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New York Manufacturing Activity Edges Slightly Higher In December

New York Manufacturing Activity Edges Slightly Higher In December WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday showed regional manufacturing activity edged slightly higher in the month of December. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index slipped to 4.9 in December from 6.3 in November, but a positive reading still indicates growth in regional manufacturing activity. Economist had expected the index to dip to 5.8. Empire State manufacturing growth pulled back to a softer pace of expansion in December as the recovery cools and resurgent infection rates weigh on activity, said Oren Klachkin, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.

The U S economy is showing more coronavirus cracks and the fissures are growing

+0.16% forecasts sales at U.S. retailers to decline in November for the first time since April, when the coronavirus shut down most of the economy. A chief reason: fewer auto sales. Vehicle purchases at car dealers account for about 20% of overall retail sales. Even if autos are excluded, however, sales are likely to be tepid. Bars and restaurants, for example, saw a drop off in foot traffic as the weather cooled in the fall, coronavirus cases exploded, and new government rules were imposed. Gas sales, another big retail category, also probably declined. “The rise in Covid cases started to weigh on retail sales growth in October, and likely resulted in a drop in total sales in November,” wrote economist Katherine Judge of CIBC Capital Markets in a note to clients.

Economic forecasts are not an investment roadmap - Grand Rapids Business Journal

Grand Rapids Business Journal It is that time of year again where economic forecasters put together their predictions for the upcoming year. When I first got into the investment advisory services business in 2003, I loved reading these reports as I learned about the methodology and mathematical forecasting models used by some of the brightest minds in economics. I always tried to read at least five reports to obtain a variety of opinions to see if there were some common themes and correlations. Unfortunately, it was quite the opposite. I often found myself more confused as the standard deviation of numbers and percentages were all over the map.

Damien Venuto: The one thing Kiwi businesses don t need to hear in 2021

Damien Venuto: The one thing Kiwi businesses don t need to hear in 2021 10 Dec, 2020 04:52 AM 4 minutes to read Predictions are notoriously difficult to get right. Photo / Getty Images OPINION: Judging by the recent stream of emails and social media posts offering predictions and trends on what to expect in 2021, you d think 2020 was just a standard nothing to see here kind of year. It takes a particularly acute case of audacity to swirl the tea leaves after the past 12 months and pretend to see patterns revealing what comes next. Anyone venturing such predictions might bear in mind economist Irving Fisher s infamous claim, just before the Great Crash of 1929, that stock prices had reached a permanently high plateau . And even in less extreme times, numerous studies have shown that humans are notoriously bad at predicting the futures that don t benefit them.

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