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Scientists propose a new method for assessing progress toward the Paris Agreement’s climate goal – limiting global temperature rise to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to achieve 1.5 OC above preindustrial levels. The research was led by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and published in Nature Climate Change.
Inconsistencies between the land use CO2 estimates of the national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories and those of the global models can lead to inaccuracies in such assessment. The study reconciles the different land-use GHG estimates by translatingthe results of global models into figures comparable to countriesGHG inventories. The findings of the study are relevant for the global carbon modelling community (including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change- IPCC) and for the Global Stocktake (the periodic assessment of collective climate progress starting in 2022 under the Paris Agreement)
Comments Off on Forests Don’t Offset as Much CO2 as Countries Claim
BRUSSELS, Belgium, May 3, 2021 (ENS) – A giant gap between the amount of greenhouse gases countries report emitting and the amount of these heat-trapping gases independent scientists estimate from global models that the countries actually emit, a scientific team led by researchers of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has found.
The main issue is that there appears to be a “conceptual discrepancy between model estimates and country reporting,” the JRC researchers said.
As a fix, the JRC scientists are proposing a method for improving the assessment of the world’s collective progress towards the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the global temperature increase to two degrees Celsius (2°C) above preindustrial levels.
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Timber harvest in Europe lower than claimed
Has timber harvesting in Europe increased in recent years? Yes, say researchers from various countries, but nowhere near as much as a study on “Abrupt increase in harvested forest area in Europe after 2015” published in Nature in the summer of 2020 claims. In a new study, a European team including Prof. Dr. Jürgen Bauhus, Chair of Silviculture and Prof. Dr. Marc Hanewinkel, Chair of Forest Economics and Forest Planning at the University of Freiburg, Germany, shows that the timber harvest has increased by only 6 percent in recent years, not 69 percent as previously postulated. The erroneous analysis was due to an increase in the sensitivity of the underlying satellite data. In addition, the earlier publication had mistakenly classified some forest areas affected by natural disturbances as timber harvest, explain the authors of the current study, which has now also appeared in Nature.