Frontrunner, george w. Bush. He couldnt make a race of it. That was decided in south carolina. I feel like were heading to something like that again this year. Haley is likely to emerge after iowa New Hampshire as the last viable alternative to trump but done it mostly on the votes of independents. And to really make a race of this, shes going to have to give republicans a stronger argument than shes been willing to try so far. Iowa is a deeply red state, a lot of love for trump, but is iowa a bellwether, does the result portend much for the next races . Not really. Iowa has had a poor record picking the republican nominee. Last three iowa winners, none of them won a dozen states or the nomination. That trend may break this year with trump. Reason iowa has not been a good
Reason iowa has not been a good predictor of the eventual winner is because the last candidates won here in a similar way, focused on maximizing support among evangelical christians, but then they had trouble reaching out beyond that community in other states and couldnt make a go of it. A problem that was apparent immediately in new hampshire. One thing ill be watching for on monday is in the exit poll, who wins the minority of voters who are not evangelical christians because that winner has usually won the nomination. The problem for haley, on track to be the last Standing Alternative to trump ten days from now after new hampshire, is that she has to peel away more republicans. To do that, she has to make a stronger case against trump