Excess deaths in England and Wales could already be back at normal levels
ONS figures will increase pressure on Boris Johnson to ease lockdown restrictions more quickly than current roadmap lays out
Excess deaths in England and Wales may already be back to normal levels following steep falls in recent weeks, experts have said.
The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures for death registrations show there were 13,809 overall deaths in England and Wales for the week ending Feb 19, some 2,182 above the five-year average – 18.8 per cent more than usual. In that week, the ONS reported 4,079 Covid deaths registered.
It will publish registered deaths for the week ending Feb 26 next Tuesday, but government data suggests there were around 1,636 deaths in England and Wales during that week. With around 2,443 fewer Covid deaths expected, the weekly figure would be slightly lower than the five-year average of 11,548, effectively ending the impact of the second wave.
Lockdown exit: Boris urged to ease restrictions as Covid deaths continue to sharply fall Oliver Trapnell
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The original model suggested that deaths would not fall below 200 deaths a day until mid-March, yet that point was reached on February 25. Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has promised that the easing of lockdown restrictions will be guided by data, not dates.
The most recent modelling projections by Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M) were crucial in the production of Boris Johnson s roadmap out of the pandemic.
Mark Woolhouse, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, told The Telegraph: If the phrase data-driven not date-driven has any meaning, then it must allow for the schedule for relaxing restrictions to be brought forward if the data are better than expected and not just putting the schedule back if the data are worse than expected.
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