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NZD/USD starts of flat, better bid following risk-on Friday

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Forex This Week: Inflation and consumption differentials, Delta variant to catch market attention

7/9/2021 3:28:00 PM GMT Core Consumer Price Index (Tuesday, 12.30 GMT) rose in June above 4%, it could push the Federal Reserve to tighten its policy sooner rather than later, beginning by printing fewer dollars. A taper of the bank s bond-buying scheme could benefit the US dollar and put pressure on most major currencies and gold. On the other hand, inflation may have peaked last month – perhaps due to diminishing base effects, the sharp fall in prices seen in the spring of 2020. In that case, the Fed would feel comfortable purchasing $120 billion in bonds for longer. On Wednesday, investors will also eye the UK Consumer Price Index (0600 GMT) data for June. Inflation surprised to the upside in May with a jump from 1.8% to 2.1% YoY. Nevertheless, that figure was driven higher by base effects – the fall in prices that time last year. Moreover, the BOE s dovishness also implies inflation is unlikely to surge, which keeps the GBP capped.

Increase In Core Inflation Won t Be Transitory

Increase In Core Inflation Won t Be Transitory Bad Timing For decades the Federal Reserve anticipated inflation whenever the Unemployment Rate fell to a low level. In 9 of the last 10 recessions since 1954 the Fed hiked the federal funds rate over a period of time until they went too far. The Unemployment Rate subsequently jumped as the economy entered a recession causing the Fed to slash the federal funds rate. This pattern is consistent especially with benefit of hindsight. The one exception was in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait causing oil prices to spike and a brief war. Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.

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