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Calculated Risk

I m tracking sales and inventory for many local markets. Houston real estate held to record territory in June with buyers continuing to seize upon historically low interest rates as they purchased homes from among a limited supply. Despite the strong buying activity, the pace was slightly slower in the year-over-year comparison. According to the latest Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) Market Update, single-family homes sales were up 13.6 percent compared to last June, with 10,638 units sold versus 9,362 a year earlier. That becomes the market’s thirteenth consecutive positive month of sales. On a year-to-date basis, home sales remain 25.9 percent ahead of 2020’s record pace.

Calculated Risk

7/13/2021 01:49:00 PM Note: I m tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. Total Residential Units Sold in June 2021 were 10,386, up 12.9% from 9,203 in June 2020. Active Residential Listings in June 2021 were 10,227, down 40.8% from 17,285 in June 2020. Months of Supply was 1.2 Months in June 2021, compared to 2.4 Months in June 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the Minnesota Realtors® shows inventory in Minnesota since 2012. Inventory had been trending down, and then was somewhat flat for a few years, and then declined significantly during the pandemic. Active inventory was up 14.2% from the previous month, and up 24.6% seasonally from the all time low in February 2021.   Usually, at this time of the year, we d expect active inventory of around 23,000 in Minnesota, so current inventory is still extremely low.

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
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Calculated Risk

Tracking existing home inventory will be very important this year. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 2nd, inventory was at 373 thousand (7 day average), compared to 654 thousand the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 43.0%. A week ago, inventory was at 373 thousand, and was down 44.0% YoY.   Seasonally, inventory has bottomed.   Inventory was about 21.6% above the record low in early April. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.  Altos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases, although still well below a normal rate for June.

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