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at 11:40 am on January 20, 2021 | 18 comments
New Treasury data shows that the federal government received 75,143 applications for the HomeBuilder grant during the first phase of the scheme, including more than 35,000 during the last three weeks of 2020.
The Treasury had forecast in June that it would receive just 27,000 applications for the grants by 31 December. The unexpected surge in demand for HomeBuilder will result in the cost of the scheme rising from $688 million to around $2 billion. It has also been behind the unprecedented rise in new home sales, as reported yesterday by the HIA:
As well as the huge lift in construction finance commitments:
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at 12:05 am on December 23, 2020 | 8 comments
Last week, the National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation (NHFIC) forecast that Greater Melbourne’s and Greater Sydney’s housing markets would be thrown into structural oversupply as immigration collapses:
With the release of the June quarter population figures from the ABS, I have plotted population growth against dwelling construction across Victoria and NSW in order to gauge the structural supply situation.
According to this data, Victoria is facing the biggest oversupply over the foreseeable future.
As shown below, Victoria’s population growth fell to 98,000 in the year to June 2020 versus commencements of 58,600 and completions of 64,800:
MacroBusiness
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The National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation (NHFIC) has released its
“first flagship housing report”, which claims that almost 200,000 homes will be freed up over the next two years because Australia’s international borders have been closed to immigrants due to the pandemic. It expects this to put downward pressure on rents, particularly in the Sydney and Melbourne apartment markets:
The global COVID-19 pandemic has caused the largest shock to population growth since early last century, triggering a forecast fall in new demand for housing of 286,000 dwellings over the next five years.
Despite the impacts of the pandemic, a recovery in construction activity from the COVID-19 recession is underway – led by detached housing – with total net additions expected to rise to 181,000 in 2021 from 170,000 in 2020 on the back of the monetary and Federal and State Government fiscal stimulus put in place this year.