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The Trump legacy

The Trump legacy
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Armenian lessons, Belarusian hopes: Regime change in Russia s sphere of influence

Is genuine regime change possible in Russia’s sphere of influence? Conventional wisdom suggests that faced with an imminent revolutionary threat, Russia consistently strives to fulfill its ‘preventive counter-revolution’ agenda in its neighbourhood and beyond. While the 2018 Velvet Revolution in Armenia seemed to defy the Russian ‘counter-revolution’ policy, its disappointing outcomes prompt us to conclude that there was barely a real revolution. Nevertheless, successful, mass-based opposition to a ruling elite tends to serve as an example to discontented elements in other countries. The question as to whether Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime in Belarus is resilient enough to shield itself from the diffusion effects of the Velvet Revolution provokes an inquiry into the essential similarities and differences between the two regimes.

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