Job loss bodes ill for economy, spurring demand is key, says Mahesh Vyas
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April’s labour participation rate was lower than in March 2020, says CMIE’s Vyas.
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April’s labour participation rate was lower than in March 2020, says CMIE’s Vyas. Rising unemployment including among the salaried class and shrinking real incomes have led to a lack of demand that bodes ill for the economy, said Mahesh Vyas, managing director at the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).
“Unemployment rising is not a good sign at all for the economy,” he said. “Labour participation rate recovered soon after the lockdown was eased last year, but has run out of momentum even before it could recover fully,” Mr. Vyas added.
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At the beginning of 2021, when S&P Global Ratings forecast Indian gross domestic product growth at 11% for the coming financial year, the number looked eminently achievable. Last month, the Goods and Services Tax a good barometer of economy activity hit 1.41 trillion rupees ($19.1 billion), its highest ever monthly collection. Indeed, it’s been higher than the benchmark Rs. 1 trillion for seven consecutive months and higher than the same month for the last year for eight consecutive months.
India’s international merchandise trade reached $34 billion in March, the highest ever, and stayed over $30 billion in April. Many short term economic indicators auto sales, electricity consumption, highway toll collection were also pointing to a strong recovery after a crushing 2020.