The infection surges are another stark warning of how quickly the pandemic, driven by more infectious variants like B.1.617, first identified in India, can get out of control.
COVID-19: which countries will be the next to see a big spike in cases?
The Conversation
20 May 2021, 08:42 GMT+10
Beneath the many complexities of the marathon that is the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a simple hypothesis: if the coronavirus is introduced into a susceptible population, and those people are able to mix, then there will be significant community transmission. Across 2020 and 2021, we have seen this happen around the world, including, recently, in India.
Could we see further situations like those in India, with cases rapidly spiking and health systems being overwhelmed? The short answer, sadly, is yes.
Globally, there s been an encouraging downturn in daily new cases in May 2021, but despite this, cases are still at a very high level overall, with worldwide statistics masking huge differences across countries and areas. The global vaccine rollout is also progressing slowly, with most of the world still susceptible to COVID-19. These factors mean there s potential for
Global excess deaths during the pandemic range from 7 to 13 million lives lost according to new estimate
Last week, the
Economist published a special report, a modeling study looking at excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic globally. As of May 2021, they concluded, there have been 7.1 to 12.7 million excess deaths worldwide. Their central estimate places the toll at 10.2 million people three times the official figures who would have otherwise been living today, had the world’s governments responded in earnest to the threat posed by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.
As the
Economist explained, the number of fatalities officially reported country by country grossly underestimates the actual figures. This is a result of the lack of testing to confirm the cause of death and a lag in registering deaths. Inundated health systems also mean people who died at home have never been counted. Using “excess deaths,” a process that counts the number of people who die in a regio
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Florida still performs better than most states when it comes to reporting deaths, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. USF epidemiologist Jason Salemi breaks down the numbers.
More than 51,100 Floridians have died from COVID-19 in Florida, according to estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The prominent research institution, based out of the University of Washington, produces COVID-19 models that have been closely watched by health officials around the country throughout the pandemic.
This month the IHME updated its projections to reflect its own calculations of COVID-19 deaths, rather than figures reported by states and countries.
Countries tipped to see the next big Covid spike
Worldwide statistics mask huge differences across countries and areas
Daniel Smith
Updated
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Beneath the many complexities of the marathon that is the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a simple hypothesis: if the coronavirus is introduced into a susceptible population, and those people are able to mix, then there will be significant community transmission. Across 2020 and 2021, we have seen this happen around the world, including, recently,in India.