doldrom Says:
This Hotez is spreading disinformation:
For the herd immunity threshold to go from 60% to 90% would mean that the unmitigated R₀ would have to quadruple, from 2.5 to 10.
1-(1/2.5) = 60%
1-(1/10 ) = 90%
Nobody is saying that the B.1.1.7 variant is 4× as contagious: Estimates are more in the 30% ballpark.
This indication of the herd immunity threshold also assumes that nobody has acquired immunity by recovery, which is estimated to be between 10-50% of the population, depending on which public health source you consult.
It is also not true that the so-called second wave in the US in the summer and in the mid-West in the fall came about due to the lifting of various mandates: The seasonal prevalence of respiratory infections in the US always has a double hump form, because the geography includes very different climate zones. There is tremendous seasonal correlation in various countries/states with traditional seasonal patterns and regional climate zones. In tempe
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