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Ellis says in investing, outcomes are determined not by the great strategy and exceptional execution by the winner . Rather, they are the result of losers mistakes rather than the winners proficiency.
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May 26, 2021
Inflation has been the topic of much debate and concern recently, as the economy continues to rebound from the coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve sets its sights on 2% inflation. But some analysts are worried that inflation rates surging past that target could spell trouble for both bond and equity markets.
Since last summer, the Federal Reserve has been discussing 2% inflation as a target. The central bank’s website even enumerates its rationale, addressing the fact that inflation might be problematic for those with low incomes, but could still be beneficial overall.
“The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that inflation of 2 percent over the longer run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability. When households and businesses can reasonably expect inflation to remain low and stable, they are able
The cost of money is so low that after you adjust for inflation, bonds don t pay anything, said Ellis, the founder and former managing partner of Greenwich Associates. If bonds are a bad bet because of inflation, the inflation is going to affect equities as well and it will reduce the value of equity securities, no doubt about it, he said.
Bonds are Ellis s latest fascination, a new chapter in the eighth edition of Winning the Loser s Game, released on Tuesday.
According to him, the traditional 60-40 stock-bond tilt has become outdated, with investor individualism taking precedent.
Each investor has a different amount of wealth, different amount of income, different amount of savings capacity, different attitude towards risk, Ellis said.