An Insight Into Fed Thinking
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The market is sticking with the new script of indifferent starts, with a small spurt higher, and then drifting lower.
I’m not sure what’s driving the weakness at the moment. There were comments from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan that he expects inflation to push “well in excess” of 2.5% before moderating. The headlines could have trigger algorithms, but it’s not necessarily news.
We’ll get the FOMC minutes later, and maybe, there will be more insight on Fed thinking. The key is a show of unity around the Powell Doctrine, which centers around holding rates down into 2024, while allowing inflation to run hot for an extended period of time.
Fed presses ahead on policy debate as economy takes off
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Fed presses ahead on policy debate as economy takes off
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Key Events This Week: Minutes, Services And Producer Prices
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Already the reaction to March s surprisingly strong jobs report could be a sign of more to come. March s report Friday showed the surge in new jobs to 916,000, nearly 250,000 more than expected.
After the data was released Friday, the fed funds futures market began to immediately bring forward expectations for a Fed rate hike to December 2022, from the spring of 2023. Friday took us to the other side, said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group. That s a full year ahead of where the [Fed forecasts] are telling us the majority of the committee is. They re still looking at 2024 as their first hike.