Real GVA expected to grow 3-4% in Jan-Mar
By IANS |
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Wed, Mar 3 2021 13:27 IST |
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Growth chart. (File Photo: IANS). Image Source: IANS News
Mumbai, March 3 : India s real gross value added (GVA) is likely to grow at 3-4 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the ongoing quarter of FY21 largely on the back of expected better growth during February and March.
A Motilal Oswal Financial Services report said that post the expected 3-4 per cent growth in the Q4, the overall contraction in real GVA for this fiscal would stand at 6.2 per cent. Overall, aggressive fiscal spending and relatively better farm activity seem to have driven up overall economic activity in the first month of 4QFY21. Additionally, as per early indicators, there are positive signs of sustained growth momentum, it said.
Economists wary despite uptick in Michigan s economy
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Michigan s overall economic performance was on the rise at the end of 2020, according to the most recent Economic Activity Index released Wednesday by Comerica Bank.
The index, released monthly by the Dallas-based bank, hit 108.6 in December, a full 25 percentage points higher than the historical low to which the index dropped in June. Nonetheless, economists say that not all is well in the economy.
Nine different variables are included in the bank s economic index: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
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Calculating GDP is usually relatively uncomplicated. The total amount of household consumption of goods and services is summed with corporate investments, government disbursals, and total nationwide exports and imports during a given period. By knowing how the economy has behaved previously and the trajectory of primary economic variables such as interest and foreign exchange rates, the performance of principal trading partners, and current prices of exports, among other factors, it is possible to predict the country’s production and consumption over subsequent months and years.
The same predictability isn’t possible when economic activity is suspended. “Usually, in major crises, the drop in demand goes to 4% or 5%. In this crisis, there are people talking about 40% or 70%. There’s no parallel. The level of uncertainty for any forecast this year is enormous,” says José Ronaldo de Castro Souza Júnior, director of Macroeconomic Studies and Research at the Institute of Appl
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