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Five market trends investors are eyeing halfway through 2021
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Five market trends investors are eyeing halfway through 2021 - Netscape Money & Business
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Gold has rallied to a four-month high – rising in US dollar terms by $100 in the first 18 days of May, and more than $200 since the low this year set on March 30
th. On a technical positive gold moved decisively above its 200-day moving average! The decline in the US dollar is one of the reasons behind the recent rally in gold. But as the chart below shows gold is also rallying in other currencies as well. This rally in gold has three key factors that will support it further.
Gold Price in Various Currencies Chart
The first is the rise in inflation expectations. The breakeven rate, the difference between the nominal bond yield and the Treasury Inflation Protected Security yield for the same duration, is one widely used indicator of inflation expectations. The chart below shows that the US 2-year breakeven rate has increased to the highest level. Since before Lehman Brother’s failed in September 2008, arguably the catalyst to the worse part of the Great Financial Crisis.
Apr 28 2021, 9:29AM
Today s Fed announcement isn t likely to contain any major revelations for the bond market, nor to cause any significant volatility. Logical conclusion based on recent comments or famous last words? One can never be sure when it comes to the Fed. There s always a small risk that the Fed will surprise us, even when it doesn t seem likely. What we CAN be sure of is this: to whatever extent any of the this week s Treasury weakness is attributable to pre-Fed apprehension, an as-expected announcement could be helpful this afternoon.
To be clear, this isn t a prediction. In fact, I don t think yesterday s weakness had much if anything to do with the Fed. They ve been very clear about their current policy stance and unless they ve drastically miscommunicated, we d need to see
Why The Gold Price Is Sinking
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