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Analysts say full membership is highly unlikely for Ukraine in the near term, although there are signs NATO may increase its presence in the region to counter the new Russian aggressiveness. In the interim, the Biden administration is faced with deciding how aggressively to respond to Mr. Putin’s probing. “The Kremlin is testing Biden in a couple of places right now. That’s what the Kremlin does. It tests new presidents,” said Donald Jensen, a member of the Russia and Strategic Stability project at the United States Institute of Peace. “It’s not because Biden has been weak,” Mr. Jensen, a former U.S. diplomat and longtime specialist on Russian domestic politics, said in an interview. The Russian moves are, at least in part, a response to Mr. Biden’s own aggressive signaling toward the Kremlin and Mr. Putin, personally, in his first weeks in office.

United statesWhite houseDistrict of columbiaUkraine generalRussian federationDmitry peskovPavelk baevVolodymyr zelenskiyJens stoltenbergDonald jensenJohn kirbyVladimir putinAlexei navalnyInternational peace research instituteUnited states institute of peaceJamestown foundation