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them messy. one of them ukrainian victory with putin doing something crazy as humiliation stare him in the face. outcome two splintering western allies and engaging ukrainians. outcome 3, a less dirty deal. we go back to the lines where everyone was before putin invaded but would putin have could be ousted first. because he would never abide by the undeniable implication that his war was completely for knot. thomas friedman joins me now, the author of seven best-selling books including "the world is flat" and most recently "thank you for being late." tom, thank you for being here, how does the resistance of the putin draft assist your scenarios and outcomes? >> well, the way i look at it michael, these are resistance movements, the report that young
this will cause the russians to have to focus more energy down here in southern ukraine separately. whether it's in eastern ukraine or southern ukraine, the russians are having a hard time keeping control of the turf. you're seeing ukrainian resistance movements in the rear areas of the russians. this will turn into an insurgency, a ukrainian insurgency inside the russian area. asking the question about when these sanctions take hold come late summer, when there's catastrophic, economic consequences, how will russia keep fight going? that brings us back to the big picture overall. the russians are already moving older reserve supplies of equipment down here into the south. separately, belarus has opened up some of their old tanks and materials to provide back into the russians, and they're going to start meeting intense equipment shortages. the last one is in terms of the morale of the russian soldiers. those that went into that crazy first wave in kyiv have been pulled back. others are being ground up here in the east. they need more conscripts, and
of even attacking... but strength in numbers, coordination! so i do think that coordination comes. i don't think that you should demand of movements to be coordinated from the very beginning. i also don't think that movements need to be coordinated to succeed. i feel as though, for instance, and i'll give you the example of kenya's fight for independence. it's very easy to think that it is only the kikuyu, it is only the mau mau who want the fight for independence for all kenyans. that was the resistance movement, the mau mau in the 1950s, yeah. there were several other. it was kikuyu—based. yes, and that there were many resistance movements happening in multiple places. it's just some that get named, some that get put in your neat little statistics, so you can tell me about un women and you can tell me about... but i can tell you about so many more grassroots movements that aren't named in un documents that are getting so much stuff done on the ground. all right, fair enough. you turned to the world of arts from medicine. and one of the areas that you're very active in is in this debate,
community building that has to happen between groups that have had very kind of disparate socialisations, very kind of disparate ways of understanding things, of even attacking... but strength in numbers, coordination! so i do think that coordination comes. i don't think that you should demand of movements to be coordinated from the very beginning. i also don't think that movements need to be coordinated to succeed. ifeel as though, for instance, and i'll give you the example of kenya's fight for independence. it's very easy to think that it is only the kikuyu, it is only the mau mau who want the fight for independence for all kenyans. that was the resistance movement, the mau mau in the 1950s, yeah. there were several other. it was kikuyu—based. yes, and that there were many resistance movements happening in multiple places. it's just some that get named, some that get put in your neat little statistics, so you can tell me about un women and you can tell me about... but i can tell you about so many more grassroots movements that aren't named in un documents that are getting so much stuff done on the ground. all right, fair enough.
considerable amount of help for the ukrainians to resist. militarily, they are no match for the russians. they will run over them very quickly. the first day is the best day they're going to have. they then have to face the ukrainian people in the resistance movements and it will turn into a very bloody situation. there won't be engagement between two. ukraine is not a nato country. they've made application. they haven't met the qualifications yet. but our obligation is to our other 29 nato partners. we will all help but not come in to defend. >> and despite that they have 130,000, 150,000 troops on the border, they have no intention of doing anything with them. the pentagon says that strains credulity. let me play for what you admiral
happen and the russians are able to secure a large part of ukraine, i can't see how the ukrainians would not continue to resist. you know, during the second world war against the nazis and even against the soviets after the war, they have had resistance movements before. and i expect that there would be large-international support for any kind of insurgency that manifests after any kind of russian' success. i would add, though, michael, that even if the russians win tactically, politically it's hard to see how they could be successful here. they can only win at the cost of massive destruction and massive bloodshed. they will have 44 million ukrainians that will hate them. >> yeah. exactly. and quite apart from previous resistance efforts, this is a country where people power has thrown out a couple of pro-moscow presidents in the past. so, you're right. they have. major general mick ryan, out of time. thank you so much for your