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High Risk, Low Reward for S&P 500 for Foreseeable Future – Investment Watch

The probability is high for the S&P 500 in February 2022 to be below its February 2021 high.  This quant-based conclusion is from my research findings on four clusters of BSAs (Bullish Sentiment Anomalies).  Three of the BSA clusters were formed from 1999 to 2017.  The fourth BSA cluster since 1999 was formed from 12/3/2020 to 2/18/2021.   The discovery was the S&P 500 underperformed or declined for the 12-month periods which follow a cluster of BSAs.  The table below depicts the periods in which a minimum of four BSAs occurred within an 11-week time frame. The BSA is an acronym for the  Bullish  Anomaly which was discovered in November 2020.  

Time to Inspect the Indicators

Time to Inspect the Indicators Let s check out some interesting trading tidbits and see what could unfold in the coming days. Feb 04, 2021 | 06:00 AM EST We saw some interesting tidbits in Wednesday s trading. I would not call any of it significant, but certainly worth noting and discussing. Yesterday we discussed the McClellan Summation Index, which peaked in December and has been slowly leaking for the last two months. Remember this tells us what the majority of stocks are doing. With the positive breadth on Wednesday this indicator stopped going down. It has not really turned upward yet but it stopped going down and that is a change.

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