The year-over-year
rate of growth of the majority of coincident indices improved or was little changed relative to last month - but only half of the indices are in expansion. It should be obvious the economy entered a recession in March 2020 but likely exited in May or June 2020. Normally a recession ends when the economy starts improving.
Analyst Opinion of the Current Status of the Coincident Indicators
The reality is that most of the economic indicators have moderate to significant backward revision - and this month they are generally showing improved growth. Out of this group of coincident indicators discussed in this post, only ECRI, The New York Fed s Weekly Economic Indicator, and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index have no backward revision - and are designed to track the economy in real-time.
Futures Point To Lower Open For Wall Street
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January 2021 Coincident Indices Are Inconsistent In Their Assessment Of Economic Conditions
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