Source:
PTI
New Delhi: The Southwest monsoon, which brings nearly 75 per cent of rainfall to the country, is expected to be normal this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday, April 16. The Long Period Average (LPA) will be 98 per cent with an error margin of plus and minus 5 per cent, said M Rajeevan, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Rainfall in Odisha, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya is likely to be below normal, but normal or above normal in the rest of the country, he said while releasing the first Long Range Forecast for the four-month rainfall period from June to September.
IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall
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IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall
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Private forecaster Skymet sees ‘healthy normal’ monsoon this year
April 13, 2021
Private forecaster Skymet Weather expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘healthy normal’ assessed at 103 per cent (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent) of the long-period average (LPA) of 880.6 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
This is the third time on a trot that the country will have a normal monsoon. India Meteorological Department (IMD), the national forecaster, is expected to come up with its own long-range forecast for the four-month season soon.
Monsoon probabilities
According to Skymet, the monsoon probabilities for June-July-August-September are: 10 per cent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110 per cent of LPA); 15 per cent chance of above normal (between 105 to 110 per cent); 60 per cent chance of normal (96 to 104 per cent); 15 per cent chance of below normal (90 to 95 per cent); and practically nil (zero) per cent chance of drough