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Dire Predictions Suggest Antarctic Rainfall Will Dramatically Intensify This Century
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MIL-OSI United Nations: Climate change indicators and impacts worsened in 2020
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American Geophysical Union
Rain falls at the Dumont d’Urville Station in the eastern Antarctic coast, New Year’s Day 2014.
Credit: Bruno Jourdain /Nicolas Jourdain / UGA/CNRS/IPEV
Liza Lester, +1 (202) 777-7494, [email protected] (UTC -4 hours)
Étienne Vignon, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, [email protected] (UTC +2 hours)
Alexis Berne, Environmental Remote Sensing Laboratory, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, [email protected] (UTC +2 hours)
Rainfall could increase in amount, frequency and intensity over the next 80 years along the coast of Antarctica, a new study predicts.
By 2100, if greenhouse gases continue to be released at a high level, rain might increase by 240% on average across the continent.
Abstract
Current sea-level projections are based on climate models in which the effects of ocean eddies are parameterized. Here, we investigate the effect of ocean eddies on global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) projections, using climate model simulations. Explicitly resolving ocean eddies leads to a more realistic Southern Ocean temperature distribution and volume transport. These quantities control the rate of basal melt, which eventually results in Antarctic mass loss. In a model with resolved ocean eddies, the Southern Ocean temperature changes lead to a smaller Antarctic GMSLR contribution compared to the same model in which eddies are parameterized. As a result, the projected GMSLR is about 25% lower at the end of this century in the eddying model. Relatively small-scale ocean eddies can hence have profound large-scale effects and consequently affect GMSLR projections.
James W Hurrell
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