the republican senate and the house and in georgia and apology for calling the voter bill jim crow 2.0. i am sorry. that is sheer demagoguery. i waited bent most democrats in the mainstream media -- mi redundant? anyway, -- mi redundant? am i redundant? -- the fact is that 3.9 million georgians voted. and we get the counted it will be close to 4 million georgians that voted. if it was a close election -- it was a disaster for suppressing the vote -- if it was a redistricting issue it was a disaster for suppressing the vote. -- let me turn it over to you and stop there. >> let me end with one question. two reasons that you pull in various issues in the southeast. both in the midwest and southeast differ from republicans in any other coalitions. those who are really successful in the midwest have the kind of old establishment of colleges and they picked up from the development republicans doing much better along the white working class. rising college education and votes used to be more republican but you still have a -- how do you see republicans bringing those together and what the challenges are for those? >> there's no question that education particularly college education is a critical variable we did not see 10 years ago. but there's another piece of the pole coalition and that is the republicans doing better among nonwhite voters. kevin mccarthy who is credited as recruiting a lot more diverse republican candidate to run, that is part of the message in the book i wrote that chris mentioned at the start. it is the necessity to expand the republican coalition into more hispanic and african-american and asian voters. we have actually made progress on that score. i think if we have a candidate who does not have some of the herbology is that some of our candidates have -- both marco rubio and ron desantis one miami-dade county. that is a stunning statistic for florida. that bodes well for the republican party in the future if we have candidates that reach out to those groups. >> by the way give nate something more to do he is sitting here watching. email your questions if you're watching at home in your office or wherever you are na temoore@aei.org get your questions in an we will go a little bit longer before we go to your questions here in the room. be thinking about your brilliant and insightful questions. we say please state your opinion in the form of a question. [laughter] >> and all i want -- i want to talk about the consequences of the small bejewel ready for republicans in the house. it is counterintuitive -- it seems contradictory that the smaller the republican majority and more democrats, the crazier they will be. you would think more means more but what happens is in a smaller majority, the voices of the most extreme are louder. because if you can only afford -- if there are 40 members of the maga caucus then they have veto power over everything you want to do and you do not have a cushion. that puts mccarthy in a difficult position. i've heard it all before from republicans, this time is different. after they smash in the windows of the capital and try to killed mike pence and they say we learned our lesson, we will back away from the crazy stuff and we will get legit. this week i'm reading in the new york post and washington wall street times and i am hearing people say now they have learned their lesson. but i read someplace else that the freedom caucus will have someone come in and talk to them to settle everybody down over there. how do you see starting with you, how do you see the republican majority in the house behaving? >> how i would like for it to behave is to concentrate on inflation, crime, and order security. >> i would like that as well but that is not in my life. >> exactly. if past is prologue, the small house majority will govern from the right. and get engaged in all the u.s. investigations, cut off aid to ukraine, and ban abortions, and put democrats back in charge. i hope that is not correct, but i see no reason to think we will have an outcome any different than what we've had in past election. >> joe biden already pointed out what will we do differently? nothing. what will we change? nothing. i am happy aware i am. i am reminded of barack obama after 2010 the shellacking they took they just plowed right ahead. why can't anybody remember how successful bill clinton was you say we have heard the message -- and certainly donald trump did not take a message from the 2018 results, is this all we are going to get? or will we see something different out of democrats this time? >> we shall see, but i think there are a lot of forces pushing democrats in the direction of not taking the problem seriously. why did they not take things out of bill clinton's playbook? the media activist is a liberal party now -- you look at it a betrayal with the most awful grotesque politics that the democrats possibly would pay attention to. he was always trying to persuade people to think -- that we want to get people out there to vote and look at how successful we word this election. so i think that -- 2024 as it comes into focus the senate is incredibly bad for democrats in 2024. you talked about that there is a wide variety of red and state -- purple states -- i think the marketplace will come through and concentrate the mind among democrats, but i think their initial reaction to this particular election is not going to be toward change. as president bynum has so clearly indicated. and he is rather patting himself on the back and saying that went pretty well. let's keep rocking. i think we are early in the 2024 cycle, and i think as we get closer to that election and the nature of things the electoral environment comes into focus and specifically for republicans -- they sort of get their act together. it puts pressure on them to get their act together. but the bottom line is, i am not optimistic in the short term. >> it is the same bet in washington for some time. [laughter] i will say, i mentioned before, -- it seemed like governor mccarthy was really going to avoid that. it is close and -- if you want to look at how bad of a massive could be you look at the 19th century with charles stuart -- fighting for seekers ship. and you look at times where we went months without a speaker. i am not predicting that, but that is something to closely watch for. the one thing that cuts against it is they are not a governing position. it is useful to put forward your agenda, but they are in the minority. holding people together in the minority is often easier. and now the majority coming out with the future republican president is a real issue. and the other thing i would say is during budget times is when we will see it. we are asking republican narrow majority congress to basically have appropriations bills. it will be difficult pulling together. that is one of a time that minorities would have to step up to bat. and one thing i think that is harder to push forward in inflation, both sides have people who pushed to impeach presidents. and generally the leaders have pushed back. if you have a small majority it is harder to get everyone together. but there are some optimist. >> what you think the chances are that they will get a more specific version -- your point about the leadership white speaks to declared for more geordie leader -- majority leader -- says he's not going to fight. and the guy who is -- if it's not mccarthy who is the next most logical choice, -- the former president having the breakdown in mar-a-lago what do you think the possibility is that trump parachutes in and screws up the speakership for mccarthy? >> i don't know if they want to it seems they have made up a little bit and it seems like it's going ok. but if you have three or four wildcards, is not somebody coming up saying i will be the person to unite anybody. you cannot unite them around anyone. if somebody says we will not -- have a speaker. it opens up everyone to a square one chaos. jim jordan getting chick-fil-a delivered to his house by kevin mccarthy right now. jim i want to make sure you are doing great and you are having a great day. ok, are you emailing your questions to the email we gave? i hope you are. we will start in the room. we will given this very magical space. we will come to you i promise. i will continue to say words while you carry a microphone over to this gentleman. it is all happening. thank you for your great question. there is a lot of pressure on you. it has to be good now. >> inc. you each for speaking. there's a lot of talk about candidates on the republican side and being weak during this election may be because they will lose but what about pennsylvania? you have somebody that can form a complete sentence and someone who had trouble doing that and i was curious about your thoughts on that. >> well i may be more articulate than john fetterman, but he also had enormous liability the carpet back area was muted and many people-- just the fact thaa slick talker was not going to be enough. i think a lot of republicans did talk themselves into believing that john fetterman was so flawed, especially after the stroke, but i think they sort of ignored the underlying vulnerabilities in a candidate like oz. a data point is how serious a problem is that john fetterman has these health problems, whatever, and it was x amount, and that oz was not from pennsylvania was an even bigger problem, that was a dealbreaker. that tells you something about how people were interpreting the election and feeling vitamin versus oz. -- fetterman versus oz. >> there are a lot of republicans who would not want herschel walker to be their best friend were willing to vote for him. partisanship is a hell of a drug. it helps people get past a lot of things. of fetterman had withdrawn after his stroke, it would have been over. >> in a way, it had a we are dynamic in the race and that fetterman is not as strong a candidate as some are portraying him, he does have this ability to appeal to white working-class. we didn't really scrutinize him in a certain way because of the trail. the full fetterman, healthy, might've been another choice. >> what do we got, what's cooking on the old internet machine? >> someone online is wondering, what was the correlation between the top of state tickets and the house elections? the trump candidates drive down the republicans? -- drag down the republicans? [overlapping chatter] >> we needed help. >> there were different places. but you look at places like michigan, the democrats had good incumbents. who withstood trends. but the whole state seemed to move. whether it was just the top of the ticket, governor whitmer, the abortion referendum, or more broadly issues that brought out college-educated individuals, you saw this trend that pulls -- at polls across the way. virginia actually, republicans did well in virginia broadly speaking. abigail spanberger did a lot better. winning, but winning by a very small amount. you saw strong movements at some of the top of the ticket races. some going the other way. i think you see it in some states. >> do we have any states where you had a weak or maga-y senate candidate and no governor running? arizona, nevada, pennsylvania, georgia all had both, right? so maybe the answer is that we don't have a good test, because of a lot of these states also having a strong gubernatorial candidate, too. so it is hard to say. let's do one more online and we will come back to the room. >> i've got a name this time. nick is wondering, assuming the republicans win the majority, will nancy pelosi after her current term step aside or will she continue to serve as minority leader? what else might happen within the democratic party? >> i guess my expectation is she will step down. i'm not privy to any inside information on that. i think jeffries -- i think jeffries is a very smart politician that is aware of many of these problems. i have more faith that he would try to do something more than pelosi. he might be willing to do some stuff to have a more productive relationship within the caucus. >> or all three leaders stepping aside. >> [indiscernible] >> that's a good question. i agree with you. jeffries is a strong person to wipe away the current leadership and move to somebody new. there one weird situation with the democrats holding on by one state. that's a crazy situation -- there is one weird situation with the democrats holding on by one seat. that's a crazy situation. [laughter] i think that it's probably true that a big majority -- if you are in the minority, with a big minority, there are similar effects to having a small majority, which is to say the bigger the minority, the louder voices like abigail spanberger are going to be, because normally what happens is when you lose an election, who loses? moderates lose. because they are in swing districts. industries like abigail spanberger. they go out with a tie. i suppose there are reasons to think rudy is onto something that it might go a little bit better for democrats and minorities. >> maybe. >> i've been trying to elbow you want to positivity. >> we are going to do it before we are done. you've had your hand up up here. right behind here. >> thank you very much. [indiscernible] approval ratings. i would like to challenge you to think of the high approval rating. biden had virtually no coattails when he was elected. he has the largest majority in the senate and the smallest pretty much majority in the house. he really was not very popular. elizabeth warren, bernie sanders people, basically he was a suck up candidate. people voted for him because he was there. the question is, how does that go forward to resell people over 75 not running for president? >> what do we do about the fact that the leadership has the approximate age of the dead sea scrolls? [laughter] >> both elizabeth warren and bernie sanders, there are individuals that would like to see none of the above. [laughter] >> we are going to have the quietest but the celebration for president opera. -- for president ever. the good lord has a way of getting rid -- [laughter] >> there are organic solutions to these questions. i would also just say, intergenerational conflict is not new. baby boomers forget their parents hated them. oh my gosh, it's not like they said, i love you guys dropping acid and going down to the basement and playing psychedelic music. so, this kind of intergenerational conflict we are experiencing between the baby boom and the millennial group, the millennials are now the largest single cohort. is that true? >> that is true. >> we are in a push me, pull me phase and it will resolve itself. >> one other thing to say is, joe biden was in a worse position back in the spring. and that is when you start hearing the voices of someone challenging him. that's died down. i know people may have been in the back of their head. >> one more in the room in the back. yes, sir. >> i am a freelance journalist and analyst. i've been in conversation with some of my colleagues online, and they have the impression one of the biggest losers in this is glenn youngkin. >> i saw that article. >> is that true or not? secondly you were talking about referendums about abortion, you did not mention 131 in montana and that language. i was wondering about what your thoughts about that were as well. >> in montana, the born alive act, a child is protected with that act in montana, the glenn youngkin question is, the wrap on him is, he campaigned for a bunch of candidates will lost. what a bunch of candidates lost. i think you -- the biggest winner of the night -- the biggest winner of this week was ron desantis. he blew the doors off charlie crist. he outperformed rubio. and he did it after trump snub bed him and called them ron desantimonious. [laughter] >> it was like watching a cartoon on a pro wrestling match. -- at a pro wrestling match. [laughter] >> i think trump is the big loser. i don't think glenn youngkin is hurt in any material way. it essentially helped him in a sense. if republicans had made a decision that they were ready to try to persuade voters and reach out to swing voters, glenn youngkin was the first one through the gate. it was the first republican candidate after 2020 to say, here's another way to do this and try to persuade, instead of just appeals of the base. does anybody have a different opinion? >> i agree with that. it is important to understand the current divisions within the republican party. about 10% of the party are never trumpers. they didn't vote for him or approve of his job performance. they were appalled that he came and took over the party. we would like to think it is about over 10%. many will walk through a wall of flames for trump, on the moon, he is the best guy that has ever come down in politics. criticizing donald trump's with trump voters is like criticizing jesus in an evangelical church. you can criticize them all you want, it's not going to change the view of jesus or donald trump, but it will sure trash the reputation of whoever said something negative about him. 50% of the party are may be trumpers. these are people who voted for him twice, approved of his job performance, they would vote for him again and part -- again in a heartbeat against joe biden. but they are not sure they want to go back to all the drama and divisions and disparages. and they are open to somebody else. they will go to somebody else, they are open to somebody else. and that is where a ron desantis or glenn youngkin comes in. they are at least going to give them a look. that is half the party. the other half begs the question how many people get into the race? if it is desantis and youngkin versus term, it is a completely different race than if it is a dozen other people against trump. >> we saw tom cotton early before even the voting started or the voting stops, saying he was dropping out, that he was on that long list with pompeo and a bunch of people who were going to audition to be the maga without the trump, in more popular stick working class oriented maybe a little more protectionism or isolationism, and cotton bowed out. >> there still is some worry and fears of donald trump about people who may be in the same lane as him. somebody might have to do it. the biggest question is for desantis. back to the youngkin question, you are going to get portray to some extent as the non-term candidate. can you keep a foot in the trump world? the sentence looks like he has a better mix of having a foot into trump voters as well as the non-trump voters. youngkin i think potentially falls in the category of, maybe he's not -- maybe there's a little more pizzazz among the trump voters. he's playing that up a little bit too much and not working on the other side of the break. >> let's go back to the internet. what more do we have? what's going on? >> one more. if the republicans nominated more centrist or non maga candidates, wouldn't the maga republicans have stayed home and the republicans would've lost anyway? >> i think he is correct to. i think for most republicans, they would vote for donald trump, but they also would've voted for chris christie or marco rubio or ted cruz. the partisanship trumps. pun intended. that is what is important. there was about 20%, then the really hard-core, i found them when we were polling, when trump was in a vicious fight with a family, a soldier who was killed in iraq, and they were in a twitter -- he was in a twitter wall with the goldstar family. and republicans were like, don't do that. that's not a good thing to do. people don't like that. and there was 20% in a poll we did when i was at fox and other surveys elsewhere that said, keep going. keep fighting with these people. so there are people inside the republican party who love the worst parts about trump. they love the feudalism, the anger, they love that stuff. because it is good to be. it is super entertaining. -- good tv. it is super entertaining. if you feel like you've been victimized, if you like the mainstream media and the democratic party, you feel like all these people have been victimizing you and others, what is appealing about trump is what? he is angry. there's a scene in "all the kings men," never the sean penn version, sorry, and in the book, where willie is there glistening with sweat and the torches are lit and he is talking about all the enemies of the crowd that have come to save him from impeachment. and he says, give me that meat axe. and the crowd goes crazy. that kind of anger is really powerful for people who feel victimized. and the republican party has a problem, which is that feels too good for those people. i think in most of these cases, that would have come out and voted for david mccormick instead of mehmet oz. and whoever the georgia nominee could have been. some old boring guy. >> i feel with how sure walker -- with herschel walker. >> but if they would've come out to vote for james instead of j.d. vance, i think in most of the cases it wouldn't have made a difference. the republicans do have to acknowledge that there is this white-hot anger in there that trump is really good at speaking to. the rage addiction is a real thing, and it can be. >> i might add from the democratic side, you have a similar dynamic. if you advocate the democrat should move to the center on various issues, a lot of people will say, well, if we do that, the progressives won't vote. they won't show up. the hispanic voters, like motors. i think this is ludicrous. there would be happy to vote for a more centrist democrat. the idea that they are all going to stay home and rage against the machine, i think that is incorrect. there's not a lot of evidence for it. a sort of house and cards created by the activist groups, to represent these constituencies. we represent the black voters, we represent hispanic voters, we represent, you know, everybody who was democratic, and they don't. they represent their agenda, and the fact of the matter is, the democrats would be a good trade-off moving to the center on a lot of the issues that are currently vexing them, because it would gain more persuasion and reach people in the center than you would lose people who would say home. but the fact that they would all stay home, that they have the power to make them stay home, that is just not right. these people live in the real world. they know what their choices are. most of them are going to come out and vote for the party they prefer. regardless of whether it is more centrist or not. so i just think a dynamic takes place on both sides. the reason why a lot of progressives will put up with it is because of the white hot thing, they are so furious at term, at the republican party, the ultra mega maga that are going to institute fascism in the u.s. they just can't stand it. we can't compromise, we can throw anybody under the bus -- we cannot throw anybody under the bus. our leader joe biden says we should change nothing because we are right, they are wrong, they are hateful, bigoted, racist, they want to destroy democracy, and we have to hold the line. but it's predicated on a theory of the case that is incorrect. >> sometimes when people say we want these candidates, really centrist candidates in the republican party, locked in the middle of the party, the candidates did really well -- that did really well were the ones who were even attacked by trump. brian kemp, raffensperger, if you see brian kemp's early ads, is a pretty conservative guy, yet he did not engage as, i'm an anti-trump person. he just went forward and did his thing. that is a better model. [overlapping chatter] >> i think you're exactly right. i don't want to ignore the dames. sooner or later if you do, you see the sales on the horizon -- sails on the horizon. [laughter] >> thank you for the conversation here. it's great to be here. if you were an election denier, the election was pretty bad. in certain states, they won, and others, they lost. are we done talking about election deniers? is that a chapter that is behind us? or will it come back? >> no, it will come back. >> election deniers do not want to stop talking about election denying. it is a thing now. and democrats basically love to talk about election deniers, and the media. it is a story. there are always going to be people out there saying these things. the fact that no people stormed the barricades in this election, nobody seems to be out there with lemon george is trying to destroy democracy, but i think it is a resistible. for both sides, i think, to talk about it. >> also remember the republicans disbelieving election results dates back to the 1960 election, than long before that, the big-city machine politics. and the republican belief that they feel elections in the big-city -- by the way republican machines in big cities, thompson and chicago was just as big of a group as any of the democratic machines in chicago, he was hanging out with al capone. that was not a particularly wholesome time. widespread election fraud is part of the republican dna. what happened is that that usually relatively is a quiet crumbling that turned into this bonfire, turned into this giant, giant thing. and the very best thing that happened this year -- to great things happened this year, i already mentioned one great thing, we saw the ticket splitting and all the people saying, defining the statistics of the selection -- of this election, they were both flunked. 35% tied with favorable views of both of the parties. people looked at the democrats and said the inflation is out of control, crime is a problem, i want to do something else. then they looked over the republicans and said, not you again, i can't do that again. so they were caught between choices they did not like, and they split their ballots. we won't know the final numbers on ticket splitting until we get to the end. but that's the first piece of good news. the other good news which is really great is, this was a pretty smooth run, right? i sat all night in chicago waiting for the first reports of torches at the gates of the maricopa county -- it was fine. everything went pretty smoothly. every election cycle, there are complaints. i love maricopa county, did you see what the problem was? they had 20% of the polling place is having trouble early in the day -- did you see what the problem was? they did not put the right size on the printer to run the paper through. somebody was like, change it to 11 by -- [laughter] but your point is very much on the point. that election denial is not a particular popular point of view. look at arizona. currently it is a very polished, very cool, very smooth candidate. katie house is not. in the fact that that is even close, i think, is a function of people making a negative judgment about election denial is on. so it is a losing message from of americans -- losing message for most americans. it makes a huge difference when the president of the u.s. is the one carrying the message. that is what is different about the current environment. >> isn't it also true that no one loves to of election denialism more than the democratic party? it is their single favorite topic. i always remind people, 20% of americans believe in bigfoot. [laughter] and i'm not trying to offend any bigfoot believers here. [laughter] but i identify as a sasquatch believer. [laughter] but people hold a lot of use. -- hold a lot of views. there's a real emphasis on this in the press by democrats. >> i think he is right. there's a lot of bias on both sides. and it is ratcheted up. i also agree with you that the election was run relatively smoothly. i don't think it's going to turn one house or the other. we have a close race, we are going to start to see the types of things people start to argue about again. i hope it is more of a normal partisan fight over a recount rather than blowing up to the level of high drama. >> i think democrats are happy to have that as an issue. >> i would like to see things get back to, hey let's beat the other side. the most important election is always the next election. if we look back at history, the two single most significant american elections are 1800 and 1864. 1800, a very open question about whether they hated, and you cannot overstate the hatred that john adams had for thomas jefferson, it was the white-hot passion. and here comes thomas jefferson, he's going to replace him as president, and america held its front. can we really do this? will and incumbent president step aside and let this person who has said everything about him ever, can he really do it? and we did. in 1864 in the middle of a civil war when abraham lincoln could have, and the radical republicans who told him he was well within his rights to do it, this is no time to have an election, we are in a civil war, we can be doing this, and abraham lincoln not only stood for reelection, but it was the votes of truce, ultimately. he was running against the general who he had fired. we have had some amazing elections in the past. but the most important election in american history is always the next election. because if you don't like what happens, if you are a republican and don't like what happened this week, two years from now you get to do it again. that's the beauty of this system. and that's what we forgot. that is what we are tending to forget right now. which is, what are you supposed to say when the other side wins? you say you got it this time, we will be back next time. it is a healthy revelry that can be good for us. not the kind of rivalry that poisons us. >> and the peaceful transfer of power is a fundamental cornerstone of a democratic system. and that is why the last presidential election was so different from anything else that's happened in 230 years and is such a threat to the system. the most important election is always the next election. [indiscernible] [laughter] >> we will be back in 2024, as we have before, many, many years. with all sorts of interesting things. we don't have dates for you. >> just getting to hear your wisdom as a prize. but john is very right. i want to thank you guys and john and the american enterprise institute. i will point out that in america today, there's not a lot of places that you can go and hear a conversation with different points of view that is fairly conducted and people are unafraid to disagree, people are unafraid to hear things they disagree with, and that we can do it civilly and have lunch, that is not bad, right? so i think you guys all for being here. i thank you all for having us. we will be back for the next cycle. [applause] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2022] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute,
our coverage on the attack and subsequent investigation. we will also have reaction from members of congress and the white house. go to c-span.org/january 6 for a fast and easy way to watch when you can't see it live. >> up next, a discussion of the 2022 elections with barbara comstock, bill kristol, and catherine miller and janet rodriguez. it's about an hour 15 minutes. >> i am honored and so thrilled to be joined as the introduction mentioned, some of our great collaborators we have had. today, joining us is bill kristol who is a political analyst and founder of the weekly standard and editor at large. we also have barbara comstock, kathryn miller, the founder at and janet rodriguez who is head of communications and former white house correspondent. differing opinions and differing perspectives and backgrounds. but the common thread that i think is maybe the most important for all of you is sign institute fellow. i am so appreciative. it is so great to have you with us today. we are on the precipice of another midterm election. wewe had in the senate, 14 democratic seats, 21 republican. 32 of the 34 seats were up in 2016. it is amazing how this is the class of the senate we are looking at and what will be the control of that narrow margin. the u.s. house is going to be a big topic of conversation today as all seats are up and several of them are targeted. the primaries have pushed what kind of election we are looking at in terms of gubernatorial races. in the state legislatures, if you can believe, eth chambers in 46 states are up. all of these individuals voting soon to determine what our leaders to -- leadership structure is. we want to hear your perspectives. i want to encourage anybody who is joining us today to ask questions throughout. we are not waiting until the end. if you have questions specifically as the conversation is going. to my colleagues, this is a conversation. we will ask questions and if you want to have follow-ups between individuals and peers, let's talk this through. i guess the first thing i would like to do is give you a few minutes to get a general perspective of what you are paying attention to. we would love to start with you, barbara. as somebody who has been in the seat, and many members who are up for reelection, what are you thinking? what are you focused on? >> we know the majority -- majorities are made in swing states. while the focus has largely been on primaries to date -- republicans trump vengeance or trump trying to pick extreme election deniers, we now move into the fall where being a trump extremist is less valuable. particularly in these swing states. as i look at it, you can get a primary but if you are christine o'donnell or richard murdoch or todd akin, republicans who lost in republican states. winning the nomination did not make them a senator. we already have candidates like dr. oz who has been failing spectacularly. he is a trump-endorsed first-time candidate, not even living in pennsylvania. john fetterman, his liberal opponent has trolled him excessively for not being pennsylvanian. so he is failing in the polls, he is failing in money. blake masters in arizona and j.d. vance are both candidates that peter thiel, a trump millionaire, decided he wants to buy. these are two he has brought in -- retail candidates. mcmaster is double digits down. very extreme candidate -- talk about that and i think mark kelly is sitting on the kind of money he is, a lot happier these days. although the whole ticket in arizona is an election denying ticket, which i oppose. j.d. vance. tim robbins doing much better than expected. herschel walker. donald trump, who lost, the gift that keeps on giving for georgia democrats. rachel record now about his former wife -- [indiscernible] -- a terrible candidate. on the state front, brad raffensperger and governor kemp. there's four seats there that are not looking great. [no audio] [please stand by] >> people were talking about the huge red blowout. the number one reason is instead of having your number one issue being the economy, biden's poor ratings, trump is back in the front seat, driving the clown car for summary republicans. if you are in a swing state, that is a nightmare. i have been in a swing state when trump was in power and it didn't matter what your numbers were. trump's numbers. after the 2018 election but whatever trump's negative numbers were -- what the democrats got. almost to a tee. >> right. >> that was the gift that keeps on giving. the policies are doing better, you have seen democrat candidates outrun biden's numbers largely because of this reappearance of trump. the fact that while trump's problems are increasing -- liz cheney -- vengeance tour -- increasing legal problems. [indiscernible] trump does very poorly in court where truth and facts matter. he is now entering the factual, legal portion of his problems. today, he had guilty pleas from his lawyer. i expect see indictments, lawyers and people coming soon and perhaps even for trump himself. that is going to have an impact in swing districts. much more so than the senate -- todd young in indiana. he's out running around talking about trump -- chips act, infrastructure bill, compromise. [indiscernible] he is a great republican candidate. for a house republican [indiscernible] [indiscernible] -- everything stupid trump does. if the democrats are not totally asleep, that is going to be wrapped around your neck. because that is how house republicans play. cheney is going to be opposing election deniers. and then you have abortion looming, particularly in michigan. i do not think the gubernatorial candidate will do well. peter meyer, if the democrats are not totally asleep committee should be able to take him out. other candidates like that who won these swing districts are going to be big money sucks. -- because they have less money because donald trump is sucking all the money. you heard how he -- all this money, that is money that is not going to republican candidates. people protesting in mar-a-lago are not getting a single vote in a swing district. -- reappearing at this time is -- both financially and though twice to the -- house as well as the senate. >> as always, you gave a really great overview. i have to say, if you look at past lives, we've got a battle amongst research directors. you led the research team for president bush's campaign in 2000. i first met catherine miller, and everyone knows her so well for her work in food policy and everything she has done, but she also wore the head of research director at the d triple c where editor -- where i met her. we are going to have you go next and give you an overview. >> i don't have much to disagree with. [laughter] >> we are already building consensus. >> jokingly, i say we should all be eating crudites and not with sulci. the ability for democrats to capitalize on some of foibles of the republican party and the missteps, the personal problems, the challenges and the ties to an extremist arm that sometimes does not believe the world is round. it is, i think, going to pay dividends. that's to say on the senate side, we are always looking at voter protection efforts. i also designed the voter protection efforts for dccc for several cycles. we will look at policy conversations and think it is going well. and there are always efforts to prevent people from voting legitimately. we saw the strengths of the indigenous population in alaska, a democrat made that runoff. that was largely on the strength of a native population. we can look optimistically at the changing momentum for democrats, but we have to keep a strong eye, especially in those roles based on native and indigenous population voter suppression efforts and make sure that is a priority at the committee right now. and at the white house. on the house side, a little more pessimistic. going all the way back precolonial, all politics is local. i look at some of these places i cannot imagine voting for some of these candidates. yet, it is happening. i am from rural north florida. republicans in the first district invited -- to speak at the high school like, come, talk to us. why would you bring this into a high school? i think the thing that i watched as a policy person, especially related to food and as we move into farm bill season where we're going to write the largest piece of legislation that employs farmers and feeds americans who controls the house and senate agriculture committees. there's no bigger question right now in my mind. and so i'm looking at places like georgia. i'm looking at places like michigan. i'm looking at places like mark kelly, the senate race and the house races there. i'm looking to see what happens. chuck grassley is gonna hang on, you know, with dear life to that senate seat. but you know what iowa and the redistricting in iowa means for the houses house races there. i think the next 82 days are going to be really interesting. we always say that, but there's a lot at play here and it is national momentum related to issues. the challenge is localized efforts and then we're really gonna have to pay attention to voter suppression and voter protection efforts across the country. and then we should all be voting on the issues that we care about. and we see this with, you know, abortion taking a front row on the supreme court. they're really motivated. a lot of voters on the democratic side and on the republican side. so issues are going to take a play in this in this election cycle, but wow, it's going to be a ride. >> yeah. and i think in a great way, katherine, you bring up elections have consequences. right? so many of the decisions that we're making in november affect decisions that will be happening at the beginning of the year around policy. i'm gonna go to you now, bill, because i think when i started this job, if any of my democratic friends knew that one of my favorite things is to go have coffee with you at compass coffee, they'd be shocked. but it is. and i've learned a lot from you. so i really want to know your perspective. you've been writing certainly a lot about the elections and what you're seeing, but you've also a veteran of these campaigns and looking from different perspectives. what are you seeing and what is really standing out to you? >> well, thanks, amy. and it's good to be with everyone and i enjoy the coffees too. i myself have always been more open minded and therefore happy to have coffee with sensible democrats. but that's okay. i'm sure it does shock some people. i guess i just pick up maybe on really what katherine sort of implied, but didn't quite say, which is we are really in uncharted waters. and one reason, i think incidentally everyone's like, oh, it was very surprising what's happening in the generic congressional poll because it's so different from biden. well, yeah, but you know, this is not 2010, it's not 2014, it's not 1994. we have had the trump presidency, which was unprecedented in many ways. and i'm not even making a judgment here. i'm just saying analytically empirically, we've not quite gone through this before. two impeachments, never been in politics before, becomes president. everything that happened, of course, we've had a post presidency that's unprecedented with him wanting to stay ahead of the party, staying ahead of the party. being investigated by the fbi, being impeached, but not convicted. the very, very end of his presidency, january 6. i will stress is unprecedented. and the after effects of that very unpredictable. and i'd say the after effects unprecedented in the sense that many of us expected. well, that might be the moment. and finally, the party liberates from trump. and in a sense, we get back to a more normal situation and that didn't happen, which is kind of, we now take that for granted, but it's really if you step back and think, well, what we would have all said on january 7th, it's pretty astonishing. so it's a very astonishing and unpredictable moment. and then roe v wade, a 49 year old precedent that everyone thinks of it originally and so forth, overturned on a purely partisan. let's call it a decision that's handed down by judges entirely appointed by presidents of one party. that was not the case, of course. originally with roe v. wade. 5-4 decision, 6-3 on the judgment because roberts would have sustained the upheld the mississippi law, but would not have overturned roe nationally. so 5-4 on that, three of the five being appointed by trump, one of the most controversial presidents in our history. we have not had this experience. there is zero historical precedent for this. we've had the court be controversial. obviously, in fact, brown was extremely controversial. roe was controversial. republicans ran against the war in court and with some success in the sixties and seventies. but we have just not had an election season where this has been central and it really is an issue. it's not just symbolically interesting. i mean, actual governors are gonna make a difference in michigan and wisconsin and elsewhere as to what the actual laws on the subject that's actual importance to a lot of americans. it's gonna be, you know, so it's not like people, i remember talking to my friends, many of them old friends, pro life friends very much minimizing the alito draft opinion came out in the spring. oh, well, you know what? never, everyone always says it's gonna be a big political issue. there's diehards, especially in the pro life side, it never really matters. it's not gonna affect, just gonna lance the boil, it's gonna settle down. i mean, it could have happened, it could still happen incidentally, four years from now. we could look back and say, well, settle down, we have different laws in different states and so forth. no federal legislation perhaps, but for now it's the boil, it's alive and political issue. and again, so you put all this together and we don't know, i mean, honestly, we don't know, i will say i was early in saying that the fact that biden was unpopular did not necessarily mean there would be a huge republican wave. i've been through these races as we all have, where there is a popular popularity, the president does drive things. and you could argue that that's even more the case with the nationalizing of elections. on the other hand, certainly, senate races can separate and voters are also capable of saying, i'm not crazy about biden. but let's look at the two parties that are competing for control of the senate and the house or what their agendas are and what their leadership is and trump is now as part of a sort of suggested as much on the ballot, at least for now, i'd say is biden. i mean, you know, neither is on the ballot, but therefore let's say figuratively on the ballot. i think i was early and just looking and seeing in the polls that the congressional, the generic congressional ballot that for people who aren't following the stuff obsessively is, you know, opposed to simply ask a national poll. usually who would you prefer controls congress in the next session and the republicans or democrats and that's been pretty close. and the republicans were ahead by three points or so. now democrats have probably a tiny bit ahead, biden managed to sink from -8 to -15 and this year in 2022. i just looked this up the other day and the generic ballot has gone in the other direction by a couple of points. so all the conventional now, maybe it will ultimately work out the way it has in the past. presidents approval dominates. this is a temporary bear market rally for democrats. the house, you can't really separate yourself. there'll be tens of millions of dollars republican ads attaching democratic house candidates to reasonably unpopular president, maybe it'll revert, but maybe it won't, you know, and anyway, but for now, at least we're seeing pretty unprecedented decoupling of presidential in generic. and i'm very dubious of all the conventional wisdom, even that some of these senators as safe as people think or house members? i don't know, we are utterly confident that it's inconceivable that voters in iowa will just decide 87 years old for a six year term is kind of a problem. and incidentally, for all that they, like grassley personally has been to every county 5000 times. you know, he is a vote for, i think at least nominally a vote for a legal national legislation to have very strict restrictions on abortion. i don't know quite what he's certainly pro life and i believe he's probably endorsed that at least nominally. and i don't know, is it crazy that, you know, you can, the state, uh, does have a democratic, has had democrats elected, you know, in modern times. i think grassley probably wins, but, you know, but a lot of these states that people are sort of very cavalier about dismissing people have over, i'll say one thing to students, to things to students, people have over learned a lesson, which is a true lesson of politics is nationalized. politics is polarized, demography is destiny. you can look at the presidential vote in the last couple of cycles to predict every house and senate race. and that has been more true in the last decade or two. that it was true when i first came to washington and there was a huge disconnect between presidential vote and senate and house vote in the olden days. that has gradually been removed because of a million different things going on in the country. economic, sociologically, economically, culturally, geographically, politically, the character of the party's nationalization of elections and media and everything else. these trends continue until they don't continue, right? i think people choose too quick to say, oh florida, that was 2020 republican, inconceivable that democrats would win an election, statewide election, in florida. like really in 2018, which was not ancient history, the democrats came within one point of winning two statewide, the governor and senate races in florida. so, i don't know what's going to happen there, but people are just too quick to assume that trends that have been, have gone in certain states that have moved red or blue in the last four or eight years or just like there forever? and that's why nevada could go the opposite way of where it's been and florida in my opinion, or states like that could go in the opposite direction. when you're in uncharted waters, some of these trends don't necessarily continue in the same direction and students should be, i think they should learn the history and learn the political science and the teaching stuff. and it's usually a pretty good guide until it's not a good guy. but this is any time, it's not gonna be a good guy, it's going to be this year final which just to look ahead of it. i mean, katherine's point about policy, but it's going to be such a crazy year. who knows what that looks like? let's say republicans in the house. and democrats in the senate. what does it look like when they have hearings on hunter biden and try to impeach joe biden. and mccarthy is looking over his shoulder, whatever trump is saying. if mccarthy's even speaker. all these other people who will have been elected or reelected, who are, you know, screaming and yelling that he has to advance this, what do they do? do they pass even nominally restriction on abortion? what does that do nationally? does that republican vote for that? i'm not so sure does the party start to fracture in all kinds of ways that it has in the past in the house? what does biden do biden ran for re election? what does trump do is he already does he announced in the next couple of weeks for reelection and there's so many variable and does trump get indicted. what's the popular reaction to that? it's not gonna be a normal, okay, we've been through this, you know, you lose the house or congress in your first off year and you cut a deal like obama did in 2011 with john boehner or clinton and gingrich did in 1995. and we kind of know what the next two years following the look like and it's interesting and important to work out and there will be a lot of politics as usual. and like katherine says, it's important to work out what the farm bill will look like and that matters who controls each house and the chair the chairs of the relevant committees are. but there could be such craziness and in both parties, especially the republican party? but a lot of uncertainty in the democratic party, especially if biden doesn't run again and all the kind of polarization and the legal investigations and post january 6th committee sort of developments. and liz cheney is a very unusual wildcard. so people should pay close attention but be very open minded, i guess, is the way i would put it about how things are going to play out. >> i think it's it's so important to bring that up because i always caution candidates when i'm talking to them. you lose when you look at when you're running the race and back at you not rather than the race in front of you. sure there's these indicators, there's these things that traditionally we've seen losses in midterms, you know, for the for the presidential party in power, but any one of those things would affect this race and in a unique way, the fact that all these are swirling around is unbelievable. that's why i'm going to go right to you, janet, there's nobody who has like seen it all firsthand during, you know, the trump white house as well and and follow that along as a journalist as somebody who's, you know, definitely covered, trump's impact when he was president? it's interesting in this midterm after post presidency. what impacts you having him love to hear your perspective and also how news is being disseminated? this cycle as well. so welcome, janet, it's good to see you. i can't hear you. >> what the news cycle will be. we know that people know what were -- what was happening in their communities and in their minds. anything that the media -- right before the election. i am going to watch, what is happening with the january 6 committee, where will they be before the election, will we have an investigation with the department of justice? so all these things we we should be watching closely and candidates should be prepared to to act upon them because honestly, they have to adjust to the new cycle as they see it coming. so, those are news will happen up until the last minute and we will react and voters do react to to what happens as we saw specifically. i'm thinking of hillary clinton and the emails and and everything that happened in the last election. so we know that the prettiest election, so we definitely need to watch. and i think one thing, if i if i had to say for journalists, one thing that we also pay attention to is the local races, because historically, we know that if we do have a link on session, as it seems that it will be for the next two years, local elections have real consequences and very consequential in what happens in the next two years in our country. so, local laws will happen. whoever gets elected and the legislatures will kind of shape those states for the next two years and for many, many years ahead, because those laws could have real, you know, consequences in the population there and then those people get elected to congress at a later time and so on and so forth. so definitely keeping a very, very close eye into what happens in the states. as we look at how that shapes the next two years of applause with our country and one race that i'm really interested in just because there is an anchor involved in the katie hubs in arizona, which is really wild. as you guys, know, i used to work in arizona. i was a colleague on kari lake. we didn't work at the same station, but seeing her now possibly would, could win the gubernatorial race in arizona would be really crazy in my mind, but really while it really possible, so that comes to show you that anything could happen in this upcoming elections. and we should be as bill said, very open minded that, that things are not going to be conventional, that things are just gonna switch and back and forth. we kind of can see the picture on the wall and how things may shape up. but i think we hold it until the last minute, just like we did with the trump election. >> here's a wild card that people are talking about. carrie lake loses by one point, let's just say in arizona and it's a little uncertain what election because they have a lot of of course their vote is very highly early and by mail. and so we're not sure that you don't know until does carry. like just accept that. does she not go on tv tuesday night and say it's being stolen? does she have no support for that in the arizona legislature? does she have no support for that among certain election officials in some of the counties in arizona and some of them refused to certify the degree of chaos we could have. and i say this with no pleasure because this would be very bad obviously for the country. but people focused and i focused a lot and i think a lot of people have focused on 2020 for and how do we fix the electoral college kind of, you know, problems and ways to build strengthen those guard rails against 2020 happening again from november 3rd to january 6th, so to speak. but in 2022 we could have this kind of thing happening now. i think ultimately, maybe, you know, governor ducey doesn't doesn't put up with it. and then the election secretary of state doesn't put up with it and so forth. but what if a republican has won? the secretary of state in the end and the incumbent secretary of state says no, but the person who just got elected says no, i think gary lakes right, we need to have about who knows what right? a new accounting and audits and fraud. it's i mean, i think i mentioned that this lake is so particularly extreme on this, but we could have much more chaos than we're used to. i say this with no pleasure, you know, on november nine and in the following weeks and even months after the election. >> that's one of the things about these republican candidates that i actually think democrats are ignoring to their detriment. these are largely unvetted candidates, usually in a normal republican process. republicans would bet each other and you find out what's wrong with them. you know all of dr oz problems, not in the general. that has not happened with a lot of these candidates because everyone was just vying for trump's attention. democrats should be looking at, i mean, it's a little late in the game to get enough, but i think there's going to be a lot of the unknowns of the surprises that are going to be right there in front of us that people never that republicans didn't go after. it has been the best example of doing that. i have to say it was negligent in not finding all these things in the fetterman campaign because they were spending millions of dollars. they were all trying to just say i'm more trump, i'm more trump who has been like a d horror movie person with selena is out there and in the extreme things she had said. so these candidates that are now being vetted in primetime general are going to make things much more uncertain. and i think the house races, the crowds are kind of ignoring that in many cases, assuming like, oh, somebody already checked that out and given that i'm from virginia where i didn't find, you know, the, remember the uh kkk and blackface picture until after the election to anybody out there. you know, if you're not doing your basic bread and butter stuff right now, shame on you because candidates that have come up in the trump world are totally unvetted. they're not just extreme and bad candidates. they are vetted personally and that is not good. >> i don't know if you had something to add, is this another place that you're in in consensus with with barbara here? >> yeah, and i want to let you i think there's two things, i in here too. mean, i think arizona is actually the state that i am going to pay in somewhat the most attention to in this cycle. you have the competitive senate race. i mean, mark kelly, there's so much money going in there to protect that seat. on the democratic side, you've got open seats on the house side, you've got the governor's race and the secretary of state and you have eggs exactly what bill said, which is election deniers. and you also have a native population, the navajo nation, they're delivered 12 to 13% of biden's vote in the presidential race. and that is going to be a place where people are going to try and discredit that vote. they're going to try and prevent that vote. and so that is going to play right into the election denier. so i think, you know, if this is, i don't even think it's one point, i think she'd go goes on if it is, if it's three or five points, she goes on and says it's all bs right. and she contests it just because it is so right there. i think barbra's absolutely right on the side that i wish that, you know more, we're doing opposition research in that bread and better way i am the person who's hugely skeptical about whether voters care about that anymore, we've lived through two impeachments. we've lived through multiple impeachments all the way back to the clinton era, we've lived through fraud, financial fraud. we've lived through, you know, we've lived through so much from a personal foible perspective that i do, i do question or ask the question about whether american voters really just like, sure you're gonna tell me that and i'm gonna tell you he's a nice guy or sure you're gonna tell me that, but i'm gonna tell you, i go to church with her. so, you know, i wish they were doing it. um, and i think it does take something like finding a candidate in blackface to to break through that, which is unfortunate. letterman's doing that basic stuff. yeah, but he's a trump person. he's just saying he's odd, he's kooky stuff and he owns 12 houses. >> i certainly think that i just, you know, there's some question in my mind, but i think, you know, this is, as bill said, this is unprecedented. everybody should be doing, you know, the committees and the voters and students should be doing everything they can to sort of organize and get involved because this is, wow. >> i just wanted to add to that point that this is where i think local journalism is so important in this day and age because yes, well, people may not be swayed or persuaded as much anymore. i think it's up to those local reporters to do that digging, opposition research, but to really go after those unvetted candidates to really do the homework to put it in front of the readers and for the readers to decide right, but you have to be able to get them in the press. and yes, there's a lot of people that are not being vetted and there is a lot of suffering right now with local newspapers and local stations not having the resources to do this. but it's in i think if one advice for the students would be, is to go and read your local newspaper every day and really get to know those candidates and have your local reporters go after them and press your your local tv stations to do more in terms of doing that vetting if nobody else's. >> it's interesting because i think so many candidates are probably looking for ways to localize the race. either they're a democrat and don't want to necessarily follow some of the biden numbers or there's concerns there. i think the liz cheney race is a good example of a nationalized race and i looked on websites did research there. i didn't see, you know, her opponent talking that much about what she's gonna do for wyoming or those wyoming issues. it was such a nationalized race. i will one of our our students had a question. i'll go to you on this because it's something you brought up about whether or not the dems are, looking better, you know, in the senate's right now. he wants to know if they are looking better, you know, in the first democratic senate candidates, how and will this translate to house races? and on the local races janet as you mentioned, it's it's a good question. >> i mean very briefly, just on the point you made which is reporting. i think we all talk about what's caused the current moment, you know, and there are a million different things, as i say, sociological, cultural media, social media, but i do think the decline of the local dress which is mostly an economically driven thing. but it has to do with obviously the internet and the fact that people don't need it the way they used to has really had a big effect on our politics and it is underrated. there's a million things that you could talk about that have had a big effect and they all have, you know, it's like you cannot disentangle them. they all happened at the same time, but the decline of the local press now, there are local websites, i mean it was a local, i'm not mistaken, it was a web, it was a website, reporter, writer in florida who wrote the news about the trump about the search. i mean about the fbi search of trump. it wasn't, you know, the new york times, it wasn't a p. and it wasn't even the miami paper and so forth. so anyway, it's it's very important i mean, people need to point. do their own research locally and there are places to do that. i mean, generally what a political scientist, which i would say about the question is, senate races can separate themselves from a national trend. barbara sort of alluded to this earlier in a way that house races can't i mean, people just don't know house race, especially as an open seat. they don't know a challenger in the house race. they don't have the money to advertise if it's near a big city and they have to buy the whole media thing. there has changed a little bit of digital, but not totally. uh and if the senators incumbent, they probably know him, he's been there six years, you know, being having press conferences about how he's delivering infrastructure for that state. even if he voted against the bill and they see him the house person just has a much tougher time. getting, you know, gets a little bit swamped by the national and statewide news and trends. so typically, and this is historically true in 2010 when there was a massive wave, it swept the house, uh, from democratic to republican and a massive number of seats. but the democrats held held on in the senate. partly because senators can distinguish themselves more from their states. it really is more nationalized and polarized. that has been true in the senate. i think 26 states had senators. half the states had democratic delegations and half had republican. now i think the numbers are 44 states have senators from one party. only six states have one of each. what that does to our politics, it just changes the whole flavor of what politics is like and what politics is like in the united states senate. the polarization has had a fundamental effect on our politics. it has trended that way in senate races. could beck change a little bit this cycle? i kind of think it could little bit. the senate has gotten more like the house with election results over the last 20 or 30 years. >> i appreciate that perspective. going to go to another student question. but i'm going to direct this question at first and would love other people's comments to catherine. you have served on the board of the national abortion rights action league. what happened with roe and the supreme court. but then what happened with the vote in kansas? right, i mean, you see this, you know, that had a big, what are these both going to have as an impact. what is the impact and what you see especially with your experience working with an organization that's dedicated to looking at a state-by-state? >> yeah, i mean, i hate to say it, but we told people this was gonna happen for 30 years in every election cycle. we said the at gabriel and emily's list and planned parenthood, listen like this is the supreme court's on the line and when the supreme court goes, so does roe v. wade. i mean the chicken was the sky was falling, we told everybody and nobody believed us. i truly don't think people believed us until the decision was leaked. i have seen more money flowing into third party groups and independent expenditures on both sides, probably than never before. i believe kansas is a harbinger only for the fact that we're about to have 50 state laws um and 50 different state policies. there's no national momentum for, especially even with even if we retain that, even if democrats retain the senate and it's a narrow, a much more narrow majority in the house, there's this is a 50 year strategy. we're back to rebuilding this from a federal level level. and so there's a lot of work being done to figure out the eyes for -- that ties for republican candidates right now, two different aspects of different personal aspects, business foibles missteps, all that kind of stuff. and also tying that to their votes on abortion rates in this country. i just think that kansas was a great example of community based organizing, community based. i mean it was so under the radar, if people, if any political prognosticator had said that that was going to turn out that way, i would have just said you have no idea. because it was under the radar, it was locally driven. it probably means that we have 50 state policies, um 50 state ballot initiatives and we are going to have this fight now um to protect the lives and health of women around this country for another 50 years. i do think that the plus side for kansas, especially for democrats in this world is local organizing, local community, empowering local organizations, works. you don't have to run this from a suite in washington dc. turn the money over to the states, turn the money over to the people who know the community's turn the money over to the people who have the faith and trust of their next door neighbor and will be listened to. and maybe that helps turn the tide because that's what worked in kansas. >> anybody else on the those issues? one of the issues that i think strategically, people want to is is there evidence or enough evidence that trump backed candidates are turning off more moderate republicans? i don't know if we've seen anything anybody reporting on that. are these candidates that making it through the primary, do they win in a general election with more moderate republicans and independents? >> i think that's the problem why you're seeing the problem in the senate with those key races? doug ducey running in the senate against mark kelly, i think it would be far more competitive and probably advantage republicans. rob portman would've been sailing to re election and, you know, or a portman like candidate. so, i think the evidence is very, very much in the senate races. i think with the redistricting, a lot of the states that some of the seats that may have been closer before aren't as close as they were, but, and i think maybe with kansas as an example as others, you know, when you have too extreme, you can go right off the cliff, you know, you can be, well, i can be with glenn youngkin is my friend. i voted for him. i'm not voting for election deniers, so, you know, so in virginia, who replaced denver reblooming? i think for a lot of republicans, i think you see that evidence in the know, unfortunately, that district got a little bit more republican, so it's not a problem for bob good, but the quality that's gonna make next year, you're gonna have a lot more marjorie, greene's a lot more crazy people, you know, like miller from illinois, beat out rocky, um, rodney davis, sensible, pretty mainstream guy. so we got a kook instead, you know, we got downgrades and a lot of these seats. but that means when you're the republican leadership and you need to have a budget passed, you need to have something done, you can't shut down the government all the time. you have nobody to go to anymore. and then if, say you have, like an elise stefanik who's already running for vice president, you know, with trump, she's gonna have to say no to everything. so then you're going to get nothing done in the house and have all these extreme, when we were there, the freedom caucus is dominated, you're going to have more of those types there. i mean, if donald trump calls up harriet hagman and says, hey, mike lindell here, and he wants to have a hearing on this, you know, they're going to have to go get in the clown car with mike lindell in trump. a real problem to manage in a caucus. >>'s democracy on the ballot? this is the first election after, you know, the the attack on the capitol on january six. >> i would think so, and the more we talk about january 6th closer to the elections and the more development there is, and like i said, if the department of justice gets involved, i think that would definitely play a major role in in the elections for sure, and people will vote, like we've seen it, we've seen it, we saw it in the primaries where january 6th was a talking point for the media for the candidates, for the voters, and they definitely went to the ballots thinking about january 6th and how those candidates thought are reacting to it, and i also want to take it back and kind of flip the moderate democrats and how they many and and this is happening. i've seen it happen along the us border with many districts. they're having turned um turning republican and those moderate or liberal democrats who would have easily won those races are now having to turn more moderate democrats and more right winning to be able to stay to stay in the race. i'm thinking of representative gonzalez, for example, who even had to switch districts because he knew that he could no longer hold his district and the previous district that he had. so he's running another district altogether trying to survive there. so it's not only the republicans, crazy republicans turning off moderate republicans, but also liberal democrats going to the right to be able to survive the midterm elections. and really knowing that if they don't do that, the their, you know, their lives and and their house seats are at stake. well, >> well, it's interesting too, because you bring up this is a redistricting, you know, election as well. we have members running against members in certain districts there, there's been an influence about how are they these being drawn that will affect the long term. what are see there? >> i think the consensus is that the district registering solidified republican democratic districts as opposed to throwing more up in the air, which has not always been the case. we'll see what new york has a kind of colorful race with to a long term incumbent democrats next week. some of them got knocked off and some of them are in tougher races because the districts isn't entirely people who voted for. the reason a change, redistricting changes the partisan leans of different districts and be people sort of forget this. incumbents sometimes have to run in districts where they only had half of before two thirds, one third, and then a lot of the voters aren't their voters, so to speak and voted for them before and they lose the advantage of incumbency for the new voters, so to speak. and this is happening to me, i'm not in the same district, i was before the redistricting. you know, this kind and this is a big challenge for allison spanberger, let's abigail spanberger here in virginia democrat who is running in a district where 80% of her voters aren't people who voted for before, so she has to spend a lot of money reintroducing herself, which normally if you're an incumbent you'd spend just kind of taking credit for things and then attacking your extreme opponents. i think on the whole, people are a little too obsessed with gerrymandering and redistricting. i'm not happy about gerrymandering would prefer neutral commissions and so forth. but it doesn't explain quite as much of the changes in our politics as you would think, since the senate hasn't been gerrymandering in 60 years and it hasn't changed the state lines have not changed. so a lot of it is d deeper socio economic things and media nationalization polarization and so forth. >> well, it's interesting, i did not think of it from the senate perspective. we talked to congressman will hurd. his point was we are solidifying these d. n. r. districts, there's less competitive districts and this is why we're getting these challenges, you know, in elections, whether it is vote turnout, whether it's the candidates that are coming through the primary, but what do you, i can't even remember the number of competitive districts we had when we were there. you know. what are your thoughts on that? i think he was pretty serious about this is why we are where we are because there is not just as much competition. >> on the house side, we're looking at a playing field that's really fighting over about 25 seats. it is pretty precarious. if you look at some of the models from last month, you know, the prediction of 230 republican seats after election day 2, 205 democrats were gonna, you know, the idea that we would lose that many seats and it's all playing out in those 2025 maybe 30 districts and all playing out with, you know, localized agendas, localized pieces, some national stuff, i definitely think, you know, there's some question, but you know, i don't, i mean this is really a question for, you know, janet and barbara and bill like that the intensity of the trump vote is what's so scary, right? we all think maybe they're a little nutty or we wish there was a different thing, but like my family are believers. they are in a red district. >> it's overemphasized because because they scream louder. it's probably 20%, which means it's a big part of the republican party. if you're 20% of the country who believes this stuff, the nuts, you know, a big cancer on the republican party. they are voting no matter what. so the idea that whatever new happens between now and november changes that they're voting, i think the unknowns are what happens to get the democrat vote are coming out and what candidates out there are genuinely good candidates. >> i tend to be a pessimist and think that we are actually a country like sort of governed by the tyranny of the vocal minority, not the silent majority. the suppression of voters whether, you know, direct the idea that, you know, people our -- are disenchanted, so they do not vote. i definitely think that we probably provide too much over emphasis to these super loud, but at the same time they are on both sides. the people that heavily invested on the left will come out and, on the hot side too. we have 25, 30 seats that we're gonna play in on the house side. both parties pretty dramatically and the intensity by which we play and what that does in terms of our people mobilized? >> the news cycles in the next 82 days. when you're in these 82 days -- going back to 2016. i opposed donald trump. i assumed he would lose and i would lose. what changed was instead of the news cycle every day being when thank you jim comey, he comes out and with hillary clinton stuff at the end of october um, that changed the new cycle. hillary blames the fbi for losing. donald trump blames the fbi for losing. i think they are both wrong. i think they are both lousy candidates and they just happened to lose. but when you're in these very precarious situations with kind of a lot of bad candidates, i guess this cycle for the next 82 days, is more precarious for republicans than it is for democrats. it is going to be harder for republicans and swing seats than democrats. >> i think that is right. politics and history is very more contingent than people think and more path dependent if you want to use a social science term. i do think actually hillary ran a primary campaign, but probably wins without jim comey. jim comey makes a slightly random decision that he has to make this letter public in october 28 because he got attacked for, you know, making other things, doing other things and i agree with barbara the underlying and should have been had by eight points, so it shouldn't have mattered. but still it did matter in the real world. it was a very big deal that that the republicans picked up 12 how seats in 2020. people like me were wanted to say, trump's disaster, trump's disaster. you got trump at the top of the ticket, you're finished, you cannot win anything. they eventually lose georgia, but on election night they are up in the senate. it was very hard afterwards for people like me to make the case, honestly, and it would have been honest to say trump has just destroyed the republican party, really. and they've recruited even more women and minorities. it's a big mistake for anti trump people to say inevitably it is all going to fail. i think ultimately, i do think republicans will get punished this year for various things and democrats will outperform the traditional midyear election. if republicans had not lost 10 seats, which is totally than what people expected. everyone ridiculed trump for saying we're gonna win the house gained house seats and whatever, he did not quite when it but they came close. if republicans lose 10 house seats in 2020 and lose a couple of these senate seats, they thought were in play that they end up that ended up reverting at the end. i think the effect of january six is totally different. i don't think kevin mccarthy, i don't think they rallied it. they did not think republicans in the house do not think donald trump is a disaster for them. kevin mccarthy is 3 to 1 odds to become speaker of the house in 2022. and they're probably going to reelect republican governors will become more and more trumpy and much trumpy er, than their predecessors. one of the biggest things students i think people really need to think hard about is, i mean, i hope there's a political price to be paid. until there's a much more evident political price to be paid for being a trumpy republican and it's t just in rather few swing districts, but it is across the nation. i think very hard to change the party now. i think maybe pennsylvania and ohio and wisconsin and michigan this year will make a big difference. and that will be an interesting question. does it affect the presidential, you know, raises in 23 4 doesn't really strengthen those on the republican side, who said we can't do trump again? it is an underreported fact that republicans felt ok about their own party in 2021. half of them work happy to get rid of trump. i think this was kippered's point -- katherine's point. >> well, listen, we i'm cognizant of time to hear, i we've covered policy, we've covered politics. am going to go to predictions. i would love to ask for all of you and i'll start with you janet, like, can you envision, what does, what does the congress look like after november 8 jack --? what is going to happen at the start of a major presidential election in 2024? >> i think we've all failed at that recently. i will regroup after november 8. i think the house goes to republicans, the senate holds. >> let's go to you next barbara. >> i think the senate stays democrat, down two or three. those will be trump candidates. how those swing seats are determined may be impacted by some of these bad senate candidates. that could have an impact then how things are going forward. one of the leadership races will be tom amber. he is very popular. he is a more collegial person and less, more practical. elise stefanik now announcing that she is going to run. who wins the race could determine if there's any success at all in the house. >> catherine? i think you are muted. why don't we go to build. -- bill. >> i'll just revert to my original point, i think surprising things will happen and it will be more chaotic than we expect. are we confident that trump doesn't try to depose him with stefanik or somebody else? are we confident that i assume if they lose the house speaker, pelosi steps down as leader and probably just resigns from the house, maybe not if it's really close, but she thinks she could really affect things, but maybe she does. i guess we think hakeem jeffries is next in line, but we're not certain we don't know about that. does mcconnell stay incidentally as minority leader for another maybe he does. i just think the degree of and and right away the question becomes both trump assuming he's running. how strong is he? and does biden run again? which imes kept to bilbao. -- which i am skeptical about. i don't think harris is a lay down to be the nominee as well. >> i keep my money in mitch mcconnell. >> ok. i am writing all these down. >> i think the senate stays in democratic hands, the house is in republican hands, but much more narrowly than many are predicting. we see probably 4 to 5 high profile recount election four or five high profile, not decided on election night races. it will make the landscape of the 2024 election even mourn president did. i also do not think that harris is issuing. -- a shoe in. >> so many factors to determine that. >> to finish it out, what is your advice to all the students on here? there is so much at stake. there is so much going on. there's so many factors. what would you advise them? >> i think regardless of party get involved with candidates that you believe in. people who are principled and that you want to work with. particularly in these 50-50 districts. you can really make a difference in do not be did scourged. -- discouraged. if you are up in pennsylvania, jumped in and there are a lot of races to play in there. you can make a big difference in arizona. engaging in those races and getting election deniers. we can all agree on that. >> like i said, read your local paper, stay on top of your local issues. make sure you read the you know the national news and cnn and the washington post of the world, but really stay on top of your local issues because those will dominate your lives and will have real impact on on your house and households in in the next few years. >> go work on a campaign. i try not to hire anybody who hasn't worked on a political >> zones really matter in the next two years so make sure put in an effort. on cnn and washington was the world stay of those because those will dominate your lives and will have a effect on your house and tells for the next few years for sure. >> some people are dropping off, and we are able to answer some of the questions from our students. i can't thank you enough for your time, you are all incredibly busy people, but the impact that you have made, what you have done so far would be enough. janet, you serve on our advisory board. so i think you for that. you are always welcome on this campus. we will ask you again and again to bring your voices to this conversation. we always well. and we will get together may be afterward with that piece of paper with those predictions. i'm sure there will be a lot of discussions about this election. elections have consequences. these are not just competitions for competition sake. they have ramifications. government is about consensus. we would like to bring you back and talk about what is the new landscape and how will we navigate that as a country. i appreciate you, i look forward to talking to all of you between now and electric day. -- election day. to my students coming back to campus, we are happy to have you here. certainly, you can't get enough advice from these individuals about how you can have an impact. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> nobody really thought that this would happen, that paris would succumb to the nazis. it was unthinkable that it would happen. you have the city of light, that is supposed to be the bastion of enlightenment and freethinking. an open society. not just when they got into poland, in warsaw, there were asked executions. they executed liberals and freethinkers. everyone was scared as they came toward paris of what would happen in paris as well. >> germany's four-year brutal occupation of paris and its liberation by american and french forces in 1944. listen to q&a on our new c-span now at -- at -- app. >> c-span has the unfiltered coverage of the u.s. response to the u.s. -- to the russian invention -- in -- russian invasion of ukraine. all on the c-span network, the c-span now free mobile app a
comstock, bill kristol and pundits catherine miller and janet rodriguez. this is hosted by the sign institute. it is about one hour and 15 minutes. >> i am honored and so thrilled to be joined by some of our great collaborators we have had. today, joining us is bill kristol who is a political analyst and founder of the weekly standard. we also have with us barbara comstock. and janet rodriguez who is the head of internal communications and a former white house correspondent. differing opinions and perspectives, the common thread that i think is merely the most important for all of you is science to develop. i am so appreciative of you joining us again. you are so well-liked and respected on campus. it is great to have you with us today. we are at the precipice of another midterm election. we have 14 democratic seats up, 21 seats that are republican that are a. 32 of the three proceeds were up in 2016. it is amazing how this is the class of the senate we are looking at and what will be the control of that narrow margin. the u.s. house is going to be a big topic of conversation today as all the seats are up and several of them are targeted. the primaries have really pushed what kind of election we are looking at in the gubernatorial races. and in 46 states are up. all of these individuals voting soon to determine what our leadership structure is. we want to hear your perspectives. i want to encourage anybody who is joining us today to ask questions throughout. we are not waiting until the end. if you have questions specifically as the conversation is going. to my colleagues, this is a conversation. we will ask questions and if you want to have follow-ups between individuals and peers, let's talk this through. i guess the first thing i would like to do is give you a few minutes to get a general perspective of what you are paying attention to. we would love to start with you, barbara. thing i would like to do is give you a few minutes to get a general perspective of what you are paying attention to. we would love to start with you, barbara. as somebody who has been in the seat, and many members who are up for reelection, what are you thinking? what are you focused on? >> we know the majority -- majorities are made in swing states. while the focus has largely been on primaries to date -- republicans trump vengeance or trump trying to pick extreme election deniers, we now move into the fall where being a trump extremist is less valuable. particularly in these swing states. as i look at it, you can get a primary but if you are christine o'donnell or richard murdoch or todd akin, republicans who lost in republican states. winning the nomination did not make them a senator. we already have candidates like dr. oz who has been failing spectacularly. he is a trump-endorsed first-time candidate, not even living in pennsylvania. john fetterman, his liberal opponent has trolled him excessively for not being pennsylvanian. so he is failing in the polls, he is failing in money. blake masters in arizona and j.d. vance are both candidates that peter thiel, a trump millionaire, decided he wants to buy. these are two he has brought in -- retail candidates. mcmaster is double digits down. very extreme candidate -- talk about that and i think mark kelly is sitting on the kind of money he is, a lot happier these days. although the whole ticket in arizona is an election denying ticket, which i oppose. j.d. vance. tim robbins doing much better than expected. herschel walker. donald trump, who lost, the gift that keeps on giving for georgia democrats. rachel record now about his former wife -- [indiscernible] -- a terrible candidate. on the state front, brad raffensperger and governor kemp. there's four seats there that are not looking great. [no audio] [please stand by] >> people were talking about the huge red blowout. the instead of having the number one issue being the economy, ratings, inflation, gas prices, education concerns, trump back in the front seat driving the car for assembly republicans, and if you're in a swing state, that is a nightmare. state when trump was in power and it didn't matter what your numbers were. trump's numbers. after the 2018 election but whatever trump's negative numbers were -- what the democrats got. almost to a tee. >> right. >> that was the gift that keeps on giving. the policies are doing better, you have seen democrat candidates outrun biden's numbers largely because of this reappearance of trump. the fact that while trump's problems are increasing -- liz cheney -- vengeance tour -- increasing legal problems. [indiscernible] trump does very poorly in court where truth and facts matter. he is now entering the factual, legal portion of his problems. today, he had guilty pleas from his lawyer. i expect see indictments, lawyers and people coming soon and perhaps even for trump himself. that is going to have an impact in swing districts. much more so than the senate -- todd young in indiana. he's out running around talking about trump -- chips act, infrastructure bill, compromise. [indiscernible] he is a great republican candidate. for a house republican [indiscernible] [indiscernible] -- everything stupid trump does. if the democrats are not totally asleep, that is going to be wrapped around your neck. because that is how house republicans play. cheney is going to be opposing election deniers. and then you have abortion looming, particularly in michigan. i do not think the gubernatorial candidate will do well. peter meyer, if the democrats are not totally asleep committee should be able to take him out. other candidates like that who won these swing districts are going to be big money sucks. -- because they have less money because donald trump is sucking all the money. you heard how he -- all this money, that is money that is not going to republican candidates. people protesting in mar-a-lago are not getting a single vote in a swing district. -- reappearing at this time is -- both financially and though twice to the -- house as well as the senate. >> as always, you gave a really great overview. i have to say, if you look at past lives, we've got a battle amongst research directors. you led the research team for president bush's campaign in 2000. i first met catherine miller, and everyone knows her so well for her work in food policy and everything she has done, but she also wore the head of research director at the d triple c where editor -- where i met her. we are going to have you go next and give you an overview. >> i don't have much to disagree with. [laughter] >> we are already building consensus. >> jokingly, i say we should all be eating crudites and not with sulci. the ability for democrats to capitalize on some of foibles of the republican party and the missteps, the personal problems, the challenges and the ties to an extremist arm that sometimes does not believe the world is round. it is, i think, going to pay dividends. that's to say on the senate side, we are always looking at voter protection efforts. i also designed the voter protection efforts for dccc for several cycles. we will look at policy conversations and think it is going well. and there are always efforts to prevent people from voting legitimately. we saw the strengths of the indigenous population in alaska, a democrat made that runoff. that was largely on the strength of a native population. we can look optimistically at the changing momentum for democrats, but we have to keep a strong eye, especially in those roles based on native and indigenous population voter suppression efforts and make sure that is a priority at the committee right now. and at the white house. on the house side, a little more pessimistic. going all the way back precolonial, all politics is local. i look at some of these places i cannot imagine voting for some of these candidates. yet, it is happening. i am from rural north florida. republicans in the first district invited -- to speak at the high school like, come, talk to us. why would you bring this into a high school? i think the thing that i watched as a policy person, especially related to food and as we move into farm bill season where we're going to write the largest piece of legislation that employs farmers and feeds americans who controls the house and senate agriculture committees. there's no bigger question right now in my mind. and so i'm looking at places like georgia. i'm looking at places like michigan. i'm looking at places like arizona. mark kelly, the senate race and the house races there. i'm looking to see what happens. chuck grassley is gonna hang on, you know, with dear life to that senate seat. but you know what iowa and the redistricting in iowa means for the houses house races there. i think the next 82 days are going to be really interesting. we always say that, but there's a lot at play here and it is national momentum related to issues. the challenge is localized efforts and then we're really gonna have to pay attention to voter suppression and voter protection efforts across the country. and then we should all be voting on the issues that we care about. and we see this with, you know, abortion taking a front row on the supreme court. they're really motivated. a lot of voters on the democratic side and on the republican side. so issues are going to take a play in this in this election cycle, but wow, it's going to be a ride. >> yeah. and i think in a great way, katherine, you bring up elections have consequences. right? so many of the decisions that we're making in november affect decisions that will be happening at the beginning of the year around policy. i'm gonna go to you now, bill, because i think when i started this job, if any of my democratic friends knew that one of my favorite things is to go have coffee with you at compass coffee, they'd be shocked. but it is. and i've learned a lot from you. so i really want to know your perspective. you've been writing certainly a lot about the elections and what you're seeing, but you've also a veteran of these campaigns and looking from different perspectives. what are you seeing and what is really standing out to you? >> well, thanks, amy. and it's good to be with everyone and i enjoy the coffees too. i myself have always been more open minded and therefore happy to have coffee with sensible democrats. but that's okay. i'm sure it does shock some people. i guess i just pick up maybe on really what katherine sort of implied, but didn't quite say, which is we are really in uncharted waters. and one reason, i think incidentally everyone's like, oh, it was very surprising what's happening in the generic congressional poll because it's so different from biden. well, yeah, but you know, this is not 2010, it's not 2014, it's not 1994. we have had the trump presidency, which was unprecedented in many ways. and i'm not even making a judgment here. i'm just saying analytically empirically, we've not quite gone through this before. two impeachments, never been in politics before, becomes president. everything that happened, of course, we've had a post presidency that's unprecedented with him wanting to stay ahead of the party, staying ahead of the party. being investigated by the fbi, being impeached, but not convicted. the very, very end of his presidency, january 6. i will stress is unprecedented. and the after effects of that very unpredictable. and i'd say the after effects unprecedented in the sense that many of us expected. well, that might be the moment. and finally, the party liberates from trump. and in a sense, we get back to a more normal situation and that didn't happen, which is kind of, we now take that for granted, but it's really if you step back and think, well, what we would have all said on january 7th, it's pretty astonishing. so it's a very astonishing and unpredictable moment. and then roe v wade, a 49 year old precedent that everyone thinks of it originally and so forth, overturned on a purely partisan. let's call it a decision that's handed down by judges entirely appointed by presidents of one party. that was not the case, of course. originally with roe v. wade. 5-4 decision, 6-3 on the judgment because roberts would have sustained the upheld the mississippi law, but would not have overturned roe nationally. so 5-4 on that, three of the five being appointed by trump, one of the most controversial presidents in our history. we have not had this experience. there is zero historical precedent for this. we've had the court be controversial. obviously, in fact, brown was extremely controversial. roe was controversial. republicans ran against the war in court and with some success in the sixties and seventies. but we have just not had an election season where this has been central and it really is an issue. it's not just symbolically interesting. i mean, actual governors are gonna make a difference in michigan and wisconsin and elsewhere as to what the actual laws on the subject that's actual importance to a lot of americans. it's gonna be, you know, so it's not like people, i remember talking to my friends, many of them old friends, pro life friends very much minimizing the alito draft opinion came out in the spring. oh, well, you know what? never, everyone always says it's gonna be a big political issue. there's diehards, especially in the pro life side, it never really matters. it's not gonna affect, just gonna lance the boil, it's gonna settle down. i mean, it could have happened, it could still happen incidentally, four years from now. we could look back and say, well, settle down, we have different laws in different states and so forth. no federal legislation perhaps, but for now it's the boil, it's alive and political issue. and again, so you put all this together and we don't know, i mean, honestly, we don't know, i will say i was early in saying that the fact that biden was unpopular did not necessarily mean there would be a huge republican wave. i've been through these races as we all have, where there is a popular popularity, the president does drive things. and you could argue that that's even more the case with the nationalizing of elections. on the other hand, certainly, senate races can separate and voters are also capable of saying, i'm not crazy about biden. but let's look at the two parties that are competing for control of the senate and the house or what their agendas are and what their leadership is and trump is now as part of a sort of suggested as much on the ballot, at least for now, i'd say is biden. i mean, you know, neither is on the ballot, but therefore let's say figuratively on the ballot. i think i was early and just looking and seeing in the polls that the congressional, the generic congressional ballot that for people who aren't following the stuff obsessively is, you know, opposed to simply ask a national poll. usually who would you prefer controls congress in the next session and the republicans or democrats and that's been pretty close. and the republicans were ahead by three points or so. now democrats have probably a tiny bit ahead, biden managed to sink from -8 to -15 and this year in 2022. i just looked this up the other day and the generic ballot has gone in the other direction by a couple of points. so all the conventional now, maybe it will ultimately work out the way it has in the past. presidents approval dominates. this is a temporary bear market rally for democrats. the house, you can't really separate yourself. there'll be tens of millions of dollars republican ads attaching democratic house candidates to reasonably unpopular president, maybe it'll revert, but maybe it won't, you know, and anyway, but for now, at least we're seeing pretty unprecedented decoupling of presidential in generic. and i'm very dubious of all the conventional wisdom, even that some of these senators as safe as people think or house members? i don't know, we are utterly confident that it's inconceivable that voters in iowa will just decide 87 years old for a six year term is kind of a problem. and incidentally, for all that they, like grassley personally has been to every county 5000 times. you know, he is a vote for, i think at least nominally a vote for a legal national legislation to have very strict restrictions on abortion. i don't know quite what he's certainly pro life and i believe he's probably endorsed that at least nominally. and i don't know, is it crazy that, you know, you can, the state, uh, does have a democratic, has had democrats elected, you know, in modern times. i think grassley probably wins, but, you know, but a lot of these states that people are sort of very cavalier about dismissing people have over, i'll say one thing to students, to things to students, people have over learned a lesson, which is a true lesson of politics is nationalized. politics is polarized, demography is destiny. you can look at the presidential vote in the last couple of cycles to predict every house and senate race. and that has been more true in the last decade or two. that it was true when i first came to washington and there was a huge disconnect between presidential vote and senate and house vote in the olden days. that has gradually been removed because of a million different things going on in the country. economic, sociologically, economically, culturally, geographically, politically, the character of the party's nationalization of elections and media and everything else. these trends continue until they don't continue, right? i think people choose too quick to say, oh florida, that was 2020 republican, inconceivable that democrats would win an election, statewide election, in florida. like really in 2018, which was not ancient history, the democrats came within one point of winning two statewide, the governor and senate races in florida. so, i don't know what's going to happen there, but people are just too quick to assume that trends that have been, have gone in certain states that have moved red or blue in the last four or eight years or just like there forever? and that's why nevada could go the opposite way of where it's been and florida in my opinion, or states like that could go in the opposite direction. when you're in uncharted waters, some of these trends don't necessarily continue in the same direction and students should be, i think they should learn the history and learn the political science and the teaching stuff. and it's usually a pretty good guide until it's not a good guy. but this is any time, it's not gonna be a good guy, it's going to be this year final which just to look ahead of it. i mean, katherine's point about policy, but it's going to be such a crazy year. who knows what that looks like? let's say republicans in the house. and democrats in the senate. what does it look like when they have hearings on hunter biden and try to impeach joe biden. and mccarthy is looking over his shoulder, whatever trump is saying. if mccarthy's even speaker. all these other people who will have been elected or reelected, who are, you know, screaming and yelling that he has to advance this, what do they do? do they pass even nominally restriction on abortion? what does that do nationally? does that republican vote for that? i'm not so sure does the party start to fracture in all kinds of ways that it has in the past in the house? what does biden do biden ran for re election? what does trump do is he already does he announced in the next couple of weeks for reelection and there's so many variable and does trump get indicted. what's the popular reaction to that? it's not gonna be a normal, okay, we've been through this, you know, you lose the house or congress in your first off year and you cut a deal like obama did in 2011 with john boehner or clinton and gingrich did in 1995. and we kind of know what the next two years following the look like and it's interesting and important to work out and there will be a lot of politics as usual. and like katherine says, it's important to work out what the farm bill will look like and that matters who controls each house and the chair the chairs of the relevant committees are. but there could be such craziness and in both parties, especially the republican party? but a lot of uncertainty in the democratic party, especially if biden doesn't run again and all the kind of polarization and the legal investigations and post january 6th committee sort of developments. and liz cheney is a very unusual wildcard. so people should pay close attention but be very open minded, i guess, is the way i would put it about how things are going to play out. >> i think it's it's so important to bring that up because i always caution candidates when i'm talking to them. you lose when you look at when you're running the race and back at you not rather than the race in front of you. sure there's these indicators, there's these things that traditionally we've seen losses in midterms, you know, for the for the presidential party in power, but any one of those things would affect this race and in a unique way, the fact that all these are swirling around is unbelievable. that's why i'm going to go right to you, janet, there's nobody who has like seen it all firsthand during, you know, the trump white house as well and and follow that along as a journalist as somebody who's, you know, definitely covered, trump's impact when he was president? it's interesting in this midterm after post presidency. what impacts you having him love to hear your perspective and also how news is being disseminated? this cycle as well. so welcome, janet, it's good to see you. i can't hear you. so i am wat'g to happen with the january 6th committee and how is that gonna be? where are they going to be right before the elections? are we going to have any news from the department of justice? are we going to have any more investigations? we were talking about all the legal troubles that trump may may incur in the future. and how soon is that future? so all these things we we should be watching closely and candidates should be prepared to to act upon them because honestly, they have to adjust to the new cycle as they see it coming. so, those are news will happen up until the last minute and we will react and voters do react to to what happens as we saw specifically. i'm thinking of hillary clinton and the emails and and everything that happened in the last election. so we know that the prettiest election, so we definitely need to watch. and i think one thing, if i if i had to say for journalists, one thing that we also pay attention to is the local races, because historically, we know that if we do have a link on session, as it seems that it will be for the next two years, local elections have real consequences and very consequential in what happens in the next two years in our country. so, local laws will happen. whoever gets elected and the legislatures will kind of shape those states for the next two years and for many, many years ahead, because those laws could have real, you know, consequences in the population there and then those people get elected to congress at a later time and so on and so forth. so definitely keeping a very, very close eye into what happens in the states. as we look at how that shapes the next two years of applause with our country and one race that i'm really interested in just because there is an anchor involved in the katie hubs in arizona, which is really wild. as you guys, know, i used to work in arizona. i was a colleague on kari lake. we didn't work at the same station, but seeing her now possibly would, could win the gubernatorial race in arizona would be really crazy in my mind, but really while it really possible, so that comes to show you that anything could happen in this upcoming elections. and we should be as bill said, very open minded that, that things are not going to be conventional, that things are just gonna switch and back and forth. we kind of can see the picture on the wall and how things may shape up. but i think we hold it until the last minute, just like we did with the trump election. >> here's a wild card that people are talking about. carrie lake loses by one point, let's just say in arizona and it's a little uncertain what election because they have a lot of of course their vote is very highly early and by mail. and so we're not sure that you don't know until does carry. like just accept that. does she not go on tv tuesday night and say it's being stolen? does she have no support for that in the arizona legislature? does she have no support for that among certain election officials in some of the counties in arizona and some of them refused to certify the degree of chaos we could have. and i say this with no pleasure because this would be very bad obviously for the country. but people focused and i focused a lot and i think a lot of people have focused on 2020 for and how do we fix the electoral college kind of, you know, problems and ways to build strengthen those guard rails against 2020 happening again from november 3rd to january 6th, so to speak. but in 2022 we could have this kind of thing happening now. i think ultimately, maybe, you know, governor ducey doesn't doesn't put up with it. and then the election secretary of state doesn't put up with it and so forth. but what if a republican has won? the secretary of state in the end and the incumbent secretary of state says no, but the person who just got elected says no, i think gary lakes right, we need to have about who knows what right? a new accounting and audits and fraud. it's i mean, i think i mentioned that this lake is so particularly extreme on this, but we could have much more chaos than we're used to. i say this with no pleasure, you know, on november nine and in the following weeks and even months after the election. >> that's one of the things about these republican candidates that i actually think democrats are ignoring to their detriment. these are largely unvetted candidates, usually in a normal republican process. republicans would bet each other and you find out what's wrong with them. you know all of dr oz problems, not in the general. that has not happened with a lot of these candidates because everyone was just vying for trump's attention. democrats should be looking at, i mean, it's a little late in the game to get enough, but i think there's going to be a lot of the unknowns of the surprises that are going to be right there in front of us that people never that republicans didn't go after. it has been the best example of doing that. i have to say it was negligent in not finding all these things in the fetterman campaign because they were spending millions of dollars. they were all trying to just say i'm more trump, i'm more trump who has been like a d horror movie person with selena is out there and in the extreme things she had said. so these candidates that are now being vetted in primetime general are going to make things much more uncertain. and i think the house races, the crowds are kind of ignoring that in many cases, assuming like, oh, somebody already checked that out and given that i'm from virginia where i didn't find, you know, the, remember the uh kkk and blackface picture until after the election to anybody out there. you know, if you're not doing your basic bread and butter stuff right now, shame on you because candidates that have come up in the trump world are totally unvetted. they're not just extreme and bad candidates. they are vetted personally and that is not good. >> i don't know if you had something to add, is this another place that you're in in consensus with with barbara here? >> yeah, and i want to let you i think there's two things, i in here too. mean, i think arizona is actually the state that i am going to pay in somewhat the most attention to in this cycle. you have the competitive senate race. i mean, mark kelly, there's so much money going in there to protect that seat. on the democratic side, you've got open seats on the house side, you've got the governor's race and the secretary of state and you have eggs exactly what bill said, which is election deniers. and you also have a native population, the navajo nation, they're delivered 12 to 13% of biden's vote in the presidential race. and that is going to be a place where people are going to try and discredit that vote. they're going to try and prevent that vote. and so that is going to play right into the election denier. so i think, you know, if this is, i don't even think it's one point, i think she'd go goes on if it is, if it's three or five points, she goes on and says it's all bs right. and she contests it just because it is so right there. i think barbra's absolutely right on the side that i wish that, you know more, we're doing opposition research in that bread and better way i am the person who's hugely skeptical about whether voters care about that anymore, we've lived through two impeachments. we've lived through multiple impeachments all the way back to the clinton era, we've lived through fraud, financial fraud. we've lived through, you know, we've lived through so much from a personal foible perspective that i do, i do question or ask the question about whether american voters really just like, sure you're gonna tell me that and i'm gonna tell you he's a nice guy or sure you're gonna tell me that, but i'm gonna tell you, i go to church with her. so, you know, i wish they were doing it. um, and i think it does take something like finding a candidate in blackface to to break through that, which is unfortunate. letterman's doing that basic stuff. yeah, but he's a trump person. he's just saying he's odd, he's kooky stuff and he owns 12 houses. >> i certainly think that i just, you know, there's some question in my mind, but i think, you know, this is, as bill said, this is unprecedented. everybody should be doing, you know, the committees and the voters and students should be doing everything they can to sort of organize and get involved because this is, wow. >> i just wanted to add to that point that this is where i think local journalism is so important in this day and age because yes, well, people may not be swayed or persuaded as much anymore. i think it's up to those local reporters to do that digging, opposition research, but to really go after those unvetted candidates to really do the homework to put it in front of the readers and for the readers to decide right, but you have to be able to get them in the press. and yes, there's a lot of people that are not being vetted and there is a lot of suffering right now with local newspapers and local stations not having the resources to do this. but it's in i think if one advice for the students would be, is to go and read your local newspaper every day and really get to know those candidates and have your local reporters go after them and press your your local tv stations to do more in terms of doing that vetting if nobody else's. >> it's interesting because i think so many candidates are probably looking for ways to localize the race. either they're a democrat and don't want to necessarily follow some of the biden numbers or there's concerns there. i think the liz cheney race is a good example of a nationalized race and i looked on websites did research there. i didn't see, you know, her opponent talking that much about what she's gonna do for wyoming or those wyoming issues. it was such a nationalized race. i will one of our our students had a question. i'll go to you on this because it's something you brought up about whether or not the dems are, looking better, you know, in the senate's right now. he wants to know if they are looking better, you know, in the first democratic senate candidates, how and will this translate to house races? and on the local races janet as you mentioned, it's it's a good question. >> i mean very briefly, just on the point you made which is reporting. i think we all talk about what's caused the current moment, you know, and there are a million different things, as i say, sociological, cultural media, social media, but i do think the decline of the local dress which is mostly an economically driven thing. but it has to do with obviously the internet and the fact that people don't need it the way they used to has really had a big effect on our politics and it is underrated. there's a million things that you could talk about that have had a big effect and they all have, you know, it's like you cannot disentangle them. they all happened at the same time, but the decline of the local press now, there are local websites, i mean it was a local, i'm not mistaken, it was a web, it was a website, reporter, writer in florida who wrote the news about the trump about the search. i mean about the fbi search of trump. it wasn't, you know, the new york times, it wasn't a p. and it wasn't even the miami paper and so forth. so anyway, it's it's very important i mean, people need to point. do their own research locally and there are places to do that. i mean, generally what a political scientist, which i would say about the question is, senate races can separate themselves from a national trend. barbara sort of alluded to this earlier in a way that house races can't i mean, people just don't know house race, especially as an open seat. they don't know a challenger in the house race. they don't have the money to advertise if it's near a big city and they have to buy the whole media thing. there has changed a little bit of digital, but not totally. uh and if the senators incumbent, they probably know him, he's been there six years, you know, being having press conferences about how he's delivering infrastructure for that state. even if he voted against the bill and they see him the house person just has a much tougher time. getting, you know, gets a little bit swamped by the national and statewide news and trends. so typically, and this is historically true in 2010 when there was a massive wave, it swept the house, uh, from democratic to republican and a massive number of seats. but the democrats held held on in the senate. partly because senators can distinguish themselves more from their states. it really is more nationalized and polarized. that has been true in the senate. i think 26 states had senators. half the states had democratic delegations and half had republican. now i think the numbers are 44 states have senators from one party. only six states have one of each. what that does to our politics, it just changes the whole flavor of what politics is like and what politics is like in the united states senate. the polarization has had a fundamental effect on our politics. it has trended that way in senate races. could beck change a little bit this cycle? i kind of think it could little bit. the senate has gotten more like the house with election results over the last 20 or 30 years. >> i appreciate that perspective. going to go to another student question. but i'm going to direct this question at first and would love other people's comments to catherine. you have served on the board of the national abortion rights action league. what happened with roe and the supreme court. but then what happened with the vote in kansas? right, i mean, you see this, you know, that had a big, what are these both going to have as an impact. what is the impact and what you see especially with your experience working with an organization that's dedicated to looking at a state-by-state? >> yeah, i mean, i hate to say it, but we told people this was gonna happen for 30 years in every election cycle. we said the at gabriel and emily's list and planned parenthood, listen like this is the supreme court's on the line and when the supreme court goes, so does roe v. wade. i mean the chicken was the sky was falling, we told everybody and nobody believed us. i truly don't think people believed us until the decision was leaked. i have seen more money flowing into third party groups and independent expenditures on both sides, probably than never before. i believe kansas is a harbinger only for the fact that we're about to have 50 state laws um and 50 different state policies. there's no national momentum for, especially even with even if we retain that, even if democrats retain the senate and it's a narrow, a much more narrow majority in the house, there's this is a 50 year strategy. we're back to rebuilding this from a federal level level. and so there's a lot of work being done to figure out the eyes for -- that ties for republican candidates right now, two different aspects of different personal aspects, business foibles missteps, all that kind of stuff. and also tying that to their votes on abortion rates in this country. i just think that kansas was a great example of community based organizing, community based. i mean it was so under the radar, if people, if any political prognosticator had said that that was going to turn out that way, i would have just said you have no idea. because it was under the radar, it was locally driven. it probably means that we have 50 state policies, um 50 state ballot initiatives and we are going to have this fight now um to protect the lives and health of women around this country for another 50 years. i do think that the plus side for kansas, especially for democrats in this world is local organizing, local community, empowering local organizations, works. you don't have to run this from a suite in washington dc. turn the money over to the states, turn the money over to the people who know the community's turn the money over to the people who have the faith and trust of their next door neighbor and will be listened to. and maybe that helps turn the tide because that's what worked in kansas. >> anybody else on the those issues? one of the issues that i think strategically, people want to is is there evidence or enough evidence that trump backed candidates are turning off more moderate republicans? i don't know if we've seen anything anybody reporting on that. are these candidates that making it through the primary, do they win in a general election with more moderate republicans and independents? >> i think that's the problem why you're seeing the problem in the senate with those key races? doug ducey running in the senate against mark kelly, i think it would be far more competitive and probably advantage republicans. rob portman would've been sailing to re election and, you know, or a portman like candidate. so, i think the evidence is very, very much in the senate races. i think with the redistricting, a lot of the states that some of the seats that may have been closer before aren't as close as they were, but, and i think maybe with kansas as an example as others, you know, when you have too extreme, you can go right off the cliff, you know, you can be, well, i can be with glenn youngkin is my friend. i voted for him. i'm not voting for election deniers, so, you know, so in virginia, who replaced denver reblooming? i think for a lot of republicans, i think you see that evidence in the know, unfortunately, that district got a little bit more republican, so it's not a problem for bob good, but the quality that's gonna make next year, you're gonna have a lot more marjorie, greene's a lot more crazy people, you know, like miller from illinois, beat out rocky, um, rodney davis, sensible, pretty mainstream guy. so we got a kook instead, you know, we got downgrades and a lot of these seats. but that means when you're the republican leadership and you need to have a budget passed, you need to have something done, you can't shut down the government all the time. you have nobody to go to anymore. and then if, say you have, like an elise stefanik who's already running for vice president, you know, with trump, she's gonna have to say no to everything. so then you're going to get nothing done in the house and have all these extreme, when we were there, the freedom caucus is dominated, you're going to have more of those types there. i mean, if donald trump calls up harriet hagman and says, hey, mike lindell here, and he wants to have a hearing on this, you know, they're going to have to go get in the clown car with mike lindell in trump. a real problem to manage in a caucus. >>'s democracy on the ballot? this is the first election after, you know, the the attack on the capitol on january six. >> i would think so, and the more we talk about january 6th closer to the elections and the more development there is, and like i said, if the department of justice gets involved, i think that would definitely play a major role in in the elections for sure, and people will vote, like we've seen it, we've seen it, we saw it in the primaries where january 6th was a talking point for the media for the candidates, for the voters, and they definitely went to the ballots thinking about january 6th and how those candidates thought are reacting to it, and i also want to take it back and kind of flip the moderate democrats and how they many and and this is happening. i've seen it happen along the us border with many districts. they're having turned um turning republican and those moderate or liberal democrats who would have easily won those races are now having to turn more moderate democrats and more right winning to be able to stay to stay in the race. i'm thinking of representative gonzalez, for example, who even had to switch districts because he knew that he could no longer hold his district and the previous district that he had. so he's running another district altogether trying to survive there. so it's not only the republicans, crazy republicans turning off moderate republicans, but also liberal democrats going to the right to be able to survive the midterm elections. and really knowing that if they don't do that, the their, you know, their lives and and their house seats are at stake. well, >> well, it's interesting too, because you bring up this is a redistricting, you know, election as well. we have members running against members in certain districts there, there's been an influence about how are they these being drawn that will affect the long term. what are see there? >> i think the consensus is that the district registering solidified republican democratic districts as opposed to throwing more up in the air, which has not always been the case. we'll see what new york has a kind of colorful race with to a long term incumbent democrats next week. some of them got knocked off and some of them are in tougher races because the districts isn't entirely people who voted for. the reason a change, redistricting changes the partisan leans of different districts and be people sort of forget this. incumbents sometimes have to run in districts where they only had half of before two thirds, one third, and then a lot of the voters aren't their voters, so to speak and voted for them before and they lose the advantage of incumbency for the new voters, so to speak. and this is happening to me, i'm not in the same district, i was before the redistricting. you know, this kind and this is a big challenge for allison spanberger, let's abigail spanberger here in virginia democrat who is running in a district where 80% of her voters aren't people who voted for before, so she has to spend a lot of money reintroducing herself, which normally if you're an incumbent you'd spend just kind of taking credit for things and then attacking your extreme opponents. i think on the whole, people are a little too obsessed with gerrymandering and redistricting. i'm not happy about gerrymandering would prefer neutral commissions and so forth. but it doesn't explain quite as much of the changes in our politics as you would think, since the senate hasn't been gerrymandering in 60 years and it hasn't changed the state lines have not changed. so a lot of it is d deeper socio economic things and media nationalization polarization and so forth. >> well, it's interesting, i did not think of it from the senate perspective. we talked to congressman will hurd. his point was we are solidifying these d. n. r. districts, there's less competitive districts and this is why we're getting these challenges, you know, in elections, whether it is vote turnout, whether it's the candidates that are coming through the primary, but what do you, i can't even remember the number of competitive districts we had when we were there. you know. what are your thoughts on that? i think he was pretty serious about this is why we are where we are because there is not just as much competition. >> on the house side, we're looking at a playing field that's really fighting over about 25 seats. it is pretty precarious. if you look at some of the models from last month, you know, the prediction of 230 republican seats after election day 2, 205 democrats were gonna, you know, the idea that we would lose that many seats and it's all playing out in those 2025 maybe 30 districts and all playing out with, you know, localized agendas, localized pieces, some national stuff, i definitely think, you know, there's some question, but you know, i don't, i mean this is really a question for, you know, janet and barbara and bill like that the intensity of the trump vote is what's so scary, right? we all think maybe they're a little nutty or we wish there was a different thing, but like my family are believers. they are in a red district. >> it's overemphasized because because they scream louder. it's probably 20%, which means it's a big part of the republican party. if you're 20% of the country who believes this stuff, the nuts, you know, a big cancer on the republican party. they are voting no matter what. so the idea that whatever new happens between now and november changes that they're voting, i think the unknowns are what happens to get the democrat vote are coming out and what candidates out there are genuinely good candidates. >> i tend to be a pessimist and think that we are actually a country like sort of governed by the tyranny of the vocal minority, not the silent majority. the suppression of voters whether, you know, direct the idea that, you know, people our -- are disenchanted, so they do not vote. i definitely think that we probably provide too much over emphasis to these super loud, but at the same time they are on both sides. the people that heavily invested on the left will come out and, on the hot side too. we have 25, 30 seats that we're gonna play in on the house side. both parties pretty dramatically and the intensity by which we play and what that does in terms of our people mobilized? >> the news cycles in the next 82 days. when you're in these 82 days -- going back to 2016. i opposed donald trump. i assumed he would lose and i would lose. what changed was instead of the news cycle every day being when thank you jim comey, he comes out and with hillary clinton stuff at the end of october um, that changed the new cycle. hillary blames the fbi for losing. donald trump blames the fbi for losing. i think they are both wrong. i think they are both lousy candidates and they just happened to lose. but when you're in these very precarious situations with kind of a lot of bad candidates, i guess this cycle for the next 82 days, is more precarious for republicans than it is for democrats. it is going to be harder for republicans and swing seats than democrats. >> i think that is right. politics and history is very more contingent than people think and more path dependent if you want to use a social science term. i do think actually hillary ran a primary campaign, but probably wins without jim comey. jim comey makes a slightly random decision that he has to make this letter public in october 28 because he got attacked for, you know, making other things, doing other things and i agree with barbara the underlying and should have been had by eight points, so it shouldn't have mattered. but still it did matter in the real world. it was a very big deal that that the republicans picked up 12 how seats in 2020. people like me were wanted to say, trump's disaster, trump's disaster. you got trump at the top of the ticket, you're finished, you cannot win anything. they eventually lose georgia, but on election night they are up in the senate. it was very hard afterwards for people like me to make the case, honestly, and it would have been honest to say trump has just destroyed the republican party, really. and they've recruited even more women and minorities. it's a big mistake for anti trump people to say inevitably it is all going to fail. i think ultimately, i do think republicans will get punished this year for various things and democrats will outperform the traditional midyear election. if republicans had not lost 10 seats, which is totally than what people expected. everyone ridiculed trump for saying we're gonna win the house gained house seats and whatever, he did not quite when it but they came close. if republicans lose 10 house seats in 2020 and lose a couple of these senate seats, they thought were in play that they end up that ended up reverting at the end. i think the effect of january six is totally different. i don't think kevin mccarthy, i don't think they rallied it. they did not think republicans in the house do not think donald trump is a disaster for them. kevin mccarthy is 3 to 1 odds to become speaker of the house in 2022. and they're probably going to reelect republican governors will become more and more trumpy and much trumpy er, than their predecessors. one of the biggest things students i think people really need to think hard about is, i mean, i hope there's a political price to be paid. until there's a much more evident political price to be paid for being a trumpy republican and it's t just in rather few swing districts, but it is across the nation. i think very hard to change the party now. i think maybe pennsylvania and ohio and wisconsin and michigan this year will make a big difference. and that will be an interesting question. does it affect the presidential, you know, raises in 23 4 doesn't really strengthen those on the republican side, who said we can't do trump again? it is an underreported fact that republicans felt ok about their own party in 2021. half of them work happy to get rid of trump. i think this was kippered's point -- katherine's point. >> well, listen, we i'm cognizant of time to hear, i we've covered policy, we've covered politics. am going to go to predictions. i would love to ask for all of you and i'll start with you janet, like, can you envision, what does, what does the congress look like after november 8 jack --? what is going to happen at the start of a major presidential election in 2024? >> i think we've all failed at that recently. i will regroup after november 8. i think the house goes to republicans, the senate holds. >> let's go to you next barbara. >> i think the senate stays democrat, down two or three. those will be trump candidates. how those swing seats are determined may be impacted by some of these bad senate candidates. that could have an impact then how things are going forward. one of the leadership races will be tom amber. he is very popular. he is a more collegial person and less, more practical. elise stefanik now announcing that she is going to run. who wins the race could determine if there's any success at all in the house. >> catherine? i think you are muted. why don't we go to build. -- bill. >> i'll just revert to my original point, i think surprising things will happen and it will be more chaotic than we expect. are we confident that trump doesn't try to depose him with stefanik or somebody else? are we confident that i assume if they lose the house speaker, pelosi steps down as leader and probably just resigns from the house, maybe not if it's really close, but she thinks she could really affect things, but maybe she does. i guess we think hakeem jeffries is next in line, but we're not certain we don't know about that. does mcconnell stay incidentally as minority leader for another maybe he does. i just think the degree of and and right away the question becomes both trump assuming he's running. how strong is he? and does biden run again? which imes kept to bilbao. -- which i am skeptical about. i don't think harris is a lay down to be the nominee as well. >> i keep my money in mitch mcconnell. >> ok. i am writing all these down. >> i think the senate stays in democratic hands, the house is in republican hands, but much more narrowly than many are predicting. we see probably 4 to 5 high profile recount election four or five high profile, not decided on election night races. it will make the landscape of the 2024 election even mourn president did. i also do not think that harris is issuing. -- a shoe in. >> so many factors to determine that. >> to finish it out, what is your advice to all the students on here? there is so much at stake. there is so much going on. there's so many factors. what would you advise them? >> i think regardless of party get involved with candidates that you believe in. people who are principled and that you want to work with. particularly in these 50-50 districts. you can really make a difference in do not be did scourged. -- discouraged. if you are up in pennsylvania, jumped in and there are a lot of races to play in there. you can make a big difference in arizona. engaging in those races and getting election deniers. we can all agree on that. >> like i said, read your local paper, stay on top of your local issues. make sure you read the you know the national news and cnn and the washington post of the world, but really stay on top of your local issues because those will dominate your lives and will have real impact on on your house and households in in the next few years. >> go work on a campaign. i try not to hire anybody who hasn't worked on a political >> zones really matter in the next two years so make sure put in an effort. on cnn and washington was the world stay of those because those will dominate your lives and will have a effect on your house and tells for the next few years for sure. themselves in politics and america. >> some people are dropping off and have been able to answer questions from our students. i cannot enqueue enough -- i cannot enqueue -- cannot rank -- thank you enough. i thank you for your voice. you are welcome on this campus. we will ask you to bring your voices to these conversations. i want to thank you. we will all get together maybe afterward and i will bring my paperwork with those predictions and we will see how it goes. but i am sure there will be a lot of discussion about this election. i will close it by saying that cap friends point about the farm bill coming up. elections have consequences. so these are not competitions for consequent -- competition sake. campaigns are about contrast -- government is about consensus or should be about consensus. we will bring you all back and talk about what is the new la with the c-span shop end of summer sale now through tuesday. at c-span shop.org, 25% on apparel items. here is something for every c-span fan and every purchase supports our nonprofit operation . c-span summer sale now through tuesday on c-span shop.org. skin the code on the right to start shopping now. connecticut congressman jim himes was part of a discussion on how federal investment can help improve job opportunities and economic conditions in low income and distressed communities. also joining the conversation at this urban institute event were community advocates who talked about the need to invest in and rehabilitate neighborhoods without driving out longtime residents. >> i'm excited i get to have a conversation with another person who has dedicated his career to improving neighborhoods. jim himes is in his seventh term from connecticut. he started in the finance sector but became passionate about helping lower income communities which led him to leadd member ot organization. at enterprise, he oversa
others at boric. we also have barbara comstock, kathryn miller, the founder at table 81 and janet rodriguez, currently head of internal communications asked -- and a former white house correspondent. differing opinions, differing perspectives, differing backgrounds, but the common thread that may be is the most important for all of you is sign institute fellows. i am so appreciative of you joining us again. you are so well-liked and respected, it is great to have you with us today. we are at the precipice of another midterm election. 82 days out. we had in the senate, 14 democratic seats, 21 republican. 32 of the 34 seats were up in 2016. it is amazing how this is the class of the senate we are looking at and what will be the control of that narrow margin. the u.s. house is going to be a big topic of conversation today as all seats are up and several of them are targeted. the primaries have pushed what kind of election we are looking at in terms of gubernatorial races. in the state legislatures, if you can believe, eth chambers in 46 states are up. all of these individuals voting soon to determine what our leaders to -- leadership structure is. we want to hear your perspectives. i want to encourage anybody who is joining us today to ask questions throughout. we are not waiting until the end. if you have questions specifically as the conversation is going. to my colleagues, this is a conversation. we will ask questions and if you want to have follow-ups between individuals and peers, let's talk this through. i guess the first thing i would like to do is give you a few minutes to get a general perspective of what you are paying attention to. we would love to start with you, barbara. as somebody who has been in the seat, and many members who are up for reelection, what are you thinking? what are you focused on? >> we know the majority -- majorities are made in swing states. while the focus has largely been on primaries to date -- republicans trump vengeance or trump trying to pick extreme election deniers, we now move into the fall where being a trump extremist is less valuable. particularly in these swing states. as i look at it, you can get a primary but if you are christine o'donnell or richard murdoch or todd akin, republicans who lost in republican states. winning the nomination did not make them a senator. we already have candidates like dr. oz who has been failing spectacularly. he is a trump-endorsed first-time candidate, not even living in pennsylvania. john fetterman, his liberal opponent has trolled him excessively for not being pennsylvanian. so he is failing in the polls, he is failing in money. blake masters in arizona and j.d. vance are both candidates that peter thiel, a trump millionaire, decided he wants to buy. these are two he has brought in -- retail candidates. mcmaster is double digits down. very extreme candidate -- talk about that and i think mark kelly is sitting on the kind of money he is, a lot happier these days. although the whole ticket in arizona is an election denying ticket, which i oppose. j.d. vance. tim robbins doing much better than expected. herschel walker. donald trump, who lost, the gift that keeps on giving for georgia democrats. rachel record now about his former wife -- [indiscernible] -- a terrible candidate. on the state front, brad raffensperger and governor kemp. there's four seats there that are not looking great. [no audio] [please stand by] >> people were talking about the huge red blowout. the number one reason is instead of having your number one issue being the economy, biden's poor ratings, trump is back in the front seat, driving the clown car for summary republicans. if you are in a swing state, that is a nightmare. i have been in a swing state when trump was in power and it didn't matter what your numbers were. trump's numbers. after the 2018 election but whatever trump's negative numbers were -- what the democrats got. almost to a tee. >> right. >> that was the gift that keeps on giving. the policies are doing better, you have seen democrat candidates outrun biden's numbers largely because of this reappearance of trump. the fact that while trump's problems are increasing -- liz cheney -- vengeance tour -- increasing legal problems. [indiscernible] trump does very poorly in court where truth and facts matter. he is now entering the factual, legal portion of his problems. today, he had guilty pleas from his lawyer. i expect see indictments, lawyers and people coming soon and perhaps even for trump himself. that is going to have an impact in swing districts. much more so than the senate -- todd young in indiana. he's out running around talking about trump -- chips act, infrastructure bill, compromise. [indiscernible] he is a great republican candidate. for a house republican [indiscernible] [indiscernible] -- everything stupid trump does. if the democrats are not totally asleep, that is going to be wrapped around your neck. because that is how house republicans play. cheney is going to be opposing election deniers. and then you have abortion looming, particularly in michigan. i do not think the gubernatorial candidate will do well. peter meyer, if the democrats are not totally asleep committee should be able to take him out. other candidates like that who won these swing districts are going to be big money sucks. -- because they have less money because donald trump is sucking all the money. you heard how he -- all this money, that is money that is not going to republican candidates. people protesting in mar-a-lago are not getting a single vote in a swing district. -- reappearing at this time is -- both financially and though twice to the -- house as well as the senate. >> as always, you gave a really great overview. i have to say, if you look at past lives, we've got a battle amongst research directors. you led the research team for president bush's campaign in 2000. i first met catherine miller, and everyone knows her so well for her work in food policy and everything she has done, but she also wore the head of research director at the d triple c where editor -- where i met her. we are going to have you go next and give you an overview. >> i don't have much to disagree with. [laughter] >> we are already building consensus. >> jokingly, i say we should all be eating crudites and not with sulci. the ability for democrats to capitalize on some of foibles of the republican party and the missteps, the personal problems, the challenges and the ties to an extremist arm that sometimes does not believe the world is round. it is, i think, going to pay dividends. that's to say on the senate side, we are always looking at voter protection efforts. i also designed the voter protection efforts for dccc for several cycles. we will look at policy conversations and think it is going well. and there are always efforts to prevent people from voting legitimately. we saw the strengths of the indigenous population in alaska, a democrat made that runoff. that was largely on the strength of a native population. we can look optimistically at the changing momentum for democrats, but we have to keep a strong eye, especially in those roles based on native and indigenous population voter suppression efforts and make sure that is a priority at the committee right now. and at the white house. on the house side, a little more pessimistic. going all the way back precolonial, all politics is local. i look at some of these places i cannot imagine voting for some of these candidates. yet, it is happening. i am from rural north florida. republicans in the first district invited -- to speak at the high school like, come, talk to us. why would you bring this into a high school? i think the thing that i watched as a policy person, especially related to food and as we move into farm bill season where we're going to write the largest piece of legislation that employs farmers and feeds americans who controls the house and senate agriculture committees. there's no bigger question right now in my mind. and so i'm looking at places like georgia. i'm looking at places like michigan. i'm looking at places like arizona. mark kelly, the senate race and the house races there. i'm looking to see what happens. chuck grassley is gonna hang on, you know, with dear life to that senate seat. but you know what iowa and the redistricting in iowa means for the houses house races there. i think the next 82 days are going to be really interesting. we always say that, but there's a lot at play here and it is national momentum related to issues. the challenge is localized efforts and then we're really gonna have to pay attention to voter suppression and voter protection efforts across the country. and then we should all be voting on the issues that we care about. and we see this with, you know, abortion taking a front row on the supreme court. they're really motivated. a lot of voters on the democratic side and on the republican side. so issues are going to take a play in this in this election cycle, but wow, it's going to be a ride. >> yeah. and i think in a great way, katherine, you bring up elections have consequences. right? so many of the decisions that we're making in november affect decisions that will be happening at the beginning of the year around policy. i'm gonna go to you now, bill, because i think when i started this job, if any of my democratic friends knew that one of my favorite things is to go have coffee with you at compass coffee, they'd be shocked. but it is. and i've learned a lot from you. so i really want to know your perspective. you've been writing certainly a lot about the elections and what you're seeing, but you've also a veteran of these campaigns and looking from different perspectives. what are you seeing and what is really standing out to you? >> well, thanks, amy. and it's good to be with everyone and i enjoy the coffees too. i myself have always been more open minded and therefore happy to have coffee with sensible democrats. but that's okay. i'm sure it does shock some people. i guess i just pick up maybe on really what katherine sort of implied, but didn't quite say, which is we are really in uncharted waters. and one reason, i think incidentally everyone's like, oh, it was very surprising what's happening in the generic congressional poll because it's so different from biden. well, yeah, but you know, this is not 2010, it's not 2014, it's not 1994. we have had the trump presidency, which was unprecedented in many ways. and i'm not even making a judgment here. i'm just saying analytically empirically, we've not quite gone through this before. two impeachments, never been in politics before, becomes president. everything that happened, of course, we've had a post presidency that's unprecedented with him wanting to stay ahead of the party, staying ahead of the party. being investigated by the fbi, being impeached, but not convicted. the very, very end of his presidency, january 6. i will stress is unprecedented. and the after effects of that very unpredictable. and i'd say the after effects unprecedented in the sense that many of us expected. well, that might be the moment. and finally, the party liberates from trump. and in a sense, we get back to a more normal situation and that didn't happen, which is kind of, we now take that for granted, but it's really if you step back and think, well, what we would have all said on january 7th, it's pretty astonishing. so it's a very astonishing and unpredictable moment. and then roe v wade, a 49 year old precedent that everyone thinks of it originally and so forth, overturned on a purely partisan. let's call it a decision that's handed down by judges entirely appointed by presidents of one party. that was not the case, of course. originally with roe v. wade. 5-4 decision, 6-3 on the judgment because roberts would have sustained the upheld the mississippi law, but would not have overturned roe nationally. so 5-4 on that, three of the five being appointed by trump, one of the most controversial presidents in our history. we have not had this experience. there is zero historical precedent for this. we've had the court be controversial. obviously, in fact, brown was extremely controversial. roe was controversial. republicans ran against the war in court and with some success in the sixties and seventies. but we have just not had an election season where this has been central and it really is an issue. it's not just symbolically interesting. i mean, actual governors are gonna make a difference in michigan and wisconsin and elsewhere as to what the actual laws on the subject that's actual importance to a lot of americans. it's gonna be, you know, so it's not like people, i remember talking to my friends, many of them old friends, pro life friends very much minimizing the alito draft opinion came out in the spring. oh, well, you know what? never, everyone always says it's gonna be a big political issue. there's diehards, especially in the pro life side, it never really matters. it's not gonna affect, just gonna lance the boil, it's gonna settle down. i mean, it could have happened, it could still happen incidentally, four years from now. we could look back and say, well, settle down, we have different laws in different states and so forth. no federal legislation perhaps, but for now it's the boil, it's alive and political issue. and again, so you put all this together and we don't know, i mean, honestly, we don't know, i will say i was early in saying that the fact that biden was unpopular did not necessarily mean there would be a huge republican wave. i've been through these races as we all have, where there is a popular popularity, the president does drive things. and you could argue that that's even more the case with the nationalizing of elections. on the other hand, certainly, senate races can separate and voters are also capable of saying, i'm not crazy about biden. but let's look at the two parties that are competing for control of the senate and the house or what their agendas are and what their leadership is and trump is now as part of a sort of suggested as much on the ballot, at least for now, i'd say is biden. i mean, you know, neither is on the ballot, but therefore let's say figuratively on the ballot. i think i was early and just looking and seeing in the polls that the congressional, the generic congressional ballot that for people who aren't following the stuff obsessively is, you know, opposed to simply ask a national poll. usually who would you prefer controls congress in the next session and the republicans or democrats and that's been pretty close. and the republicans were ahead by three points or so. now democrats have probably a tiny bit ahead, biden managed to sink from -8 to -15 and this year in 2022. i just looked this up the other day and the generic ballot has gone in the other direction by a couple of points. so all the conventional now, maybe it will ultimately work out the way it has in the past. presidents approval dominates. this is a temporary bear market rally for democrats. the house, you can't really separate yourself. there'll be tens of millions of dollars republican ads attaching democratic house candidates to reasonably unpopular president, maybe it'll revert, but maybe it won't, you know, and anyway, but for now, at least we're seeing pretty unprecedented decoupling of presidential in generic. and i'm very dubious of all the conventional wisdom, even that some of these senators as safe as people think or house members? i don't know, we are utterly confident that it's inconceivable that voters in iowa will just decide 87 years old for a six year term is kind of a problem. and incidentally, for all that they, like grassley personally has been to every county 5000 times. you know, he is a vote for, i think at least nominally a vote for a legal national legislation to have very strict restrictions on abortion. i don't know quite what he's certainly pro life and i believe he's probably endorsed that at least nominally. and i don't know, is it crazy that, you know, you can, the state, uh, does have a democratic, has had democrats elected, you know, in modern times. i think grassley probably wins, but, you know, but a lot of these states that people are sort of very cavalier about dismissing people have over, i'll say one thing to students, to things to students, people have over learned a lesson, which is a true lesson of politics is nationalized. politics is polarized, demography is destiny. you can look at the presidential vote in the last couple of cycles to predict every house and senate race. and that has been more true in the last decade or two. that it was true when i first came to washington and there was a huge disconnect between presidential vote and senate and house vote in the olden days. that has gradually been removed because of a million different things going on in the country. economic, sociologically, economically, culturally, geographically, politically, the character of the party's nationalization of elections and media and everything else. these trends continue until they don't continue, right? i think people choose too quick to say, oh florida, that was 2020 republican, inconceivable that democrats would win an election, statewide election, in florida. like really in 2018, which was not ancient history, the democrats came within one point of winning two statewide, the governor and senate races in florida. so, i don't know what's going to happen there, but people are just too quick to assume that trends that have been, have gone in certain states that have moved red or blue in the last four or eight years or just like there forever? and that's why nevada could go the opposite way of where it's been and florida in my opinion, or states like that could go in the opposite direction. when you're in uncharted waters, some of these trends don't necessarily continue in the same direction and students should be, i think they should learn the history and learn the political science and the teaching stuff. and it's usually a pretty good guide until it's not a good guy. but this is any time, it's not gonna be a good guy, it's going to be this year final which just to look ahead of it. i mean, katherine's point about policy, but it's going to be such a crazy year. who knows what that looks like? let's say republicans in the house. and democrats in the senate. what does it look like when they have hearings on hunter biden and try to impeach joe biden. and mccarthy is looking over his shoulder, whatever trump is saying. if mccarthy's even speaker. all these other people who will have been elected or reelected, who are, you know, screaming and yelling that he has to advance this, what do they do? do they pass even nominally restriction on abortion? what does that do nationally? does that republican vote for that? i'm not so sure does the party start to fracture in all kinds of ways that it has in the past in the house? what does biden do biden ran for re election? what does trump do is he already does he announced in the next couple of weeks for reelection and there's so many variable and does trump get indicted. what's the popular reaction to that? it's not gonna be a normal, okay, we've been through this, you know, you lose the house or congress in your first off year and you cut a deal like obama did in 2011 with john boehner or clinton and gingrich did in 1995. and we kind of know what the next two years following the look like and it's interesting and important to work out and there will be a lot of politics as usual. and like katherine says, it's important to work out what the farm bill will look like and that matters who controls each house and the chair the chairs of the relevant committees are. but there could be such craziness and in both parties, especially the republican party? but a lot of uncertainty in the democratic party, especially if biden doesn't run again and all the kind of polarization and the legal investigations and post january 6th committee sort of developments. and liz cheney is a very unusual wildcard. so people should pay close attention but be very open minded, i guess, is the way i would put it about how things are going to play out. >> i think it's it's so important to bring that up because i always caution candidates when i'm talking to them. you lose when you look at when you're running the race and back at you not rather than the race in front of you. sure there's these indicators, there's these things that traditionally we've seen losses in midterms, you know, for the for the presidential party in power, but any one of those things would affect this race and in a unique way, the fact that all these are swirling around is unbelievable. that's why i'm going to go right to you, janet, there's nobody who has like seen it all firsthand during, you know, the trump white house as well and and follow that along as a journalist as somebody who's, you know, definitely covered, trump's impact when he was president? it's interesting in this midterm after post presidency. what impacts you having him love to hear your perspective and also how news is being disseminated? this cycle as well. so welcome, janet, it's good to see you. i can't hear you. there is no way to predict anything that the media has right before the election. i am watching what will happen with the january 6 committee and where will they be right before the election. investigations? we were talking about all the legal troubles that trump may all the legal troubles trump may incur in the future. the only thing we should be watching closely. they have to adjust to the new cycle that they see coming. will react and voters do react to to what happens as we saw specifically. i'm thinking of hillary clinton and the emails and and everything that happened in the last election. so we know that the prettiest election, so we definitely need to watch. and i think one thing, if i if i had to say for journalists, one thing that we also pay attention to is the local races, because historically, we know that if we do have a link on session, as it seems that it will be for the next two years, local elections have real consequences and very consequential in what happens in the next two years in our country. so, local laws will happen. whoever gets elected and the legislatures will kind of shape those states for the next two years and for many, many years ahead, because those laws could have real, you know, consequences in the population there and then those people get elected to congress at a later time and so on and so forth. so definitely keeping a very, very close eye into what happens in the states. as we look at how that shapes the next two years of applause with our country and one race that i'm really interested in just because there is an anchor involved in the katie hubs in arizona, which is really wild. as you guys, know, i used to work in arizona. i was a colleague on kari lake. we didn't work at the same station, but seeing her now possibly would, could win the gubernatorial race in arizona would be really crazy in my mind, but really while it really possible, so that comes to show you that anything could happen in this upcoming elections. and we should be as bill said, very open minded that, that things are not going to be conventional, that things are just gonna switch and back and forth. we kind of can see the picture on the wall and how things may shape up. but i think we hold it until the last minute, just like we did with the trump election. >> here's a wild card that people are talking about. carrie lake loses by one point, let's just say in arizona and it's a little uncertain what election because they have a lot of of course their vote is very highly early and by mail. and so we're not sure that you don't know until does carry. like just accept that. does she not go on tv tuesday night and say it's being stolen? does she have no support for that in the arizona legislature? does she have no support for that among certain election officials in some of the counties in arizona and some of them refused to certify the degree of chaos we could have. and i say this with no pleasure because this would be very bad obviously for the country. but people focused and i focused a lot and i think a lot of people have focused on 2020 for and how do we fix the electoral college kind of, you know, problems and ways to build strengthen those guard rails against 2020 happening again from november 3rd to january 6th, so to speak. but in 2022 we could have this kind of thing happening now. i think ultimately, maybe, you know, governor ducey doesn't doesn't put up with it. and then the election secretary of state doesn't put up with it and so forth. but what if a republican has won? the secretary of state in the end and the incumbent secretary of state says no, but the person who just got elected says no, i think gary lakes right, we need to have about who knows what right? a new accounting and audits and fraud. it's i mean, i think i mentioned that this lake is so particularly extreme on this, but we could have much more chaos than we're used to. i say this with no pleasure, you know, on november nine and in the following weeks and even months after the election. >> that's one of the things about these republican candidates that i actually think democrats are ignoring to their detriment. these are largely unvetted candidates, usually in a normal republican process. republicans would bet each other and you find out what's wrong with them. you know all of dr oz problems, not in the general. that has not happened with a lot of these candidates because everyone was just vying for trump's attention. democrats should be looking at, i mean, it's a little late in the game to get enough, but i think there's going to be a lot of the unknowns of the surprises that are going to be right there in front of us that people never that republicans didn't go after. it has been the best example of doing that. i have to say it was negligent in not finding all these things in the fetterman campaign because they were spending millions of dollars. they were all trying to just say i'm more trump, i'm more trump who has been like a d horror movie person with selena is out there and in the extreme things she had said. so these candidates that are now being vetted in primetime general are going to make things much more uncertain. and i think the house races, the crowds are kind of ignoring that in many cases, assuming like, oh, somebody already checked that out and given that i'm from virginia where i didn't find, you know, the, remember the uh kkk and blackface picture until after the election to anybody out there. you know, if you're not doing your basic bread and butter stuff right now, shame on you because candidates that have come up in the trump world are totally unvetted. they're not just extreme and bad candidates. they are vetted personally and that is not good. >> i don't know if you had something to add, is this another place that you're in in consensus with with barbara here? >> yeah, and i want to let you i think there's two things, i in here too. mean, i think arizona is actually the state that i am going to pay in somewhat the most attention to in this cycle. you have the competitive senate race. i mean, mark kelly, there's so much money going in there to protect that seat. on the democratic side, you've got open seats on the house side, you've got the governor's race and the secretary of state and you have eggs exactly what bill said, which is election deniers. and you also have a native population, the navajo nation, they're delivered 12 to 13% of biden's vote in the presidential race. and that is going to be a place where people are going to try and discredit that vote. they're going to try and prevent that vote. and so that is going to play right into the election denier. so i think, you know, if this is, i don't even think it's one point, i think she'd go goes on if it is, if it's three or five points, she goes on and says it's all bs right. and she contests it just because it is so right there. i think barbra's absolutely right on the side that i wish that, you know more, we're doing opposition research in that bread and better way i am the person who's hugely skeptical about whether voters care about that anymore, we've lived through two impeachments. we've lived through multiple impeachments all the way back to the clinton era, we've lived through fraud, financial fraud. we've lived through, you know, we've lived through so much from a personal foible perspective that i do, i do question or ask the question about whether american voters really just like, sure you're gonna tell me that and i'm gonna tell you he's a nice guy or sure you're gonna tell me that, but i'm gonna tell you, i go to church with her. so, you know, i wish they were doing it. um, and i think it does take something like finding a candidate in blackface to to break through that, which is unfortunate. letterman's doing that basic stuff. yeah, but he's a trump person. he's just saying he's odd, he's kooky stuff and he owns 12 houses. >> i certainly think that i just, you know, there's some question in my mind, but i think, you know, this is, as bill said, this is unprecedented. everybody should be doing, you know, the committees and the voters and students should be doing everything they can to sort of organize and get involved because this is, wow. >> i just wanted to add to that point that this is where i think local journalism is so important in this day and age because yes, well, people may not be swayed or persuaded as much anymore. i think it's up to those local reporters to do that digging, opposition research, but to really go after those unvetted candidates to really do the homework to put it in front of the readers and for the readers to decide right, but you have to be able to get them in the press. and yes, there's a lot of people that are not being vetted and there is a lot of suffering right now with local newspapers and local stations not having the resources to do this. but it's in i think if one advice for the students would be, is to go and read your local newspaper every day and really get to know those candidates and have your local reporters go after them and press your your local tv stations to do more in terms of doing that vetting if nobody else's. >> it's interesting because i think so many candidates are probably looking for ways to localize the race. either they're a democrat and don't want to necessarily follow some of the biden numbers or there's concerns there. i think the liz cheney race is a good example of a nationalized race and i looked on websites did research there. i didn't see, you know, her opponent talking that much about what she's gonna do for wyoming or those wyoming issues. it was such a nationalized race. i will one of our our students had a question. i'll go to you on this because it's something you brought up about whether or not the dems are, looking better, you know, in the senate's right now. he wants to know if they are looking better, you know, in the first democratic senate candidates, how and will this translate to house races? and on the local races janet as you mentioned, it's it's a good question. >> i mean very briefly, just on the point you made which is reporting. i think we all talk about what's caused the current moment, you know, and there are a million different things, as i say, sociological, cultural media, social media, but i do think the decline of the local dress which is mostly an economically driven thing. but it has to do with obviously the internet and the fact that people don't need it the way they used to has really had a big effect on our politics and it is underrated. there's a million things that you could talk about that have had a big effect and they all have, you know, it's like you cannot disentangle them. they all happened at the same time, but the decline of the local press now, there are local websites, i mean it was a local, i'm not mistaken, it was a web, it was a website, reporter, writer in florida who wrote the news about the trump about the search. i mean about the fbi search of trump. it wasn't, you know, the new york times, it wasn't a p. and it wasn't even the miami paper and so forth. so anyway, it's it's very important i mean, people need to point. do their own research locally and there are places to do that. i mean, generally what a political scientist, which i would say about the question is, senate races can separate themselves from a national trend. barbara sort of alluded to this earlier in a way that house races can't i mean, people just don't know house race, especially as an open seat. they don't know a challenger in the house race. they don't have the money to advertise if it's near a big city and they have to buy the whole media thing. there has changed a little bit of digital, but not totally. uh and if the senators incumbent, they probably know him, he's been there six years, you know, being having press conferences about how he's delivering infrastructure for that state. even if he voted against the bill and they see him the house person just has a much tougher time. getting, you know, gets a little bit swamped by the national and statewide news and trends. so typically, and this is historically true in 2010 when there was a massive wave, it swept the house, uh, from democratic to republican and a massive number of seats. but the democrats held held on in the senate. partly because senators can distinguish themselves more from their states. it really is more nationalized and polarized. that has been true in the senate. i think 26 states had senators. half the states had it really is more nationalized and polarized. that has been true in the senate. i think 26 states had senators. half the states had democratic delegations and half had republican. now i think the numbers are 44 states have senators from one party. only six states have one of each. what that does to our politics, it just changes the whole flavor of what politics is like and what politics is like in the united states senate. the polarization has had a fundamental effect on our politics. it has trended that way in senate races. could beck change a little bit this cycle? i kind of think it could little bit. the senate has gotten more like the house with election results over the last 20 or 30 years. >> i appreciate that perspective. going to go to another student question. but i'm going to direct this question at first and would love other people's comments to catherine. you have served on the board of the national abortion rights action league. what happened with roe and the supreme court. but then what happened with the vote in kansas? right, i mean, you see this, you know, that had a big, what are these both going to have as an impact. what is the impact and what you see especially with your experience working with an organization that's dedicated to looking at a state-by-state? >> yeah, i mean, i hate to say it, but we told people this was gonna happen for 30 years in every election cycle. we said the at gabriel and emily's list and planned parenthood, listen like this is the supreme court's on the line and when the supreme court goes, so does roe v. wade. i mean the chicken was the sky was falling, we told everybody and nobody believed us. i truly don't think people believed us until the decision was leaked. i have seen more money flowing into third party groups and independent expenditures on both sides, probably than never before. i believe kansas is a harbinger only for the fact that we're about to have 50 state laws um and 50 different state policies. there's no national momentum for, especially even with even if we retain that, even if democrats retain the senate and it's a narrow, a much more narrow majority in the house, there's this is a 50 year strategy. we're back to rebuilding this from a federal level level. and so there's a lot of work being done to figure out the eyes for -- that ties for republican candidates right now, two different aspects of different personal aspects, business foibles missteps, all that kind of stuff. and also tying that to their votes on abortion rates in this country. i just think that kansas was a great example of community based organizing, community based. i mean it was so under the radar, if people, if any political prognosticator had said that that was going to turn out that way, i would have just said you have no idea. because it was under the radar, it was locally driven. it probably means that we have 50 state policies, um 50 state ballot initiatives and we are going to have this fight now um to protect the lives and health of women around this country for another 50 years. i do think that the plus side for kansas, especially for democrats in this world is local organizing, local community, empowering local organizations, works. you don't have to run this from a suite in washington dc. turn the money over to the states, turn the money over to the people who know the community's turn the money over to the people who have the faith and trust of their next door neighbor and will be listened to. and maybe that helps turn the tide because that's what worked in kansas. >> anybody else on the those issues? one of the issues that i think strategically, people want to is is there evidence or enough evidence that trump backed candidates are turning off more moderate republicans? i don't know if we've seen anything anybody reporting on that. are these candidates that making it through the primary, do they win in a general election with more moderate republicans and independents? >> i think that's the problem why you're seeing the problem in the senate with those key races? doug ducey running in the senate against mark kelly, i think it would be far more competitive and probably advantage republicans. rob portman would've been sailing to re election and, you know, or a portman like candidate. so, i think the evidence is very, very much in the senate races. i think with the redistricting, a lot of the states that some of the seats that may have been closer before aren't as close as they were, but, and i think maybe with kansas as an example as others, you know, when you have too extreme, you can go right off the cliff, you know, you can be, well, i can be with glenn youngkin is my friend. i voted for him. i'm not voting for election deniers, so, you know, so in virginia, who replaced denver reblooming? i think for a lot of republicans, i think you see that evidence in the know, unfortunately, that district got a little bit more republican, so it's not a problem for bob good, but the quality that's gonna make next year, you're gonna have a lot more marjorie, greene's a lot more crazy people, you know, like miller from illinois, beat out rocky, um, rodney davis, sensible, pretty mainstream guy. so we got a kook instead, you know, we got downgrades and a lot of these seats. but that means when you're the republican leadership and you need to have a budget passed, you need to have something done, you can't shut down the government all the time. you have nobody to go to anymore. and then if, say you have, like an elise stefanik who's already running for vice president, you know, with trump, she's gonna have to say no to everything. so then you're going to get nothing done in the house and have all these extreme, when we were there, the freedom caucus is dominated, you're going to have more of those types there. i mean, if donald trump calls up harriet hagman and says, hey, mike lindell here, and he wants to have a hearing on this, you know, they're going to have to go get in the clown car with mike lindell in trump. a real problem to manage in a caucus. >>'s democracy on the ballot? this is the first election after, you know, the the attack on the capitol on january six. >> i would think so, and the more we talk about january 6th closer to the elections and the more development there is, and like i said, if the department of justice gets involved, i think that would definitely play a major role in in the elections for sure, and people will vote, like we've seen it, we've seen it, we saw it in the primaries where january 6th was a talking point for the media for the candidates, for the voters, and they definitely went to the ballots thinking about january 6th and how those candidates thought are reacting to it, and i also want to take it back and kind of flip the moderate democrats and how they many and and this is happening. i've seen it happen along the us border with many districts. they're having turned um turning republican and those moderate or liberal democrats who would have easily won those races are now having to turn more moderate democrats and more right winning to be able to stay to stay in the race. i'm thinking of representative gonzalez, for example, who even had to switch districts because he knew that he could no longer hold his district and the previous district that he had. so he's running another district altogether trying to survive there. so it's not only the republicans, crazy republicans turning off moderate republicans, but also liberal democrats going to the right to be able to survive the midterm elections. and really knowing that if they don't do that, the their, you know, their lives and and their house seats are at stake. well, >> well, it's interesting too, because you bring up this is a redistricting, you know, election as well. we have members running against members in certain districts there, there's been an influence about how are they these being drawn that will affect the long term. what are see there? >> i think the consensus is that the district registering solidified republican democratic districts as opposed to throwing more up in the air, which has not always been the case. we'll see what new york has a kind of colorful race with to a long term incumbent democrats next week. some of them got knocked off and some of them are in tougher races because the districts isn't entirely people who voted for. the reason a change, redistricting changes the partisan leans of different districts and be people sort of forget this. incumbents sometimes have to run in districts where they only had half of before two thirds, one third, and then a lot of the voters aren't their voters, so to speak and voted for them before and they lose the advantage of incumbency for the new voters, so to speak. and this is happening to me, i'm not in the same district, i was before the redistricting. you know, this kind and this is a big challenge for allison spanberger, let's abigail spanberger here in virginia democrat who is running in a district where 80% of her voters aren't people who voted for before, so she has to spend a lot of money reintroducing herself, which normally if you're an incumbent you'd spend just kind of taking credit for things and then attacking your extreme opponents. i think on the whole, people are a little too obsessed with gerrymandering and redistricting. i'm not happy about gerrymandering would prefer neutral commissions and so forth. but it doesn't explain quite as much of the changes in our politics as you would think, since the senate hasn't been gerrymandering in 60 years and it hasn't changed the state lines have not changed. so a lot of it is d deeper socio economic things and media nationalization polarization and so forth. >> well, it's interesting, i did not think of it from the senate perspective. we talked to congressman will hurd. his point was we are solidifying these d. n. r. districts, there's less competitive districts and this is why we're getting these challenges, you know, in elections, whether it is vote turnout, whether it's the candidates that are coming through the primary, but what do you, i can't even remember the number of competitive districts we had when we were there. you know. what are your thoughts on that? i think he was pretty serious about this is why we are where we are because there is not just as much competition. >> on the house side, we're looking at a playing field that's really fighting over about 25 seats. it is pretty precarious. if you look at some of the models from last month, you know, the prediction of 230 republican seats after election day 2, 205 democrats were gonna, you know, the idea that we would lose that many seats and it's all playing out in those 2025 maybe 30 districts and all playing out with, you know, localized agendas, localized pieces, some national stuff, i definitely think, you know, there's some question, but you know, i don't, i mean this is really a question for, you know, janet and barbara and bill like that the intensity of the trump vote is what's so scary, right? we all think maybe they're a little nutty or we wish there was a different thing, but like my family are believers. they are in a red district. >> it's overemphasized because because they scream louder. it's probably 20%, which means it's a big part of the republican party. if you're 20% of the country who believes this stuff, the nuts, you know, a big cancer on the republican party. they are voting no matter what. so the idea that whatever new happens between now and november changes that they're voting, i think the unknowns are what happens to get the democrat vote are coming out and what candidates out there are genuinely good candidates. >> i tend to be a pessimist and think that we are actually a country like sort of governed by the tyranny of the vocal minority, not the silent majority. the suppression of voters whether, you know, direct the idea that, you know, people our -- are disenchanted, so they do not vote. i definitely think that we probably provide too much over emphasis to these super loud, but at the same time they are on both sides. the people that heavily invested on the left will come out and, on the hot side too. we have 25, 30 seats that we're gonna play in on the house side. both parties pretty dramatically and the intensity by which we play and what that does in terms of our people mobilized? >> the news cycles in the next 82 days. when you're in these 82 days -- going back to 2016. i opposed donald trump. i assumed he would lose and i would lose. what changed was instead of the news cycle every day being when thank you jim comey, he comes out and with hillary clinton stuff at the end of october um, that changed the new cycle. hillary blames the fbi for losing. donald trump blames the fbi for losing. i think they are both wrong. i think they are both lousy candidates and they just happened to lose. but when you're in these very precarious situations with kind of a lot of bad candidates, i guess this cycle for the next 82 days, is more precarious for republicans than it is for democrats. it is going to be harder for republicans and swing seats than democrats. >> i think that is right. politics and history is very more contingent than people think and more path dependent if you want to use a social science term. i do think actually hillary ran a primary campaign, but probably wins without jim comey. jim comey makes a slightly random decision that he has to make this letter public in october 28 because he got attacked for, you know, making other things, doing other things and i agree with barbara the underlying and should have been had by eight points, so it shouldn't have mattered. but still it did matter in the real world. it was a very big deal that that the republicans picked up 12 how seats in 2020. people like me were wanted to say, trump's disaster, trump's disaster. you got trump at the top of the ticket, you're finished, you cannot win anything. they eventually lose georgia, but on election night they are up in the senate. it was very hard afterwards for people like me to make the case, honestly, and it would have been honest to say trump has just destroyed the republican party, really. and they've recruited even more women and minorities. it's a big mistake for anti trump people to say inevitably it is all going to fail. i think ultimately, i do think republicans will get punished this year for various things and democrats will outperform the traditional midyear election. if republicans had not lost 10 seats, which is totally than what people expected. everyone ridiculed trump for saying we're gonna win the house gained house seats and whatever, he did not quite when it but they came close. if republicans lose 10 house seats in 2020 and lose a couple of these senate seats, they thought were in play that they end up that ended up reverting at the end. i think the effect of january six is totally different. i don't think kevin mccarthy, i don't think they rallied it. they did not think republicans in the house do not think donald trump is a disaster for them. kevin mccarthy is 3 to 1 odds to become speaker of the house in 2022. and they're probably going to reelect republican governors will become more and more trumpy and much trumpy er, than their predecessors. one of the biggest things students i think people really need to think hard about is, i mean, i hope there's a political price to be paid. until there's a much more evident political price to be paid for being a trumpy republican and it's t just in rather few swing districts, but it is across the nation. i think very hard to change the party now. i think maybe pennsylvania and ohio and wisconsin and michigan this year will make a big difference. and that will be an interesting question. does it affect the presidential, you know, raises in 23 4 doesn't really strengthen those on the republican side, who said we can't do trump again? it is an underreported fact that republicans felt ok about their own party in 2021. half of them work happy to get rid of trump. i think this was kippered's point -- katherine's point. >> well, listen, we i'm cognizant of time to hear, i we've covered policy, we've covered politics. am going to go to predictions. i would love to ask for all of you and i'll start with you janet, like, can you envision, what does, what does the congress look like after november 8 jack --? what is going to happen at the start of a major presidential election in 2024? >> i think we've all failed at that recently. i will regroup after november 8. i think the house goes to republicans, the senate holds. >> let's go to you next barbara. >> i think the senate stays democrat, down two or three. those will be trump candidates. how those swing seats are determined may be impacted by some of these bad senate candidates. that could have an impact then how things are going forward. one of the leadership races will be tom amber. he is very popular. he is a more collegial person and less, more practical. elise stefanik now announcing that she is going to run. who wins the race could determine if there's any success at all in the house. >> catherine? i think you are muted. why don't we go to build. -- bill. >> i'll just revert to my original point, i think surprising things will happen and it will be more chaotic than we expect. are we confident that trump doesn't try to depose him with stefanik or somebody else? are we confident that i assume if they lose the house speaker, pelosi steps down as leader and probably just resigns from the house, maybe not if it's really close, but she thinks she could really affect things, but maybe she does. i guess we think hakeem jeffries is next in line, but we're not certain we don't know about that. does mcconnell stay incidentally as minority leader for another maybe he does. i just think the degree of and and right away the question becomes both trump assuming he's running. how strong is he? and does biden run again? which imes kept to bilbao. -- which i am skeptical about. i don't think harris is a lay down to be the nominee as well. >> i keep my money in mitch mcconnell. >> ok. i am writing all these down. >> i think the senate stays in democratic hands, the house is in republican hands, but much more narrowly than many are predicting. we see probably 4 to 5 high profile recount election four or five high profile, not decided on election night races. it will make the landscape of the 2024 election even mourn president did. i also do not think that harris is issuing. -- a shoe in. >> so many factors to determine that. >> to finish it out, what is your advice to all the students on here? there is so much at stake. there is so much going on. there's so many factors. what would you advise them? >> i think regardless of party get involved with candidates that you believe in. people who are principled and that you want to work with. particularly in these 50-50 districts. you can really make a difference in do not be did scourged. -- discouraged. if you are up in pennsylvania, jumped in and there are a lot of races to play in there. you can make a big difference in arizona. engaging in those races and getting election deniers. we can all agree on that. >> like i said, read your local paper, stay on top of your local issues. make sure you read the you know the national news and cnn and the washington post of the world, but really stay on top of your local issues because those will dominate your lives and will have real impact on on your house and households in in the next few years. >> go work on a campaign. i try not to hire anybody who hasn't worked on a political >> zones really matter in the next two years so make sure put in an effort. on cnn and washington was the world stay of those because those will dominate your lives and will have a effect on your house and tells for the nex few years for sure. we are maybe 100 miles from a competitive district. i very much agree about the campaign experience. especially young people, they have opportunities to make a difference, being involved with campaigns. >> we have been able to answer some of the questions from our students. i cannot thank you enough for your time. you are all incredibly busy people. the impact you have made to american university, what you have done so far would have been enough. to come back and do this, you are always welcome on this campus. the institute will ask you again and again to bring your voices to this. we will all get together afterward and i will bring my piece of paper with those predictions. i am sure there will be a lot of discussions about this election. i will close by saying with catherine's point about the farm bill, elections have consequences. these are not just competition for competition's sake. government should be about consensus. we will bring you all back and talk about what is the new landscape and how are we going to navigate that as a country. i appreciate all of you. i look forward to talking to you between now and election day. to everyone on, students are coming back to campus and we are excited to have you here. we have incredible fall programming and will get you more information about the elections. you cannot get better advice from these individuals about how you can have an impact. enjoy the rest of your date and we will be in touch soon. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> coming up today on c-span, california representative katie porter and others. at 4 p.m., medical experts look at how sweden's response to the covid-19 pandemic was different from other countries trying to slow the spread of the virus. those events streaming on the c-span now video app along with a discussion about nuclear energy and how the industry might benefit from legislation recently passed by congress at 11 a.m. eastern. >> c-span is your unfiltered view of government. we are funded by these television companies and more, including media,. >> the world changed in an n instant, but mediacom was ready, because we are built to keep you ahead. >> mediacom supports c-span as a public service, along with these other television providers, giving you a front-row seat to democracy. >> this morning on washington journal, katherine keneally from the institute for strategic dialogue talks about the increase in domestic terror threats
currently head of internal communications asked -- and a former white house correspondent. differing opinions, differing perspectives, differing backgrounds, but the common thread that may be is the most important for all of you is sign institute fellows. i am so appreciative of you joining us again. you are so well-liked and respected, it is great to have you with us today. we are at the precipice of another midterm election. 82 days out. we had in the senate, 14 democratic seats, 21 republican. 32 of the 34 seats were up in 2016. it is amazing how this is the class of the senate we are looking at and what will be the control of that narrow margin. the u.s. house is going to be a big topic of conversation today as all seats are up and several of them are targeted. the primaries have pushed what kind of election we are looking at in terms of gubernatorial races. in the state legislatures, if you can believe, eth chambers in 46 states are up. all of these individuals voting soon to determine what our leaders to -- leadership structure is. we want to hear your perspectives. i want to encourage anybody who is joining us today to ask questions throughout. we are not waiting until the end. if you have questions specifically as the conversation is going. to my colleagues, this is a conversation. we will ask questions and if you want to have follow-ups between individuals and peers, let's talk this through. i guess the first thing i would like to do is give you a few minutes to get a general perspective of what you are paying attention to. we would love to start with you, barbara. as somebody who has been in the seat, and many members who are up for reelection, what are you thinking? what are you focused on? >> we know the majority -- majorities are made in swing states. while the focus has largely been on primaries to date -- republicans trump vengeance or trump trying to pick extreme election deniers, we now move into the fall where being a trump extremist is less valuable. particularly in these swing states. as i look at it, you can get a primary but if you are christine o'donnell or richard murdoch or todd akin, republicans who lost in republican states. winning the nomination did not make them a senator. we already have candidates like dr. oz who has been failing spectacularly. he is a trump-endorsed first-time candidate, not even living in pennsylvania. john fetterman, his liberal opponent has trolled him excessively for not being pennsylvanian. so he is failing in the polls, he is failing in money. blake masters in arizona and j.d. vance are both candidates that peter thiel, a trump millionaire, decided he wants to buy. these are two he has brought in -- retail candidates. mcmaster is double digits down. very extreme candidate -- talk about that and i think mark kelly is sitting on the kind of money he is, a lot happier these days. although the whole ticket in arizona is an election denying ticket, which i oppose. j.d. vance. tim robbins doing much better than expected. herschel walker. donald trump, who lost, the gift that keeps on giving for georgia democrats. rachel record now about his former wife -- [indiscernible] -- a terrible candidate. on the state front, brad raffensperger and governor kemp. there's four seats there that are not looking great. [no audio] [please stand by] >> people were talking about the huge red blowout. the number one reason is instead of having your number one issue being the economy, biden's poor ratings, trump is back in the front seat, driving the clown car for summary republicans. if you are in a swing state, that is a nightmare. i have been in a swing state when trump was in power and it didn't matter what your numbers were. trump's numbers. after the 2018 election but whatever trump's negative numbers were -- what the democrats got. almost to a tee. >> right. >> that was the gift that keeps on giving. the policies are doing better, you have seen democrat candidates outrun biden's numbers largely because of this reappearance of trump. the fact that while trump's problems are increasing -- liz cheney -- vengeance tour -- increasing legal problems. [indiscernible] trump does very poorly in court where truth and facts matter. he is now entering the factual, legal portion of his problems. today, he had guilty pleas from his lawyer. i expect see indictments, lawyers and people coming soon and perhaps even for trump himself. that is going to have an impact in swing districts. much more so than the senate -- todd young in indiana. he's out running around talking about trump -- chips act, infrastructure bill, compromise. [indiscernible] he is a great republican candidate. for a house republican [indiscernible] [indiscernible] -- everything stupid trump does. if the democrats are not totally asleep, that is going to be wrapped around your neck. because that is how house republicans play. cheney is going to be opposing election deniers. and then you have abortion looming, particularly in michigan. i do not think the gubernatorial candidate will do well. peter meyer, if the democrats are not totally asleep committee should be able to take him out. other candidates like that who won these swing districts are going to be big money sucks. -- because they have less money because donald trump is sucking all the money. you heard how he -- all this money, that is money that is not going to republican candidates. people protesting in mar-a-lago are not getting a single vote in a swing district. -- reappearing at this time is -- both financially and though twice to the -- house as well as the senate. >> as always, you gave a really great overview. i have to say, if you look at past lives, we've got a battle amongst research directors. you led the research team for president bush's campaign in 2000. i first met catherine miller, and everyone knows her so well for her work in food policy and everything she has done, but she also wore the head of research director at the d triple c where editor -- where i met her. we are going to have you go next and give you an overview. >> i don't have much to disagree with. [laughter] >> we are already building consensus. >> jokingly, i say we should all be eating crudites and not with sulci. the ability for democrats to capitalize on some of foibles of the republican party and the missteps, the personal problems, the challenges and the ties to an extremist arm that sometimes does not believe the world is round. it is, i think, going to pay dividends. that's to say on the senate side, we are always looking at voter protection efforts. i also designed the voter protection efforts for dccc for several cycles. we will look at policy conversations and think it is going well. and there are always efforts to prevent people from voting legitimately. we saw the strengths of the indigenous population in alaska, a democrat made that runoff. that was largely on the strength of a native population. we can look optimistically at the changing momentum for democrats, but we have to keep a strong eye, especially in those roles based on native and indigenous population voter suppression efforts and make sure that is a priority at the committee right now. and at the white house. on the house side, a little more pessimistic. going all the way back precolonial, all politics is local. i look at some of these places i cannot imagine voting for some of these candidates. yet, it is happening. i am from rural north florida. republicans in the first district invited -- to speak at the high school like, come, talk to us. why would you bring this into a high school? i think the thing that i watched as a policy person, especially related to food and as we move into farm bill season where we're going to write the largest piece of legislation that employs farmers and feeds americans who controls the house and senate agriculture committees. there's no bigger question right now in my mind. and so i'm looking at places like georgia. i'm looking at places like michigan. i'm looking at places like arizona. mark kelly, the senate race and the house races there. i'm looking to see what happens. chuck grassley is gonna hang on, you know, with dear life to that senate seat. but you know what iowa and the redistricting in iowa means for the houses house races there. i think the next 82 days are going to be really interesting. we always say that, but there's a lot at play here and it is national momentum related to issues. the challenge is localized efforts and then we're really gonna have to pay attention to voter suppression and voter protection efforts across the country. and then we should all be voting on the issues that we care about. and we see this with, you know, abortion taking a front row on the supreme court. they're really motivated. a lot of voters on the democratic side and on the republican side. so issues are going to take a play in this in this election cycle, but wow, it's going to be a ride. >> yeah. and i think in a great way, katherine, you bring up elections have consequences. right? so many of the decisions that we're making in november affect decisions that will be happening at the beginning of the year around policy. i'm gonna go to you now, bill, because i think when i started this job, if any of my democratic friends knew that one of my favorite things is to go have coffee with you at compass coffee, they'd be shocked. but it is. and i've learned a lot from you. so i really want to know your perspective. you've been writing certainly a lot about the elections and what you're seeing, but you've also a veteran of these campaigns and looking from different perspectives. what are you seeing and what is really standing out to you? >> well, thanks, amy. and it's good to be with everyone and i enjoy the coffees too. i myself have always been more open minded and therefore happy to have coffee with sensible democrats. but that's okay. i'm sure it does shock some people. i guess i just pick up maybe on really what katherine sort of implied, but didn't quite say, which is we are really in uncharted waters. and one reason, i think incidentally everyone's like, oh, it was very surprising what's happening in the generic congressional poll because it's so different from biden. well, yeah, but you know, this is not 2010, it's not 2014, it's not 1994. we have had the trump presidency, which was unprecedented in many ways. and i'm not even making a judgment here. i'm just saying analytically empirically, we've not quite gone through this before. two impeachments, never been in politics before, becomes president. everything that happened, of course, we've had a post presidency that's unprecedented with him wanting to stay ahead of the party, staying ahead of the party. being investigated by the fbi, being impeached, but not convicted. the very, very end of his presidency, january 6. i will stress is unprecedented. and the after effects of that very unpredictable. and i'd say the after effects unprecedented in the sense that many of us expected. well, that might be the moment. and finally, the party liberates from trump. and in a sense, we get back to a more normal situation and that didn't happen, which is kind of, we now take that for granted, but it's really if you step back and think, well, what we would have all said on january 7th, it's pretty astonishing. so it's a very astonishing and unpredictable moment. and then roe v wade, a 49 year old precedent that everyone thinks of it originally and so forth, overturned on a purely partisan. let's call it a decision that's handed down by judges entirely appointed by presidents of one party. that was not the case, of course. originally with roe v. wade. 5-4 decision, 6-3 on the judgment because roberts would have sustained the upheld the mississippi law, but would not have overturned roe nationally. so 5-4 on that, three of the five being appointed by trump, one of the most controversial presidents in our history. we have not had this experience. there is zero historical precedent for this. we've had the court be controversial. obviously, in fact, brown was extremely controversial. roe was controversial. republicans ran against the war in court and with some success in the sixties and seventies. but we have just not had an election season where this has been central and it really is an issue. it's not just symbolically interesting. i mean, actual governors are gonna make a difference in michigan and wisconsin and elsewhere as to what the actual laws on the subject that's actual importance to a lot of americans. it's gonna be, you know, so it's not like people, i remember talking to my friends, many of them old friends, pro life friends very much minimizing the alito draft opinion came out in the spring. oh, well, you know what? never, everyone always says it's gonna be a big political issue. there's diehards, especially in the pro life side, it never really matters. it's not gonna affect, just gonna lance the boil, it's gonna settle down. i mean, it could have happened, it could still happen incidentally, four years from now. we could look back and say, well, settle down, we have different laws in different states and so forth. no federal legislation perhaps, but for now it's the boil, it's alive and political issue. and again, so you put all this together and we don't know, i mean, honestly, we don't know, i will say i was early in saying that the fact that biden was unpopular did not necessarily mean there would be a huge republican wave. i've been through these races as we all have, where there is a popular popularity, the president does drive things. and you could argue that that's even more the case with the nationalizing of elections. on the other hand, certainly, senate races can separate and voters are also capable of saying, i'm not crazy about biden. but let's look at the two parties that are competing for control of the senate and the house or what their agendas are and what their leadership is and trump is now as part of a sort of suggested as much on the ballot, at least for now, i'd say is biden. i mean, you know, neither is on the ballot, but therefore let's say figuratively on the ballot. i think i was early and just looking and seeing in the polls that the congressional, the generic congressional ballot that for people who aren't following the stuff obsessively is, you know, opposed to simply ask a national poll. usually who would you prefer controls congress in the next session and the republicans or democrats and that's been pretty close. and the republicans were ahead by three points or so. now democrats have probably a tiny bit ahead, biden managed to sink from -8 to -15 and this year in 2022. i just looked this up the other day and the generic ballot has gone in the other direction by a couple of points. so all the conventional now, maybe it will ultimately work out the way it has in the past. presidents approval dominates. this is a temporary bear market rally for democrats. the house, you can't really separate yourself. there'll be tens of millions of dollars republican ads attaching democratic house candidates to reasonably unpopular president, maybe it'll revert, but maybe it won't, you know, and anyway, but for now, at least we're seeing pretty unprecedented decoupling of presidential in generic. and i'm very dubious of all the conventional wisdom, even that some of these senators as safe as people think or house members? i don't know, we are utterly confident that it's inconceivable that voters in iowa will just decide 87 years old for a six year term is kind of a problem. and incidentally, for all that they, like grassley personally has been to every county 5000 times. you know, he is a vote for, i think at least nominally a vote for a legal national legislation to have very strict restrictions on abortion. i don't know quite what he's certainly pro life and i believe he's probably endorsed that at least nominally. and i don't know, is it crazy that, you know, you can, the state, uh, does have a democratic, has had democrats elected, you know, in modern times. i think grassley probably wins, but, you know, but a lot of these states that people are sort of very cavalier about dismissing people have over, i'll say one thing to students, to things to students, people have over learned a lesson, which is a true lesson of politics is nationalized. politics is polarized, demography is destiny. you can look at the presidential vote in the last couple of cycles to predict every house and senate race. and that has been more true in the last decade or two. that it was true when i first came to washington and there was a huge disconnect between presidential vote and senate and house vote in the olden days. that has gradually been removed because of a million different things going on in the country. economic, sociologically, economically, culturally, geographically, politically, the character of the party's nationalization of elections and media and everything else. these trends continue until they don't continue, right? i think people choose too quick to say, oh florida, that was 2020 republican, inconceivable that democrats would win an election, statewide election, in florida. like really in 2018, which was not ancient history, the democrats came within one point of winning two statewide, the governor and senate races in florida. so, i don't know what's going to happen there, but people are just too quick to assume that trends that have been, have gone in certain states that have moved red or blue in the last four or eight years or just like there forever? and that's why nevada could go the opposite way of where it's been and florida in my opinion, or states like that could go in the opposite direction. when you're in uncharted waters, some of these trends don't necessarily continue in the same direction and students should be, i think they should learn the history and learn the political science and the teaching stuff. and it's usually a pretty good guide until it's not a good guy. but this is any time, it's not gonna be a good guy, it's going to be this year final which just to look ahead of it. i mean, katherine's point about policy, but it's going to be such a crazy year. who knows what that looks like? let's say republicans in the house. and democrats in the senate. what does it look like when they have hearings on hunter biden and try to impeach joe biden. and mccarthy is looking over his shoulder, whatever trump is saying. if mccarthy's even speaker. all these other people who will have been elected or reelected, who are, you know, screaming and yelling that he has to advance this, what do they do? do they pass even nominally restriction on abortion? what does that do nationally? does that republican vote for that? i'm not so sure does the party start to fracture in all kinds of ways that it has in the past in the house? what does biden do biden ran for re election? what does trump do is he already does he announced in the next couple of weeks for reelection and there's so many variable and does trump get indicted. what's the popular reaction to that? it's not gonna be a normal, okay, we've been through this, you know, you lose the house or congress in your first off year and you cut a deal like obama did in 2011 with john boehner or clinton and gingrich did in 1995. and we kind of know what the next two years following the look like and it's interesting and important to work out and there will be a lot of politics as usual. and like katherine says, it's important to work out what the farm bill will look like and that matters who controls each house and the chair the chairs of the relevant committees are. but there could be such craziness and in both parties, especially the republican party? but a lot of uncertainty in the democratic party, especially if biden doesn't run again and all the kind of polarization and the legal investigations and post january 6th committee sort of developments. and liz cheney is a very unusual wildcard. so people should pay close attention but be very open minded, i guess, is the way i would put it about how things are going to play out. >> i think it's it's so important to bring that up because i always caution candidates when i'm talking to them. you lose when you look at when you're running the race and back at you not rather than the race in front of you. sure there's these indicators, there's these things that traditionally we've seen losses in midterms, you know, for the for the presidential party in power, but any one of those things would affect this race and in a unique way, the fact that all these are swirling around is unbelievable. that's why i'm going to go right to you, janet, there's nobody who has like seen it all firsthand during, you know, the trump white house as well and and follow that along as a journalist as somebody who's, you know, definitely covered, trump's impact when he was president? it's interesting in this midterm after post presidency. what impacts you having him love to hear your perspective and also how news is being disseminated? this cycle as well. so welcome, janet, it's good to see you. i can't hear you. so i am wat'g to happen with the january 6th committee and how is that gonna be? where are they going to be right before the elections? are we going to have any news from the department of justice? are we going to have any more investigations? we were talking about all the legal troubles that trump may may incur in the future. and how soon is that future? so all these things we we should be watching closely and candidates should be prepared to to act upon them because honestly, they have to adjust to the new cycle as they see it coming. so, those are news will happen up until the last minute and we will react and voters do react to to what happens as we saw specifically. i'm thinking of hillary clinton and the emails and and everything that happened in the last election. so we know that the prettiest election, so we definitely need to watch. and i think one thing, if i if i had to say for journalists, one thing that we also pay attention to is the local races, because historically, we know that if we do have a link on session, as it seems that it will be for the next two years, local elections have real consequences and very consequential in what happens in the next two years in our country. so, local laws will happen. whoever gets elected and the legislatures will kind of shape those states for the next two years and for many, many years ahead, because those laws could have real, you know, consequences in the population there and then those people get elected to congress at a later time and so on and so forth. so definitely keeping a very, very close eye into what happens in the states. as we look at how that shapes the next two years of applause with our country and one race that i'm really interested in just because there is an anchor involved in the katie hubs in arizona, which is really wild. as you guys, know, i used to work in arizona. i was a colleague on kari lake. we didn't work at the same station, but seeing her now possibly would, could win the gubernatorial race in arizona would be really crazy in my mind, but really while it really possible, so that comes to show you that anything could happen in this upcoming elections. and we should be as bill said, very open minded that, that things are not going to be conventional, that things are just gonna switch and back and forth. we kind of can see the picture on the wall and how things may shape up. but i think we hold it until the last minute, just like we did with the trump election. >> here's a wild card that people are talking about. carrie lake loses by one point, let's just say in arizona and it's a little uncertain what election because they have a lot of of course their vote is very highly early and by mail. and so we're not sure that you don't know until does carry. like just accept that. does she not go on tv tuesday night and say it's being stolen? does she have no support for that in the arizona legislature? does she have no support for that among certain election officials in some of the counties in arizona and some of them refused to certify the degree of chaos we could have. and i say this with no pleasure because this would be very bad obviously for the country. but people focused and i focused a lot and i think a lot of people have focused on 2020 for and how do we fix the electoral college kind of, you know, problems and ways to build strengthen those guard rails against 2020 happening again from november 3rd to january 6th, so to speak. but in 2022 we could have this kind of thing happening now. i think ultimately, maybe, you know, governor ducey doesn't doesn't put up with it. and then the election secretary of state doesn't put up with it and so forth. but what if a republican has won? the secretary of state in the end and the incumbent secretary of state says no, but the person who just got elected says no, i think gary lakes right, we need to have about who knows what right? a new accounting and audits and fraud. it's i mean, i think i mentioned that this lake is so particularly extreme on this, but we could have much more chaos than we're used to. i say this with no pleasure, you know, on november nine and in the following weeks and even months after the election. >> that's one of the things about these republican candidates that i actually think democrats are ignoring to their detriment. these are largely unvetted candidates, usually in a normal republican process. republicans would bet each other and you find out what's wrong with them. you know all of dr oz problems, not in the general. that has not happened with a lot of these candidates because everyone was just vying for trump's attention. democrats should be looking at, i mean, it's a little late in the game to get enough, but i think there's going to be a lot of the unknowns of the surprises that are going to be right there in front of us that people never that republicans didn't go after. it has been the best example of doing that. i have to say it was negligent in not finding all these things in the fetterman campaign because they were spending millions of dollars. they were all trying to just say i'm more trump, i'm more trump who has been like a d horror movie person with selena is out there and in the extreme things she had said. so these candidates that are now being vetted in primetime general are going to make things much more uncertain. and i think the house races, the crowds are kind of ignoring that in many cases, assuming like, oh, somebody already checked that out and given that i'm from virginia where i didn't find, you know, the, remember the uh kkk and blackface picture until after the election to anybody out there. you know, if you're not doing your basic bread and butter stuff right now, shame on you because candidates that have come up in the trump world are totally unvetted. they're not just extreme and bad candidates. they are vetted personally and that is not good. >> i don't know if you had something to add, is this another place that you're in in consensus with with barbara here? >> yeah, and i want to let you i think there's two things, i in here too. mean, i think arizona is actually the state that i am going to pay in somewhat the most attention to in this cycle. you have the competitive senate race. i mean, mark kelly, there's so much money going in there to protect that seat. on the democratic side, you've got open seats on the house side, you've got the governor's race and the secretary of state and you have eggs exactly what bill said, which is election deniers. and you also have a native population, the navajo nation, they're delivered 12 to 13% of biden's vote in the presidential race. and that is going to be a place where people are going to try and discredit that vote. they're going to try and prevent that vote. and so that is going to play right into the election denier. so i think, you know, if this is, i don't even think it's one point, i think she'd go goes on if it is, if it's three or five points, she goes on and says it's all bs right. and she contests it just because it is so right there. i think barbra's absolutely right on the side that i wish that, you know more, we're doing opposition research in that bread and better way i am the person who's hugely skeptical about whether voters care about that anymore, we've lived through two impeachments. we've lived through multiple impeachments all the way back to the clinton era, we've lived through fraud, financial fraud. we've lived through, you know, we've lived through so much from a personal foible perspective that i do, i do question or ask the question about whether american voters really just like, sure you're gonna tell me that and i'm gonna tell you he's a nice guy or sure you're gonna tell me that, but i'm gonna tell you, i go to church with her. so, you know, i wish they were doing it. um, and i think it does take something like finding a candidate in blackface to to break through that, which is unfortunate. letterman's doing that basic stuff. yeah, but he's a trump person. he's just saying he's odd, he's kooky stuff and he owns 12 houses. >> i certainly think that i just, you know, there's some question in my mind, but i think, you know, this is, as bill said, this is unprecedented. everybody should be doing, you know, the committees and the voters and students should be doing everything they can to sort of organize and get involved because this is, wow. >> i just wanted to add to that point that this is where i think local journalism is so important in this day and age because yes, well, people may not be swayed or persuaded as much anymore. i think it's up to those local reporters to do that digging, opposition research, but to really go after those unvetted candidates to really do the homework to put it in front of the readers and for the readers to decide right, but you have to be able to get them in the press. and yes, there's a lot of people that are not being vetted and there is a lot of suffering right now with local newspapers and local stations not having the resources to do this. but it's in i think if one advice for the students would be, is to go and read your local newspaper every day and really get to know those candidates and have your local reporters go after them and press your your local tv stations to do more in terms of doing that vetting if nobody else's. >> it's interesting because i think so many candidates are probably looking for ways to localize the race. either they're a democrat and don't want to necessarily follow some of the biden numbers or there's concerns there. i think the liz cheney race is a good example of a nationalized race and i looked on websites did research there. i didn't see, you know, her opponent talking that much about what she's gonna do for wyoming or those wyoming issues. it was such a nationalized race. i will one of our our students had a question. i'll go to you on this because it's something you brought up about whether or not the dems are, looking better, you know, in the senate's right now. he wants to know if they are looking better, you know, in the first democratic senate candidates, how and will this translate to house races? and on the local races janet as you mentioned, it's it's a good question. >> i mean very briefly, just on the point you made which is reporting. i think we all talk about what's caused the current moment, you know, and there are a million different things, as i say, sociological, cultural media, social media, but i do think the decline of the local dress which is mostly an economically driven thing. but it has to do with obviously the internet and the fact that people don't need it the way they used to has really had a big effect on our politics and it is underrated. there's a million things that you could talk about that have had a big effect and they all have, you know, it's like you cannot disentangle them. they all happened at the same time, but the decline of the local press now, there are local websites, i mean it was a local, i'm not mistaken, it was a web, it was a website, reporter, writer in florida who wrote the news about the trump about the search. i mean about the fbi search of trump. it wasn't, you know, the new york times, it wasn't a p. and it wasn't even the miami paper and so forth. so anyway, it's it's very important i mean, people need to point. do their own research locally and there are places to do that. i mean, generally what a political scientist, which i would say about the question is, senate races can separate themselves from a national trend. barbara sort of alluded to this earlier in a way that house races can't i mean, people just don't know house race, especially as an open seat. they don't know a challenger in the house race. they don't have the money to advertise if it's near a big city and they have to buy the whole media thing. there has changed a little bit of digital, but not totally. uh and if the senators incumbent, they probably know him, he's been there six years, you know, being having press conferences about how he's delivering infrastructure for that state. even if he voted against the bill and they see him the house person just has a much tougher time. getting, you know, gets a little bit swamped by the national and statewide news and trends. so typically, and this is historically true in 2010 when there was a massive wave, it swept the house, uh, from democratic to republican and a massive number of seats. but the democrats held held on in the senate. partly because senators can distinguish themselves more from their states. it really is more nationalized and polarized. that has been true in the senate. i think 26 states had senators. half the states had democratic delegations and half had republican. now i think the numbers are 44 states have senators from one party. only six states have one of each. what that does to our politics, it just changes the whole flavor of what politics is like and what politics is like in the united states senate. the polarization has had a fundamental effect on our politics. it has trended that way in senate races. could beck change a little bit this cycle? i kind of think it could little bit. the senate has gotten more like the house with election results over the last 20 or 30 years. >> i appreciate that perspective. going to go to another student question. but i'm going to direct this question at first and would love other people's comments to catherine. you have served on the board of the national abortion rights action league. what happened with roe and the supreme court. but then what happened with the vote in kansas? right, i mean, you see this, you know, that had a big, what are these both going to have as an impact. what is the impact and what you see especially with your experience working with an organization that's dedicated to looking at a state-by-state? >> yeah, i mean, i hate to say it, but we told people this was gonna happen for 30 years in every election cycle. we said the at gabriel and emily's list and planned parenthood, listen like this is the supreme court's on the line and when the supreme court goes, so does roe v. wade. i mean the chicken was the sky was falling, we told everybody and nobody believed us. i truly don't think people believed us until the decision was leaked. i have seen more money flowing into third party groups and independent expenditures on both sides, probably than never before. i believe kansas is a harbinger only for the fact that we're about to have 50 state laws um and 50 different state policies. there's no national momentum for, especially even with even if we retain that, even if democrats retain the senate and it's a narrow, a much more narrow majority in the house, there's this is a 50 year strategy. we're back to rebuilding this from a federal level level. and so there's a lot of work being done to figure out the eyes for -- that ties for republican candidates right now, two different aspects of different personal aspects, business foibles missteps, all that kind of stuff. and also tying that to their votes on abortion rates in this country. i just think that kansas was a great example of community based organizing, community based. i mean it was so under the radar, if people, if any political prognosticator had said that that was going to turn out that way, i would have just said you have no idea. because it was under the radar, it was locally driven. it probably means that we have 50 state policies, um 50 state ballot initiatives and we are going to have this fight now um to protect the lives and health of women around this country for another 50 years. i do think that the plus side for kansas, especially for democrats in this world is local organizing, local community, empowering local organizations, works. you don't have to run this from a suite in washington dc. turn the money over to the states, turn the money over to the people who know the community's turn the money over to the people who have the faith and trust of their next door neighbor and will be listened to. and maybe that helps turn the tide because that's what worked in kansas. >> anybody else on the those issues? one of the issues that i think strategically, people want to is is there evidence or enough evidence that trump backed candidates are turning off more moderate republicans? i don't know if we've seen anything anybody reporting on that. are these candidates that making it through the primary, do they win in a general election with more moderate republicans and independents? >> i think that's the problem why you're seeing the problem in the senate with those key races? doug ducey running in the senate against mark kelly, i think it would be far more competitive and probably advantage republicans. rob portman would've been sailing to re election and, you know, or a portman like candidate. so, i think the evidence is very, very much in the senate races. i think with the redistricting, a lot of the states that some of the seats that may have been closer before aren't as close as they were, but, and i think maybe with kansas as an example as others, you know, when you have too extreme, you can go right off the cliff, you know, you can be, well, i can be with glenn youngkin is my friend. i voted for him. i'm not voting for election deniers, so, you know, so in virginia, who replaced denver reblooming? i think for a lot of republicans, i think you see that evidence in the know, unfortunately, that district got a little bit more republican, so it's not a problem for bob good, but the quality that's gonna make next year, you're gonna have a lot more marjorie, greene's a lot more crazy people, you know, like miller from illinois, beat out rocky, um, rodney davis, sensible, pretty mainstream guy. so we got a kook instead, you know, we got downgrades and a lot of these seats. but that means when you're the republican leadership and you need to have a budget passed, you need to have something done, you can't shut down the government all the time. you have nobody to go to anymore. and then if, say you have, like an elise stefanik who's already running for vice president, you know, with trump, she's gonna have to say no to everything. so then you're going to get nothing done in the house and have all these extreme, when we were there, the freedom caucus is dominated, you're going to have more of those types there. i mean, if donald trump calls up harriet hagman and says, hey, mike lindell here, and he wants to have a hearing on this, you know, they're going to have to go get in the clown car with mike lindell in trump. a real problem to manage in a caucus. >>'s democracy on the ballot? this is the first election after, you know, the the attack on the capitol on january six. >> i would think so, and the more we talk about january 6th closer to the elections and the more development there is, and like i said, if the department of justice gets involved, i think that would definitely play a major role in in the elections for sure, and people will vote, like we've seen it, we've seen it, we saw it in the primaries where january 6th was a talking point for the media for the candidates, for the voters, and they definitely went to the ballots thinking about january 6th and how those candidates thought are reacting to it, and i also want to take it back and kind of flip the moderate democrats and how they many and and this is happening. i've seen it happen along the us border with many districts. they're having turned um turning republican and those moderate or liberal democrats who would have easily won those races are now having to turn more moderate democrats and more right winning to be able to stay to stay in the race. i'm thinking of representative gonzalez, for example, who even had to switch districts because he knew that he could no longer hold his district and the previous district that he had. so he's running another district altogether trying to survive there. so it's not only the republicans, crazy republicans turning off moderate republicans, but also liberal democrats going to the right to be able to survive the midterm elections. and really knowing that if they don't do that, the their, you know, their lives and and their house seats are at stake. well, >> well, it's interesting too, because you bring up this is a redistricting, you know, election as well. we have members running against members in certain districts there, there's been an influence about how are they these being drawn that will affect the long term. what are see there? >> i think the consensus is that the district registering solidified republican democratic districts as opposed to throwing more up in the air, which has not always been the case. we'll see what new york has a kind of colorful race with to a long term incumbent democrats next week. some of them got knocked off and some of them are in tougher races because the districts isn't entirely people who voted for. the reason a change, redistricting changes the partisan leans of different districts and be people sort of forget this. incumbents sometimes have to run in districts where they only had half of before two thirds, one third, and then a lot of the voters aren't their voters, so to speak and voted for them before and they lose the advantage of incumbency for the new voters, so to speak. and this is happening to me, i'm not in the same district, i was before the redistricting. you know, this kind and this is a big challenge for allison spanberger, let's abigail spanberger here in virginia democrat who is running in a district where 80% of her voters aren't people who voted for before, so she has to spend a lot of money reintroducing herself, which normally if you're an incumbent you'd spend just kind of taking credit for things and then attacking your extreme opponents. i think on the whole, people are a little too obsessed with gerrymandering and redistricting. i'm not happy about gerrymandering would prefer neutral commissions and so forth. but it doesn't explain quite as much of the changes in our politics as you would think, since the senate hasn't been gerrymandering in 60 years and it hasn't changed the state lines have not changed. so a lot of it is d deeper socio economic things and media nationalization polarization and so forth. >> well, it's interesting, i did not think of it from the senate perspective. we talked to congressman will hurd. his point was we are solidifying these d. n. r. districts, there's less competitive districts and this is why we're getting these challenges, you know, in elections, whether it is vote turnout, whether it's the candidates that are coming through the primary, but what do you, i can't even remember the number of competitive districts we had when we were there. you know. what are your thoughts on that? i think he was pretty serious about this is why we are where we are because there is not just as much competition. >> on the house side, we're looking at a playing field that's really fighting over about 25 seats. it is pretty precarious. if you look at some of the models from last month, you know, the prediction of 230 republican seats after election day 2, 205 democrats were gonna, you know, the idea that we would lose that many seats and it's all playing out in those 2025 maybe 30 districts and all playing out with, you know, localized agendas, localized pieces, some national stuff, i definitely think, you know, there's some question, but you know, i don't, i mean this is really a question for, you know, janet and barbara and bill like that the intensity of the trump vote is what's so scary, right? we all think maybe they're a little nutty or we wish there was a different thing, but like my family are believers. they are in a red district. >> it's overemphasized because because they scream louder. it's probably 20%, which means it's a big part of the republican party. if you're 20% of the country who believes this stuff, the nuts, you know, a big cancer on the republican party. they are voting no matter what. so the idea that whatever new happens between now and november changes that they're voting, i think the unknowns are what happens to get the democrat vote are coming out and what candidates out there are genuinely good candidates. >> i tend to be a pessimist and think that we are actually a country like sort of governed by the tyranny of the vocal minority, not the silent majority. the suppression of voters whether, you know, direct the idea that, you know, people our -- are disenchanted, so they do not vote. i definitely think that we probably provide too much over emphasis to these super loud, but at the same time they are on both sides. the people that heavily invested on the left will come out and, on the hot side too. we have 25, 30 seats that we're gonna play in on the house side. both parties pretty dramatically and the intensity by which we play and what that does in terms of our people mobilized? >> the news cycles in the next 82 days. when you're in these 82 days -- going back to 2016. i opposed donald trump. i assumed he would lose and i would lose. what changed was instead of the news cycle every day being when thank you jim comey, he comes out and with hillary clinton stuff at the end of october um, that changed the new cycle. hillary blames the fbi for losing. donald trump blames the fbi for losing. i think they are both wrong. i think they are both lousy candidates and they just happened to lose. but when you're in these very precarious situations with kind of a lot of bad candidates, i guess this cycle for the next 82 days, is more precarious for republicans than it is for democrats. it is going to be harder for republicans and swing seats than democrats. >> i think that is right. politics and history is very more contingent than people think and more path dependent if you want to use a social science term. i do think actually hillary ran a primary campaign, but probably wins without jim comey. jim comey makes a slightly random decision that he has to make this letter public in october 28 because he got attacked for, you know, making other things, doing other things and i agree with barbara the underlying and should have been had by eight points, so it shouldn't have mattered. but still it did matter in the real world. it was a very big deal that that the republicans picked up 12 how seats in 2020. people like me were wanted to say, trump's disaster, trump's disaster. you got trump at the top of the ticket, you're finished, you cannot win anything. they eventually lose georgia, but on election night they are up in the senate. it was very hard afterwards for people like me to make the case, honestly, and it would have been honest to say trump has just destroyed the republican party, really. and they've recruited even more women and minorities. it's a big mistake for anti trump people to say inevitably it is all going to fail. i think ultimately, i do think republicans will get punished this year for various things and democrats will outperform the traditional midyear election. if republicans had not lost 10 seats, which is totally than what people expected. everyone ridiculed trump for saying we're gonna win the house gained house seats and whatever, he did not quite when it but they came close. if republicans lose 10 house seats in 2020 and lose a couple of these senate seats, they thought were in play that they end up that ended up reverting at the end. i think the effect of january six is totally different. i don't think kevin mccarthy, i don't think they rallied it. they did not think republicans in the house do not think donald trump is a disaster for them. kevin mccarthy is 3 to 1 odds to become speaker of the house in 2022. and they're probably going to reelect republican governors will become more and more trumpy and much trumpy er, than their predecessors. one of the biggest things students i think people really need to think hard about is, i mean, i hope there's a political price to be paid. until there's a much more evident political price to be paid for being a trumpy republican and it's not just in rather few swing districts, but it is across the nation. i think very hard to change the party now. i think maybe pennsylvania and ohio and wisconsin and michigan this year will make a big difference. and that will be an interesting question. does it affect the presidential, you know, raises in 23 4 doesn't really strengthen those on the republican side, who said we can't do trump again? it is an underreported fact that republicans felt ok about their own party in 2021. half of them work happy to get rid of trump. i think this was kippered's point -- katherine's point. >> well, listen, we i'm cognizant of time to hear, i we've covered policy, we've covered politics. am going to go to predictions. i would love to ask for all of you and i'll start with you janet, like, can you envision, what does, what does the congress look like after november 8 jack --? what is going to happen at the start of a major presidential election in 2024? >> i think we've all failed at that recently. i will regroup after november 8. i think the house goes to republicans, the senate holds. >> let's go to you next barbara. >> i think the senate stays democrat, down two or three. those will be trump candidates. how those swing seats are determined may be impacted by some of these bad senate candidates. that could have an impact then how things are going forward. one of the leadership races will be tom amber. he is very popular. he is a more collegial person and less, more practical. elise stefanik now announcing that she is going to run. who wins the race could determine if there's any success at all in the house. >> catherine? i think you are muted. why don't we go to build. -- bill. >> i'll just revert to my original point, i think surprising things will happen and it will be more chaotic than we expect. are we confident that trump doesn't try to depose him with stefanik or somebody else? are we confident that i assume if they lose the house speaker, pelosi steps down as leader and probably just resigns from the house, maybe not if it's really close, but she thinks she could really affect things, but maybe she does. i guess we think hakeem jeffries is next in line, but we're not certain we don't know about that. does mcconnell stay incidentally as minority leader for another maybe he does. i just think the degree of and and right away the question becomes both trump assuming he's running. how strong is he? and does biden run again? which imes kept to bilbao. -- which i am skeptical about. i don't think harris is a lay down to be the nominee as well. >> i keep my money in mitch mcconnell. >> ok. i am writing all these down. >> i think the senate stays in democratic hands, the house is in republican hands, but much more narrowly than many are predicting. we see probably 4 to 5 high profile recount election four or five high profile, not decided on election night races. it will make the landscape of the 2024 election even mourn president did. i also do not think that harris is issuing. -- a shoe in. >> so many factors to determine that. >> to finish it out, what is your advice to all the students on here? there is so much at stake. there is so much going on. there's so many factors. what would you advise them? >> i think regardless of party get involved with candidates that you believe in. people who are principled and that you want to work with. particularly in these 50-50 districts. you can really make a difference in do not be did scourged. -- discouraged. if you are up in pennsylvania, jumped in and there are a lot of races to play in there. you can make a big difference in arizona. engaging in those races and getting election deniers. we can all agree on that. >> like i said, read your local paper, stay on top of your local issues. make sure you read the you know the national news and cnn and the washington post of the world, but really stay on top of your local issues because those will dominate your lives and will have real impact on on your house and households in in the next few years. >> go work on a campaign. i try not to hire anybody who hasn't worked on a political >> zones really matter in the next two years so make sure put in an effort. on cnn and washington was the world stay of those because those will dominate your lives and will have a effect on your house and tells for the next few years for sure. themselves in politics and america. >> some people are dropping off and have been able to answer questions from our students. i cannot enqueue enough -- i cannot enqueue -- cannot rank -- thank you enough. i thank you for your voice. you are welcome on this campus. we will ask you to bring your voices to these conversations. i want to thank you. we will all get together maybe afterward and i will bring my paperwork with those predictions and we will see how it goes. but i am sure there will be a lot of discussion about this election. i will close it by saying that cap friends point about the farm bill coming up. elections have consequences. so these are not competitions for consequent -- competition sake. campaigns are about contrast -- government is about consensus or should be about consensus. we will bring you all back and talk about what is the new landscape and how we will navigate that as a country when it comes to these issues. i look forward to talking with you between now and election day. thank you for supporting our mission. -- welcome back students that are coming back. we are excited to have you here. we have an incredible all program. we will give you more information about the elections and you can get advice from these individuals of how you can have an impact. so please do so, enjoy the rest of your day everyone we will be in touch soon. >> thank. >> thank you. >> over the past few months, the january 6 committee held a series of hearings, revealing the findings from its investigation. all week, watch c-span as we look back at the committee's eight hearings featuring never before seen evidence. depositions, and witness testimony on this attack of the u.s. capitol. tonight at 8 p.m. eastern, date political leaders and election officials from georgia and arizona described the pressures they faced from president trump and his allies. the -- to decertify the election and their harassment and threats they experience from his supporters. watch tonight on c-span or anytime on demand at c-span.org. >> there are a lot of places to get political information. but only at c-span, do you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from, or where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network. unfiltered. unbiased, word