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Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
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Consumer Credit Demand, Supply, And Unmet Need During The Pandemic

Consumer Credit Demand, Supply, And Unmet Need During The Pandemic from Liberty Street Economics It is common during recessions to observe significant slowdowns in credit flows to consumers. It is more difficult to establish how much of these declines are the consequence of a decrease in credit demand versus a tightening in supply. In this post, we draw on survey data to examine how consumer credit demand and supply have changed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The evidence reveals a clear initial decline and recent rebound in consumer credit demand. We also observe a modest but persistent tightening in credit supply during the pandemic, especially for credit cards. Mortgage refinance applications are the main exception to this general pattern, showing a steep increase in demand and some easing in availability. Despite tightened standards, we find no evidence of a meaningful increase in unmet credit need.

Calculated Risk: Schedule for Week of May 2, 2021

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau. This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $74.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $71.1 Billion in February. - Wednesday, May 5th - mortgage purchase applications index. 8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 830,000 payroll jobs added in April, up from 517,000 added in March.

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