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Should we sell in May and go away?

Stock market operators are a superstitious lot. Trained to calculate probable, future outcomes and eager to recognise patterns in random market gyrations they a

Morgan Stanley: This Is The Biggest Threat To The Red-Hot Global Recovery

by Tyler Durden By Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley s Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics A year ago, when the global economy was in the depths of the Great Covid-19 Recession, we argued for a V-shaped recovery and the return of inflation. 12 months on, deep scepticism has given way to broad agreement. The debate now is whether the strong recovery and pick-up in inflation were just a spurt driven by policy support and reopening. If so, global growth could slow as it did in 2012 when policy-makers withdrew fiscal and monetary policy support. The resulting weak growth and lowflation environment raised fears of secular stagnation.

WTO: Global trade costs declined 15% in 19 years

Advertisement The WTO posted this via its official Twitter handle on Friday, where it indicated that further updates on global trade costs will consist of the cost of market uncertainty, including from COVID-19. The latest WTO trade cost index report reflects the cost of trading internationally relative to trading domestically. The index includes all costs that burden foreign sales more than domestic sales such as transportation costs, trade policy barriers, costs to comply with foreign regulations, communication costs, transaction costs or information costs. Advertisement The report covered bilateral trade costs of 43 countries and 33 sectors between 2000 and 2018. “Global trade costs have declined by 15 percent between 2000 and 2018. Overall trade costs are higher for women, SMEs, and unskilled workers,” the report read.

Asset Allocation Weekly (May 14, 2021)

May 14, 2021 Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a weekly basis in this report, updating the report every Friday, along with an accompanying podcast and chart book. May 14, 2021 Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 (GFC), any rapid rise in home prices has tended to spark fears of another bubble bursting. U.S. home prices have recently been up more than 10% from one year earlier, marking their strongest gains since the recovery period right after the GFC. However, those gains have been overshadowed by the even bigger increases in Canada. Home prices north of the border rose 13% in the year ended December 2020, and they were up an even stronger 20.1% in the 12 months ended March 2021 (see chart). Does that mean the Canadian housing market is in a bubble? What’s the risk that Canadian home prices will crash back to earth, dragging d

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