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Date Time
Consumer expectations stabilize despite partisan extremes
The Consumer Sentiment Index has shown only relatively small variations since the pandemic started, averaging 81.5 in 2020, marginally above January’s 79.0. Needless to say, Sentiment levels were well below the average of 97.0 from 2017 to 2019, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
The same relative stability at depressed COVID-19 levels was shown by the Expectations Index. Importantly, the level of these key confidence indicators remained well above prior cyclical lows despite the sudden and unparalleled collapse in economic activity.
Despite unyielding job and income disparities, as precautionary motives begin to ease, accumulated savings will spark a significant gain in spending in late 2021, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York s Center for Microeconomic Data released the December 2020
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The survey shows a continuation of relatively modest monthly household spending growth compared to pre-pandemic levels. While the share of respondents who reported making a large purchase during the past four months has increased for most spending categories since April 2020, the share reporting spending on vacations dropped further to a new series low. Year-ahead total household spending growth expectations instead rose sharply, continuing its rebound from the steep decline in spending expectations measured in April. Similarly, median year-ahead expected growth in non-essential and essential household spending both rose to new series highs. Expected spending responses to an unexpected 10% increase in income shows an average 36.3% would be used to pay down debt, 44.5% would be saved or invested, and 19.3% would be spent or donated.