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The effects of currency strength on international trade | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Emine Boz, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, Helena Le Mezo , Arnaud Mehl, Tra Nguyen We are accustomed to drawing an automatic link between exchange rates and exports through the trade competitiveness channel of exchange rates. This column highlights another important channel through which exchange rates affect global trade activity – the impact of a stronger dollar on tighter financial conditions, which in turn adversely affects credit availability for working capital of exporting firms.   Figure 1 is a striking illustration of how global trade activity fluctuates with the strength of the dollar. The chart plots the ratio of world goods exports to world GDP over the past 20 years or so. We see the strong growth in exports before the 2007-2009 Global Crisis, a deep decline as the crisis hit, and an equally sharp rebound in its aftermath. Thereafter, global trade was on a gentle declining trend relative to GDP until the Covid-19 pandemic struck last year. What i

Capitals capital history international financial centres 17802005 | Economic history

Capitals capital history international financial centres 17802005 | Economic history
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The impact of fundamentals and promotion policy on trade invoicing

Georgios Georgiadis, Helena Le Mezo , Arnaud Mehl, Cédric Tille 26 July 2021 The US dollar has a dominant role in currency invoicing of global trade, covering around 40% of international transactions, followed by the euro and the renminbi. This column analyses the effects of economic fundamentals and government policies on currency invoicing patterns. Strategic complementarities and integration in global value chains are both important determinants of dollar and euro invoicing in trade with the US and the euro area, while the establishment of currency swap lines by the People’s Bank of China has been associated with increases in renminbi invoicing, with an adverse effect on dollar use. 

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