April 1, 2021
Things are a little different this week, as we present a special 2021 season preview edition of the podcast. No listener emails (but keep ’em coming!), no special guest, no Moment of Culture, just me and the wonderful Ben Clemens walking you through every division and every team. Does it take nearly three and half hours? Of course it does. Is that a problem? Of course not! It’s a podcast, there are no limitations.
Music by late 70s/early 80s Boston-based cult art-punk legends Vitamin.
Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com.
April 1, 2021
A.J. Hinch’s first Opening Day as a player was on April 1, 1998. There were butterflies, and not for that reason alone. Catching and batting seventh in the Oakland A’s lineup, Hinch was making his big-league debut. I asked him about it during a recent Zoom call.
“I remember going into the game nervous on both ends,” admitted Hinch, who was 23 years old at the time. “I had to face Pedro Martinez in his first American League start, with the Red Sox, and I had to catch Tom Candiotti, who was a knuckleballer. I knew that the catching was going to be easier than the hitting.”
April 1, 2021
Leading 3-1 and one out away from being a World Series Champion, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Julio Urías faces Tampa Bay Rays infielder Willy Adames. The first two pitches of the at-bat, fastballs resulting in a swinging strike and a called strike, clock in at 94.9 mph and 94.1 mph. The last pitch of the at-bat (and subsequently the World Series) comes on the third pitch. Urias fires a third straight four-seam fastball, this time for a called strike three at 96.7 mph. This may not feel particularly fast in a day and age in which some pitchers consistently hit 100 mph, but for Urías, there was a little something extra behind that final pitch. Of the 682 four-seam fastballs that Urías threw in 2020, this pitch was the fastest. While it may have been a coincidence that his hardest-thrown pitch was also in the most important situation, I suspect the significance of the moment was a key factor.
April 1, 2021
Bold prediction season is the best. Just a chance to lay it on the line and lean in on the guys I am most excited about (or most unexcited about). For my bold predictions, going to go with an Ottoneu focus. And let’s get right to it.
1.
Nick Castellanos is a top 10 FanGraphs Points OF. His Depth Charts projection pegs him at a .337 wOBA, 32nd highest among OF. The market likes him a bit more – his $19.50 average salary in first-year FanGraphs Points leagues is 24th among OF. I think those are both too low. I was going to boldly predict a .360 wOBA, but THE BAT X has him at .361, so I feel the need to be bolder. Top 10 OF. Castellanos has been hitting the ball harder dating back to August 2019 and posted a career-high walk rate in 2020. He chased fewer pitches, too. I think he brings the strike outs back down, gets better batted ball luck, and breaks out in a big way.
April 1, 2021
Hopefully you enjoyed my earlier bold predictions piece earlier today. This one will be a tad bit bolder.
1. Manuel Margot is a top 30 outfielder.
Player A: 15 HR, 25 SBs, .256 avg
Player B: 18 HR, 21 SBs, .275 avg
Player A is Margot’s Steamer 600 projection and Player B is Starling Marte’s Steamer 600 projection. Clearly, you can’t guarantee 600 plate appearances for Margot, I love him this season considering he has been going outside the top 200. His defense should give him some leeway and with the injury risk on the Rays, it is not unlikely he finds his way to 600+ plate appearances.
2. Patrick Corbin is a top 15 SP