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An uneven global economic recovery in 2021 promises to invert a longstanding principle of success and failure “All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina   The opening sentence of Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina is among the most famous in world literature, but it has a special significance to economists, for whom it represents a principle that can be applied in multiple contexts and fields of study. The Anna Karenina principle states that success requires the comprehensive fulfillment of a set of necessary conditions, and the absence of any one of those conditions will lead to failure. Consequently, successes are all fundamentally similar, as they reflect the presence of the same array of factors, while failures are diverse, with each stemming from its own unique deficiencies.

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