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As Washington teeters on the edge of chaos, the U.S. economy continues to send signals that it needs help, with more than 1 million people filing new jobless claims last week.
About 869,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in state programs last week, the Labor Department said Wednesday, while another 398,000 applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the temporary federal program that provides benefits for self-employed and gig workers – and that is scheduled to expire in a matter of days if the $900 billion relief package passed by Congress fails to become law.
The numbers show a modest decrease on a week-over-week basis but remain at exceptionally high levels. “The economy is still pretty soft,” Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James Financial, told Bloomberg. “The level of jobless claims suggests there’s still labor-market weakness.”
Personal income decreased $221.8 billion (1.1 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $218.0 billion (1.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $63.3 billion (0.4 percent).
Real DPI decreased 1.3 percent in November and Real PCE decreased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index had no change. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index had no change .The decrease in personal income was below expectations, and the decrease in PCE was also below expectations
The November PCE price index increased 1.1 percent year-over-year and the November PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.4 percent year-over-year.
Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad: Dec. 22 The Washington Post on President Donald Trump’s final month in office: While Americans prepare to celebrate the holiday season, President Trump and his hardcore supporters are contemplating a turbulent final month that could make the rest of his chaotic presidency look placid. […]
GDP Data Displays An Uneven Recession
December 22, 2020 - BEA Revises Third Quarter 2020 GDP Growth Slightly Upward to 33.44%:
In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2020, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +33.44% annual rate, up 0.37 percentage points (pp) from their previous estimate and up 64.83pp from the prior quarter.
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As was the case with the previous estimate, none of the revisions are material. Once again the only minor adjustments worth mentioning were in consumer spending (up +0.22pp in aggregate, and fixed commercial investment (up +0.16pp).
Maine’s economy staged a strong rebound over the summer.
The federal Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that the state’s economic output, as measured by gross domestic product, rose at a 37.3% annual rate during the July-to-September quarter. Maine’s economic output fell at a 34% rate in the April-to-June quarter, the result of state-ordered shutdowns due to the pandemic.
The sectors of the economy that staged the biggest rebounds in the 3rd quarter were “health care and social assistance” and “accommodation and food services.” Both areas had slowed severely in the 2nd quarter.
There are signs that Maine’s economy, like the nation’s, is slowing again. Since the end of September, the number of weekly first-time claims for unemployment benefits has doubled, from about 1,500 at the end of September to 3,000 earlier this month.