South Africa has an estimated population approaching 60 million. To achieve herd immunity against COVID-19, the government recently set the ambitious goal of vaccinating 67% of the population - roughly 40 million people. According to the outline of this plan, this would be achieved within 2021. But is this ambitious target even feasible?
South Africa’s Minister of Health, Dr Zweli Mkhize (centre). The government has been criticised for not having an actionable plan on vaccines. Photo by Darren Stewart/Gallo Images via Getty Images
Besides the reality that the country doesn’t yet have the 80 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine required for 40 million people, very little planning has gone into how these vaccines are going to be deployed, writes
Shabir Madhi.
South Africa has an estimated population approaching 60 million. To achieve herd immunity against Covid-19, the government recently set the ambitious goal of vaccinating 67% of the population - roughly 40 million people. According to the outline of this plan, this would be achieved within 2021.
Ina Opperman Vaccines are the most effective and permanent health responses, as demonstrated in the past with the smallpox, poliomyelitis, hepatitis B, measles, tetanus, diphtheria (whooping cough) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines that reduced morbidity and mortality. (Photo by Dibyangshu SARKAR / AFP)
The good news, according to an analysis by a group of scientists from Wits University, is that we can in fact afford it and they have done the math.
They have illustrated that the overall cost of all three phases of a vaccine roll-out in South Africa, based on the AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccine and Covax supplies, would be R7.4-billion, with an added R1.2-billion for nursing costs. This means a total outlay of R8.6-billion.