Expectations that the country s GDP would record growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2020-21 are getting stronger on account of various reforms undertaken by the government in the last ten months, PHDCCI said on Saturday. It said out of the 10 indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends) of economic and business activity tracked by PHDCCI, nine have performed positive. The Indian economy shrunk by a record 23.9 per cent in June quarter and saw a contraction of 7.5 per cent in second quarter. On the back of various reforms undertaken by the government in last 10 months along with a demand boosting and investment inducing Budget, the expectations of a positive GDP growth in Q3 and in Q4 FY 2020-21 are becoming strong, it added.
ICRA sees a multi-speed recovery in FY22
FY22 GDP value will only mildly surpass the level in FY20
10% GDP growth, in these gloomy times? Too good to be true, isn t it? It s something that looked like a pipe dream back in the March-April period when the country saw an unprecedented lockdown that not only slammed the brakes on growth engines, but brought life to a screeching halt. But if FY21 was marred by COVID-19 gloom, FY22 is being pegged as the harbinger of good news or in other words, a year of hope.
Green shoots are visible across the board, be it manufacturing, consumption and demand or auto sales, as the pandemic-ravaged economy starts to reopen. With the official advance GDP estimates for FY21 pointing to a 7.7% contraction, much less than what was feared, there certainly is some room for optimism. Yes, it may be the biggest annual contraction on record, but the pace of recovery is something that many are taking heart from.
Fitch Solutions holds a more optimistic view on Vietnam’s economic rebound in 2021, with its real GDP growth forecast at 8.6%, against the government’s 6.5% target.