Outperformance in credit. Corporate dons on track for the best returns in a decade, but how long can the rally continue . Begin with the big issue, markets betting low rates are here to stay in 2020. It is hard to see the yield breakout from here. Bond yields moving sideways. We cant generate any inflation right now. Attractive but certainly not breaking out. 1. 20 by the end of the year. If we get attractive but certainly not breaking out. To 1. 2 on the 10 year, we are looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things have to be t going incredibly wrong to get to 1 . Unless the market begins to price in additional cuts, the 10 year, at most, will drop down to the 1. 60 range. The fed will probably not cut again. If there is any weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. Least resistance has been lower, and i see no reason to see that change in 2020. Taylor can we break out of the 2019 . Set in joining us from new york are collin martin, peter
They are cheaper. We will test 1 . The 10l get to 1. 2 on year. I dont see a resolution on the trade front. I think that weight will continue to weigh on the u. S. Economy. Back will have to come again. There has been a tremendous shift across central bank landscapes in 2019. How do you think that could happen . It probably couldnt. Lisa everyone ganging up on bob michele. We have more perspective. Joining me around the table is Marilyn Watson of blackrock, Matt Hornbach of Morgan Stanley and Subadra Rajappa of societe generale. Marilyn, i would love to start with you. Do you think that now that we have some contours of a trade deal, that we will seek 10 year treasury yields bleed higher into next year . Marilyn we have to see what the details are on the phase one trade deal, how much they will roll back next year, the impact for the rest of this year. It would reduce some of the headwinds if we see more stabilization. But i think going into next year where you had some of the we think
Retail earnings over the next couple of days. Thirdquarter earnings better than estimated at 1. 13. They see their fullyear adjusted earnings raised from what they saw before on the 5. 91. D, looking at. It looks like on first blush, a beat and a raise for the rest. Global exchange for the rest of the year. Time now for global exchange, where we bring you the news from all around the world. Our bloomberg voices are underground with the latest. China and the u. S. Agreed to stay in touch on remaining issues to get to a phase i trade deal after a phone call earlier, in which topic a shooters top negotiators from both sides discussed core concerns. They agreed to maintain communication on the remaining issues for the first phase of negotiations. Enda curran joins me from hong kong. It is a long, convoluted way of saying they are still just talking . Is all about the mood music. It is another day of incremental news that seems to bes adjusting that governments are on track for some kind of
Fears of recession and uncertainty surrounding trade, sparking a rush into safety. That leads to a u. S. Yield curve that inverted wednesdayish, as i recall, the First Time Since 2007. The recession is avoidable. Even when you see the yield curve invert. That does not necessarily mean we are going over a cliff into recession. It tends to be about 18 months earlier than you see recession. This is about traditional signals of the yield curve. Talking about the curve inversion. Inversion. 2 10 inversion. The risk of recession goes right up. The castiron signal recession is probably not correct. Markets always shortterm have a wall of worry to climb. The market is, in an extreme way, seeking safe haven. A safe haven. Looking for safety. Treasury bonds is where you go. Tom terrific conversation through the week across all of bloomberg media. We want to advance this now and into the weekend with peter tchir of academy securities. Thrilled that peter could join us on the mechanisms we saw thi
Uncertainty surrounding trade, sparking a rush into safety. That leads to a u. S. Yield curve that inverted wednesdayish, as i recall, the First Time Since 2007. The recession is avoidable. Even when you see the yield curve invert. That does not necessarily mean we are going over a cliff into recession. It tends to be about 18 months earlier than you see recession. This is about traditional signals of the yield curve. Talking about the curve inversion. Inversion. 2 10 inversion. The risk of recession goes right up. The castiron signal recession is probably not correct. Markets always shortterm have a wall of worry to climb. The market is, in an extreme way, seeking safe haven. A safe haven. Looking for safety. Treasury bonds is where you go. Tom terrific conversation through the week across all of bloomberg media. We want to advance this now and into the weekend with peter tchir of academy securities. Thrilled that peter could join us on the mechanisms we saw this week within fixed inc