UNTIL it arrived, 2020 was seen by many as a symbol of the future. It was a benchmark and distant date with destiny – aided by phrases like “2020 vision”. But 2020 didn’t feel like the future that had been predicted – or like any other year. This is a salutary lesson. Much of the future is always surprising, unimagined and unpredictable – while other parts are predictable or “inevitable surprises”. To think, dream and conceive of the future is part of what it is to be human. Yet, conventional futures thinking (what used to be called “futurology”) tends to miss much as it contains such a narrow set of assumptions. There is an over-propensity to prioritise order and rationality, a belief in the efficacy of models and predictions, and now – with unparalleled computer capacity – there is a faith in algorithms as a substitute for reality.
This year – 2020 – has been shocking. If I try to find a silver lining, I think it might be this – that finally, the need for effective planning to address long-term problems has come under the spotlight around the world.
A pandemic planning committee had been scrapped six months before coronavirus hit the UK – despite the fact that the threat from a pandemic had been known for some time. Similarly, an early warning programme to alert the government in the United States to pandemics was ended three months before COVID-19 began infecting people in China. Presumably lessons will be learned here.
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has consumed political and media attention. But there are other long-term crises on the horizon that have had equally insufficient long-term planning. Many believe that democratic politics is too myopic: the horizons of politicians are restricted to the next election. I agree: short-termism in governance needs to be urgently addressed.
4CG in Cardigan is celebrating its 10th anniversary. 4CG - or to use its full name Cymdeithas Cynnal a Cefnogi Cefn Gwlad or the Society to Sustain and Support the Rural Countryside” - is a co-operative organisation set up to ‘advance community development through the regeneration of Cardigan and the surrounding area’. It was established by a small group of locals that strongly felt there were many opportunities within Cardigan to increase community cohesion, enhance its surroundings and to take small steps to help improve the local economy – and that a determined and focused organisation could make a difference. The group’s focus on developing the local community and economy stems from understanding the benefits that local trade brings.
By Flora Samuel2020-12-21T07:00:00+00:00
Flora Samuel finds some hope in taking the long view
Christmas time and the approaching new year are a good time to take stock and do a bit of reflection on the future and the long-term view.
To do that you sometimes have to look back. This month we at the UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence (Cache) published a report called Delivering Design Value: The Housing Design Quality Conundrum. It was based on extensive interviews with all the people we could find who were prepared to talk about the delivery of an average set of average housing estates in all four countries of the UK.