It’s tempting to say that miners are showing strength compared to gold based on the GDX’s performance, but other mining proxies say otherwise. Just because a house is standing doesn t mean its foundations are solid, and that s exactly the case with the miners. There’s one extra thing that I would like to point out about mining stocks’ technical picture today (Apr. 8), and that’s their performance relative to gold. Some investors might say that mining stocks are showing strength compared to gold as the GDX to gold ratio broke above its declining resistance line. However, I don’t think it’s fair to say so. I think that seeing a breakout in the
S&P 500 is still consolidating Monday‘s sharp gains, showered with liquidity. Yet it seems that eking out further gains is getting harder as the price action took the index quite far from its key moving averages. If I had to pick one sign of stiffer headwinds ahead, it would be the tech sector‘s reaction to another daily retreat in Treasury yields – the sector didn‘t rally, and neither did the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Value stocks saved the day, and it appears we‘re about to see them start doing better again, relatively speaking. Yes, the risk-reward ratio for the bulls is at unsavory levels in the short run. What about being short at this moment then? It all depends upon the trading style, risk tolerance and time horizon. I‘m not looking for stocks making a major top here as the bull run is intact thanks to:
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value not yielding an inch. A rare constellation given the the long-dated Treasuries performance especially – as if the narratives were flipped, and value „could“ move up on rising yields. Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill. Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table –
Previously dismissed, the USDX may now be back with a vengeance. Sentiment is swinging away from shorts and there is an uncanny historical pattern. With a potential bearish pattern already broken, the USDX is resuming its journey northward. And why is it geared to do well? Is it because the U.S. economy is ripping head? Definitely not - that’s not happening. It’s rather because other regions (think Europe and Japan) are doing even worse. The dollar’s imminent rise doesn’t mean that gold can’t still experience some very short-term upswing, but for the medium-term, the precious metals continue to face bearish headwinds.