Counting continues after the weekend election in Tasmania, with Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein reiterating he'll stand down if his party doesn't secure majority.
Liberalsâ new âJoe Lyonsâ claims historic third-term win
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Tasmanian Liberals are confident they will be able to form a historic, third-term majority government based on counting in the Hobart-based seat of Clark, where the Labor Party received the lowest vote in its history in a state it used to dominate.
One senior Tasmanian Liberal said they expected Premier Peter Gutwein to honour his promise to resign if the party failed to gain enough seats needed to govern in its own right, but counting in Clark made that unlikely and a 4 per cent swing against the Labor Party meant the opposition would not be in a position to form government.
Liberals Win Tasmania Election
Tasmania’s Liberal Party has claimed a historic third straight election win but whether it can govern in majority probably won’t be known for days.
Premier Peter Gutwein is confident but not assured of winning the 13th seat needed to deliver the government a majority in the state’s 25-member lower house.
Counting continues after Saturday night’s poll, with eyes on the crucial race in the Hobart-based electorate of Clark where independents Kristie Johnston and Sue Hickey are polling strongly.
Liberal success in one of the two in-doubt Clark seats could deliver the party a majority, while independent success could give rise to a kingmaker.
The Tasmanian election will be held on Saturday, with polls closing at 6pm AEST. A uComms poll for the left-wing Australia Institute, conducted April 21 from a sample of 1,023, gave the Liberals 41.4%, Labor 32.1%, the Greens 12.4%, Independents 11.0% and Others 3.1%.
This poll is in marked contrast to the last publicly available Tasmanian poll: an EMRS poll in February that gave the Liberals 52%, Labor 27%, Greens 14% and 7% for all Others.
The uComms poll is likely to be the only poll of the election campaign. There will be no pre-election EMRS poll, and Newspoll did not do a pre-election survey in 2018.
Analyst Kevin Bonham says there are many reasons to doubt this uComms poll. If previous uComms polls in November 2019 and 2020 are benchmarked against comparable EMRS polls, the Liberal vote is well below EMRS – and EMRS understated the Liberals by an average 1.8% at the last four Tasmanian elections.
Author: Adrian Beaumont
(MENAFN - The Conversation) This week s Newspoll, conducted April 21-24 from a sample of 1,510, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, four weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up one), 38% Labor (steady), 10% Greens (down one) and 3% One Nation (up one). Figures are from The Poll Bludger .
59% (up four) were satisfied with Scott Morrison s performance, and 37% (down three) were dissatisfied, for a net approval of +22, up seven points. Anthony Albanese s net approval fell five points to -3. Morrison led as better PM by 56-30 (52-32 four weeks ago).
In my article last fortnight, I suggested a backlash against political correctness was making sexual misbehaviour more acceptable. The Coalition and Morrison s recovery in this poll appears to validate that argument.