7/5/2021 10:03:36 PM GMT | By Anil Panchal
As per the latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), for the Q2 2021, 60% of financial services sector firms expect interest rates to rise over coming year.
Additional details…
Capacity Utilisation 94.9% versus 93.3% in Q1 2021, inflation pressures rising.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, 10% expected business conditions to improve, better than 8.0% pessimism recorded in the previous period.
Ahead of the QSBO release, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said,
We’re forecasting annual GDP growth of 15.3% in Q2, but with growth so far out of whack with typical ranges, getting precise with what today’s data imply for GDP growth will be a challenge.
New Zealand QSBO for Q2 2021, business confidence headline 7% (vs. -13% prior)
Mon 5 Jul 2021 22:01:44 GMT
From the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research
Capacity utilisation is higher, coming in at 94.9% vs. 93.8% in Q1.
Net 10% of businesses expect an improvement in the economic outlook on a seasonally adjusted basis
from the previous quarter when net 8% of businesses had expected a deterioration
Firms own trading activity net 26% of businesses reporting increased demand in the June quarter
Strong construction demand is boosting confidence in the building sector
strong pipeline of residential, commercial and government construction work over the coming year
capacity pressures are becoming more acute in the construction sector . COVID-related supply chain disruptions and labour shortages . building construction firms difficulty finding skilled labour at the highest for the survey s history (going back to 1976)
MacroBusiness
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at 8:04 am on July 6, 2021 | 0 comments
Forex markets were largely stable last night with Wall Street closed but under the surface there are some interesting dynamics. DXY was firm and EUR soft:
Australian dollar was basically unchanged:
Oil and gold both jumped:
Base metals lifted with oil:
US and EM junk have diverged a little but it’s not material yet:
EM stocks are stalled still:
Miners did better in London:
Other markets were closed. Westpac has the wrap:
Event Wrap
The
Markit Eurozone Services PMI survey was finalised at 58.3, from the flash reading of 58.0, taking the composite index to 59.5 from 59.2. Although Germany’s final readings fell, other national indices rose at the highest growth rates in 15 years. Service sector firms are struggling with surging demand and supply shortages, including labour, and are raising prices at the “steepest pace in 20 years”, with optimism at the highest in 21 years.
9 hours ago
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The official cash rate - at a record low since the pandemic hit - will likely start rising again before the end of the year, a major bank is predicting.
When labour is scarce wages go up, driving inflation (as measured in the consumer price index, or CPI). Inflation is also being pushed upwards by supply chain disruptions thanks to COVID-19, and high demand in the construction sector, with consents at an all-time high.