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at 8:30 am on August 5, 2021 | 0 comments
A strange one-two punch overnight on the back of US economic prints, namely a disappointing private jobs data print and then a booming service PMI, all wrapped in a nice ball by the latest round of Fed hawkish comments sending Wall Street lower and currency volatility through the roof. Never a dull moment! Treasury yields also roundtripped but ended up where they started with the 10 year still at multi month lows while commodity markets finished clearly to the downside, with oil selling off another 3%, copper down 1% and gold doing its undollar thing with a near $50 roundtrip but still closing above the $1800USD per ounce level.
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at 9:00 am on August 4, 2021 | 9 comments
Equities bounced back on Wall Street as corporate earnings overshadowed everything else, although stronger US factory orders and more Fed talk supporting a gradual taper helped as well. Treasury yields however spell out the better picture and remain down at multi month lows while currency markets saw a big of USD strength eke back in. Commodities were again mixed to the downside, with oil slipping further after its poor start to the week while gold once more hovered just above the $1800USD per ounce level.
Bitcoin is slipping again, falling through the $39K level overnight after a lack of buying action has seen its false breakout on Friday night dwindle back to the previous week lows. The four hourly chart still shows a series of lower lows since the Monday morning gap with price now pushing through nominal trailing ATR support so expect possible volatility ahead at these key levels:
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at 9:00 am on August 3, 2021 | 3 comments
A big retraction in Treasury yields overnight on the back of a disappointing US ISM Manufacturing print saw Wall Street give pause while commodities sold off sharply. Currency markets were little changed again, with WTI and Brent crude falling more than 3% while gold prices remained just above the $1800USD per ounce level.
Bitcoin has been able to only just hold on to its breakout gains after pushing through resistance at the $40K level on Friday night and holding over the weekend. The four hourly chart however shows a series of lower lows since the Monday morning gap with price nearing trailing ATR support which needs to be respected before any further leg higher:
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See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
Key GDP and unemployment data in the US overnight put paid to the idea that the Fed may still be hesitant to normalise interest rates with the USD falling back against all the majors while Wall Street remained elevated. Commodities all rose in response to the weak USD with gold surging strongly above the key $1800USD per ounce level while the Australian dollar put in a new two week high.
Bitcoin is still holding on to its start of week gains, but momentum is wavering here as it hits resistance at the $40K level overnight. The four hourly chart shows a tightening symmetrical pattern that should result in a volatile breakout either way, watch trailing ATR resistance at $36K which has been heavily supported here: