European Weather Model Increases Demand Expectations as Natural Gas Futures Climb
An increase in projected demand from the European weather model overnight helped spark gains for natural gas futures in early trading Thursday. The February Nymex contract was up 6.5 cents to $2.487/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET.
As of early Thursday, the European weather model had gained more than 15 heating degree days over the previous 24 hours, while the American Global Forecast System (GFS) model added less demand and maintained a more bearish outlook, according to NatGasWeather.
“National demand will ease to light levels this weekend through next week as the amount of subfreezing air over the U.S. wanes,” the firm said. “There will still be weather systems bringing rain and snow, but mainly over the West and at times the Plains and southern U.S. This is where the overnight GFS remains quite mild with only modest bouts of cooling through Jan. 12, while the European shows a similar overall u
Natural Gas Forwards Close Out 2020 with Steep Losses Amid Warm January Outlook
With Old Man Winter appearing to trade in his snow boots for flip flops, natural gas forward prices ratcheted up declines during the final week of 2020. February prices tumbled an average of 11.0 cents from Dec. 24 to 30, while the balance of winter (February-March) fell an average 9.0 cents, according to
Smaller losses of around a nickel were seen for next summer and the winter 2021-2022 strip at the majority of pricing hubs, however, Northeast points continued to register steep losses that far out the curve.
Henry Hub futures were especially volatile, because of both big changes on the weather front and the typical volatility that accompanies the expiration of a Nymex contract. The January futures contract rolled off the board at $2.467 after trading to an intraday high of $2.632 on Christmas Eve.
January Natural Gas Futures Inch Ahead Despite LNG Decline, Coronavirus Concerns; Spot Prices Sputter
Worries mounted over a still-surging coronavirus pandemic
LNG volumes declined from the prior week
Cash prices cascaded as temperatures climbed
Despite favorable weather news, natural gas futures traded sideways Monday as worries mounted over a still-surging coronavirus pandemic and its potential impacts on economies and energy demand.
The January Nymex contract settled at $2.705/MMBtu, up a half-cent day/day. February ticked up eight-tenths of a cent to $2.689.
NGI’s Spot GasNational Avg., meanwhile, declined 19.5 cents to $2.815 amid a warm weather start to the week.
NatGasWeather said that while major models swayed back and forth between milder and colder trends over the weekend and into Monday, the American Global Forecast System ultimately settled on a colder outlook beginning around the Christmas holiday and continuing into early January.