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Researchers can not determine when and where exactly an earthquake will occur. But, a new study that utilizes supercomputer power accounts for the unique characteristics of the faults in the area, allowing seismologists to better understand what threats in Southern California might exist.
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Large earthquakes are infrequent. We simply haven t seen such quakes on most California faults, says Kevin Milner, a computer scientist at the Southern California Earthquake Center and lead author on the new study.
The fact that most faults in California have not hosted a large damaging earthquake since modern records have been kept, says Milner, leaves researchers to infer what types of earthquakes we think are possible on those faults. This uncertainty creates challenges for hazard assessment and planning.
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IMAGE: A randomly selected 3,000-year segment of the physics-based simulated catalog of earthquakes in California, created on Frontera. view more
Credit: Kevin Milner, University of Southern California
Massive earthquakes are, fortunately, rare events. But that scarcity of information blinds us in some ways to their risks, especially when it comes to determining the risk for a specific location or structure. We haven t observed most of the possible events that could cause large damage, explained Kevin Milner, a computer scientist and seismology researcher at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) at the University of Southern California. Using Southern California as an example, we haven t had a truly big earthquake since 1857 that was the last time the southern San Andreas broke into a massive magnitude 7.9 earthquake. A San Andreas earthquake could impact a much larger area than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and other large earthquakes can o
Supercomputers Simulate 800,000 Years of California Earthquakes to Pinpoint Risks
Massive earthquakes are rare events and the scarcity of information about them can blind us to their risks, especially when it comes to determining the danger to a specific location or structure.
Scientists are now working to improve the calculations of danger by combining maps and histories of known faults with the use of supercomputers to simulate potential shaking deep into the future in California. The method is described in an article just published in the
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
“People always want to know: When is the next ‘Big One’ coming,” said coauthor Bruce Shaw, a seismologist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “Chaos always gets in the way of answering that question. But what we can get at is
Tension has been building along the San Andreas fault for centuries, and experts predict a ground splitting quake will strike when the fault line finally ruptures.
Experts have for some time been warning of the Big One – a huge earthquake measuring at least a magnitude 7.9, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).
Now, experts are hoping to predict when the Big One might hit.
Previously, it has been impossible to predict when an earthquake might hit, but scientists want to change that.
California earthquake: Experts hoping to predict the next Big One (Image: GETTY)
California is no stranger to earthquakes (Image: GETTY)
2021 National Disaster Resilience Conference Call for Presentations Now Open
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