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The year-over-year
rate of growth of the majority of coincident indices improved or was little changed relative to last month - but only half of the indices are in expansion. It should be obvious the economy entered a recession in March 2020 but likely exited in May or June 2020. Normally a recession ends when the economy starts improving.
Analyst Opinion of the Current Status of the Coincident Indicators
The reality is that most of the economic indicators have moderate to significant backward revision - and this month they are generally showing improved growth. Out of this group of coincident indicators discussed in this post, only ECRI, The New York Fed s Weekly Economic Indicator, and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index have no backward revision - and are designed to track the economy in real-time.
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The European Central Bank left rates unchanged, maintained a cautious outlook.
Markit will release on Friday the preliminary estimates of its April PMIs.
EUR/USD turned bearish in the near-term, could approach the 1.1900 area.
The greenback surged in the American session, posting gains against most of its major rivals. The EUR/USD pair hit an intraday high of 1.2069 to close the day in the 1.2000 area after the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting failed to trigger some action. The ECB maintained rates unchanged as widely estimated, while President Lagarde repeated well-known concepts. European policymakers acknowledged signs of economic improvement but conditioned further progress to the pandemic developments. She also noted that the central bank didn’t discuss reducing the PEPP and that they will continue buying bonds at a faster pace.
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