Security Implications of the Iran-China Deal
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,019, May 10, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The implications of the newly signed Sino-Iranian deal go beyond economics. The deal also covers security matters pertaining to intelligence and military cooperation that provide both Iran and China with advantages over rival states.
The history of Sino-Iranian relations
During the rule of Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, the Sino-Iranian relationship was strained. At a time when socialist countries in the Middle East were moving quickly to establish diplomatic relations with China (Egypt and Syria in 1956 and Iraq in 1958), Iran had close ties to Western countries and recognized Taiwan as a sovereign state. However, as the ideological and political distance expanded between China and the Soviet Union in the 1960s, Tehran and Beijing found they had a common rival in Moscow and grew significantly closer.
The Khatam al-Anbiya Camp and the Future of the Revolutionary Guards’ Empire
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,014, May 3, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The West assumes that if the Islamist regime of Iran is granted some leeway, it will stop its aggression toward other nations. The Revolutionary Guards’ push for absolute power in Iran and belligerent empire-building across the Middle East suggest otherwise.
When Ali Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, he knew he lacked Khomeini’s charisma. He needed the power of the military to subdue his rivals and consolidate his position, and accordingly pulled the Revolutionary Guards closer to himself. At the same time, newly elected president Hashemi Rafsanjani, who, as wartime supreme commander, had nurtured his own close relationships with IRGC generals, sought to exploit the public resources of the nation with fewer restrictions. He attempted to partner with the IRGC in his “privatization” movement, whi
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The Gaza Rocket Attack on Israel: The Neighbors Smell Weakness
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,009, April 27, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
In the last decade and a half, Israel has enjoyed unprecedented security stability that has, in turn, enabled economic and technological prosperity that made it a world-class power. There are increasing signs of a change to this reality, and the recent rocket attack from the Gaza Strip is one of them.
On the night of April 23-24, terrorists fired 36 rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip. This attack was not a single incident that can be defined as an accidental launch error and certainly not a malfunction following a passing lightning storm, to which a number of past missile attacks have been attributed. It was a calculated move by the “resistance forces,” and it took place in the surrealistic reality in which an undeclared
Iran Is a Threat to Swedish National Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
In t
he recently published Swedish Security Service Yearbook 2020, which discusses the main security and intelligence challenges faced by Sweden over the past year, Iran is mentioned 14 times. The Islamic Republic, together with Russia and China, is a direct threat to Swedish national security.
The Swedish Security Service, Säkerhetspolisen, publishes an annual yearbook containing information on its most important areas of operation: counterintelligence, countersubversion, counterterrorism, protective security, and dignitary protection. The yearbook discusses the most serious security and intelligence threats to face Sweden over the previous year and the challenges it will face in the future.