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Angus Armstrong, Francesco Caselli, Jagjit Chadha, Wouter den Haan In 2014, Scotland voted against becoming independent. But the UK’s decision to leave the EU has reignited the debate over Scottish independence. A majority of Scottish voters backed remaining in the EU (Sobolewska and Ford 2020) and the Scottish National Party has pledged to use the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections to seek a mandate for a second referendum. Although there is no guarantee the UK government will agree to a new vote, recent opinion polls show a majority of Scots favour independence ( The Herald 2020). In recent work, we analyse the economics of independence and how Brexit affects its costs and benefits (Huang et al. 2021). We seek to answer two main questions. First, how do the estimated effects of independence compare to the impact of Brexit on the Scottish economy? Second, would an independent Scotland be better off economically inside or outside the EU? 

United kingdomRodriguez moraE van wincoopVan wincoopJ van reenenBoris johnson brexitCambridge universityCambridge university pressScottish parliamentCentre for economic performanceScottish national partyEconomic performanceIreland united kingdomEconomic literatureEconomic impactBoris johnson