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Calculated Risk: Small Business Optimism Increased in April

Most of this survey is noise, but sometimes there is some information. From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): April 2021 Report The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in April, an increase of 1.6 points from March. The Optimism Index has increased 4.8 points over the past three months since January but a record 44% of owners reported job openings they could not be filled. . Strong job growth continued for small businesses in April. Firms increased employment by 0.31 workers per firm on average over the past few months. The average has been above 0.30 since December 2020, historically an exceptional performance. emphasis added

DXY: Dollar index forecast ahead of the US consumer inflation numbers

DXY: Dollar index forecast ahead of the US consumer inflation numbers Economists expect the data will show that consumer prices surged last month. Better than expected numbers will be bullish for the US dolar. The US dollar index (DXY) declined to the lowest level since February 25 ahead of the closely watched US consumer price index (CPI) data. It dropped to $90, which is 3.5% below its highest level on March 31st. DXY chart US consumer inflation data ahead The US will publish the latest CPI data on Wednesday. These are important numbers because they tend to influence monetary policy, which in turn affects the US dollar. 

Citing labor shortage, US states end pandemic jobless benefits

Citing labor shortage, US states end pandemic jobless benefits AFP 3 days ago AFP © Nicholas Kamm US President Joe Biden has pushed back on the idea extra jobless payments are hindering hiring A handful of US states have announced they will end extra unemployment benefits provided by the federal government, which they blame for creating a shortage of workers. Iowa on Tuesday joined Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Montana and South Carolina in cutting off the payments that through September are providing $300 a week on top of regular state benefits. But President Joe Biden pushed back against the argument that the extra payments funded by the $1.9 trillion rescue package Congress approved in March mean people are being paid to stay home rather than go to work.

Job Openings Top 8 Million for First Time Ever, Adding to Worries of Labor Shortage

Job Openings Top 8 Million for First Time Ever, Adding to Worries of Labor Shortage 11 May 2021 Businesses in the U.S. would be on a hiring spree if only they could find workers willing to fill open jobs. Job openings in the U.S. jumped to 8.1 million in March, a record high, the Labor Department said Tuesday. The number of job openings is not only above pre-pandemic levels, it exceeds the total job deficit from the pre-pandemic level. According to the Department of Labor, there were 7.6 million fewer people in employed in April 2021 than February 2020. The openings level also exceeds the all-time peak of 7.57 million set in November 2018. Economists had forecast 7.455 million openings following the initial report of 7.367 million in February. February’s number was revised up to 7.5 million.

U S job openings soar to highest level on record - Providence Business News

U.S. job openings soar to highest level on record U.S. EMPLOYERS posted a record number of available jobs in March, starkly illustrating the desperation of businesses to hire more people as the economy expands. Yet total job gains increased only modestly that month. / AP FILE PHOTO/KEITH SRAKOCIC WASHINGTON (AP) – United States employers posted a record number of available jobs in March, illustrating starkly the desperation of businesses trying to fine new workers as the country emerges from the pandemic and the economy expands. Yet total job gains increased only modestly, according to a Labor Department report issued Tuesday. The figures follow an April jobs report last week that was far weaker than expected, largely because companies appear unable to find the workers they need, even with the unemployment rate elevated at 6.1%.

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