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Leaning against the wind and the risk of financial crises

Lars E.O. Svensson How should a central bank react when it observes that a potentially dangerous credit and asset price boom is under way? Can monetary policymakers defuse rising financial stability risks by ‘leaning against the wind’ and increasing interest rates? These questions have sparked considerable disagreement among economists. Proponents of policies that ‘lean into the wind’ argue that tight monetary policy can rein in roaring financial markets, lowering the risk and severity of financial crashes (Stein 2013, Adrian and Liang 2018). Critics of such policies counter by arguing that monetary policy is ineffective in lowering crisis risk and that the side-effects are potentially severe (Bernanke and Gertler 2001, Gilchrist and Leahy 2002, Svensson 2017). 

Rosalie Liccardo Pacula

Rosalie Liccardo Pacula PhD is a Full Professor and the Elizabeth Garrett Chair in Health Policy, Economics & Law in the Sol Price School of Public Policy and the Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics at the University of Southern California. She also serves as Co-PI of the NIH P50 funded RAND/USC Opioid Policy Tools and Information Center of Excellence (OPTIC) and is the Co-Director of USC’s Institute on Addiction Sciences Policy Affinity Group. Prior to coming to USC, she spent 15 years as the Co-Director of RAND’s Drug Policy Research Center, which provided her the opportunity to educate and engage with policy makers at the state, federal and international level on policies related to alcohol, cannabis, opioids among others.

Interregional contact and national identity | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Irma Clots-Figueras, Paolo Masella Cultivating and maintaining a sense of national identity is a critical challenge facing modern states. States whose citizens identify more strongly with local political units than the nation as a whole may face difficulties in solving collective-action problems, in sustaining support for social safety nets, and in preventing secessionist movements. Such movements are present in many European countries, such as Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK.  Regional mixing to foster a shared identity Historically, governments have tried to strengthen a shared national identity through various measures, including national education programs, media propaganda, and resettlement schemes (Bandiera et al. 2019, Blouin and Mukand 2019, Cantoni et al. 2014, Clots-Figueras and Masella 2014). Another commonly applied tool for strengthening a shared national identity and increasing social cohesion is conscription. A key feature of conscription, as adopted by m

Workers bargaining power, business cycle fluctuations, and the Phillips curve

Jennifer Castle, David Hendry Three stylised structural changes have been underway since the end of 1980s. First, the Phillips curve flattened. Figure 1 reports rolling estimates of the slope of the Phillips curve based on a panel of six advanced economies. The large swings in output and unemployment since the Global Crisis put the debate on the ‘elusive’ Phillips curve under the spotlight, as a key ingredient to the ‘missing deflation’ and ‘missing inflation’ puzzles (Hall 2013, Coibion and Gorodnichenko 2013, Constancio 2015, Williams 2010 among many others). Yet the flattening was already well underway when the Global Crisis hit – it is widely acknowledged that it dates back to the end of the 1980s (Blanchard 2016, Del Negro et al. 2020).

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