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Many Americans lost faith in political polls after the 2016 election. As we watched The New York Times‘ tracker show Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning fall from 85% on November 8, 2020, to zero at the end of tabulation early in the morning of November 10, we wondered how the Times and so many others had gotten it so wrong. Before election night, the Trump campaign asserted that “shy” Trump voters could disrupt the election. While Morning Consult and Politico determined that these shy Trump voters did exist, the outlets were sure this phenomenon would not be enough to swing the election. When Trump won, pollsters blamed their significant miss on factors like the education divide and offered suggestions to fix it. They fiddled with their data collection and analysis methods for the polls. Yet, up and down the ballot, they missed again in 2020. They predicted Democrats would gain seats in the House and easily win a Senate majority. The statistical bias toward Democ

United statesNew yorkSusan collinsStephen rossSara gideonHillary clintonFrank luntzRobert cahalyAmerican association for public opinion researchMaine senateTrafalgar groupMany americansNew york timeMorning consultElection dayWashington post