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The Midterm Elections Are a Jump Ball

We’ve lived through three riveting election cycles in a row President Trump’s two races, with House Democrats’ midterm triumph sandwiched in the middle. But don’t get comfortable now, because we may be in for another one. With the Senate 50-50 and the current House split 218 to 212, with five vacant seats we’re headed toward another compelling cycle. Republicans have more exposure in the Senate, as they’re defending 20 seats, against just 14 for Democrats. Republicans are also trying to hold onto five open seats, versus Democrats’ none. Yet history is on Republicans’ side. In the House, the party holding the presidency has had a net loss of seats in 37 (95 percent) out of 39 midterm elections. The two exceptions were 1934, Franklin Roosevelt’s first midterm election when voters were not yet finished punishing Herbert Hoover’s party, and 2002, when George W. Bush still had an unusually high 63 percent Gallup job-approval rating 14 months after the Sept. 11 atta

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